Alabama: 5 players tested Positive for COVID

kcsu

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
10,179
Like
14,435
If CFB was serious about playing then NCAA and conferences needed to have strict protocols. They failed and let schools decide. Pretty obvious many schools did nothing once players returned other than give them a test.
What this tells me is that there is a significant percentage of the population that has already been exposed.
Based on the reports coming out of the college football players it might be as high as 30%.
 

upperdeck

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
16,427
Like
12,715
And its an area by area thing.. Upstate NY is clearly on the low end, but the areas with less control or more population is much higher. they did the random study but that was a long time ago, I am surprised colleges are not doing wider ones already, or they are and studying the data.

Didnt syracuse though have the kids come back in pods and try to keep those pods isolated?

it may also be a function of location to the school with family. We dont have a ton of kids with family local enough to interact once they are here.. Many of the southern schools have a whole roster of kids who may be coming and going around people they know?
 

dan7800

2019-20 Iggy Winner Minutes Per Game
Joined
Sep 24, 2014
Messages
1,857
Like
2,552
And its an area by area thing.. Upstate NY is clearly on the low end, but the areas with less control or more population is much higher. they did the random study but that was a long time ago, I am surprised colleges are not doing wider ones already, or they are and studying the data.

Didnt syracuse though have the kids come back in pods and try to keep those pods isolated?

it may also be a function of location to the school with family. We dont have a ton of kids with family local enough to interact once they are here.. Many of the southern schools have a whole roster of kids who may be coming and going around people they know?
As stated by one of our university's MD, testing for college age individuals is highly inaccurate (FN & FPs).
 

rrlbees

2017 ESPN Tourney Challenge Winner
Staff member
Joined
Aug 16, 2011
Messages
72,887
Like
98,227
What this tells me is that there is a significant percentage of the population that has already been exposed.
Based on the reports coming out of the college football players it might be as high as 30%.
30% of the population? Even with the CDC saying it may be 10x what we know, they said it was about 6-7% of the population.
 

FRANKIEFAN

All Conference
Joined
Apr 1, 2018
Messages
3,859
Like
2,669
Remember all the people who just aren’t going to catch it. Like every nurse that didn’t test positive. Factor in all the cases that folks never knew they had (totally different) and we might be closer than folks think to being out of the woods. Not sure it’s even worth reacting to athletes who feel perfectly fine testing positive. No they aren’t gonna leave campus to visit their grandparents in a nursing home.
 

Redrum

Walk On
Joined
Feb 25, 2020
Messages
156
Like
237
So take out the over 75 age group we have 40,000 deaths how many weren’t covid ? How many were really sick with underlying conditions ? If we take the 40,000 divide by our 330,000,000 population that’s .000013 percent! And I’m sure half of that is healthy people so it’s probably.00006% healthy people have died let’s fully re open and let’s say deaths quadrupled it’s still would be a1/4 of one percent!! Why aren’t these numbers shown on tv ? For anyone who has lost someone I’m sorry but we must stop this madness and move on
 

upperdeck

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
16,427
Like
12,715
But this also forgets that this number was done while actually somewhat controlling the speed of the virus and having some level of health care.. if you just open up willy nilly this will exponentially increase the rates of transmission and the deaths to numbers no one can predict.

You have to assume some people were saved by treatment.. If we have no place to treat them then the death rate climbs even more. I also doubt it just levels off because as more people get sick other parts of the society also break down.
 

RandomGuy

All Conference
Joined
Jun 19, 2017
Messages
2,942
Like
5,746
So take out the over 75 age group we have 40,000 deaths how many weren’t covid ? How many were really sick with underlying conditions ? If we take the 40,000 divide by our 330,000,000 population that’s .000013 percent! And I’m sure half of that is healthy people so it’s probably.00006% healthy people have died let’s fully re open and let’s say deaths quadrupled it’s still would be a1/4 of one percent!! Why aren’t these numbers shown on tv ? For anyone who has lost someone I’m sorry but we must stop this madness and move on
You need to move the decimal point(and you added a zero). Its .012%. Not sure why we discount over 75, or why we're comparing those that have it with those that dont.. If we use your 40,000 with the official # of cases? 1.5% mortality under 75.

Granted. I think we can all agree there are massive #'s of asymptomatic/mild cases. (need the #) Combined with antibody studies, it may be possible to use proper methodology, and have the mortality rate at slightly higher than the flu. Either way, the mortality math is definitely trending down.
 

RandomGuy

All Conference
Joined
Jun 19, 2017
Messages
2,942
Like
5,746
30% of the population? Even with the CDC saying it may be 10x what we know, they said it was about 6-7% of the population.
At 7% of the population, the mortality rate would be 0.55%.

To be twice as deadly as the flu, we would need 64 million currently infected. 19.39% of the population.

With the large # of football positives(upon return) I'm beginning to think the percentage may be higher than the CDCs estimate.
 
Last edited:

rrlbees

2017 ESPN Tourney Challenge Winner
Staff member
Joined
Aug 16, 2011
Messages
72,887
Like
98,227
Not sure of your math. The mortality rate of the flu is about .1%. Even if we assume the CDC number that those infected is 10x what we know, it would put the COVID mortality rate at .5%. 5 times more deadly as the flu.
 

RandomGuy

All Conference
Joined
Jun 19, 2017
Messages
2,942
Like
5,746
Not sure of your math. The mortality rate of the flu is about .1%. Even if we assume the CDC number that those infected is 10x what we know, it would put the COVID mortality rate at .5%. 5 times more deadly as the flu.
Right. Why I chose to use slightly higher than the flu.
At 7%(pop) its .55%, at 10X its .49% (23Mil/26Mil infected)

To be twice as deadly as the flu(as some believe), we'd need 64 Million infected(or 19% plus. I am beginning to think the recent CFB testing may indicate a larger # than the CDC estimate. They'll know the answer for that age group, if they analyze those numbers. So they probably wont. :-(
 

rrlbees

2017 ESPN Tourney Challenge Winner
Staff member
Joined
Aug 16, 2011
Messages
72,887
Like
98,227
Right. Why I chose to use slightly higher than the flu.
At 7%(pop) its .55%, at 10X its .49% (23Mil/26Mil infected)

To be twice as deadly as the flu(as some believe), we'd need 64 Million infected(or 19% plus. I am beginning to think the recent CFB testing may indicate a larger # than the CDC estimate. They'll know the answer for that age group, if they analyze those numbers. So they probably wont. :-(
did we get disconnected and are talking different things? I’m talking #deaths/#infected.
 

RandomGuy

All Conference
Joined
Jun 19, 2017
Messages
2,942
Like
5,746
did we get disconnected and are talking different things? I’m talking #deaths/#infected.
Same. Our #'s match. I used the CDC 7% and 10 times known cases. (23mil/26mil) Estimated mortality of .5% I DID add that we need 64Million infected for those that believe its twice as deadly as the flu. I may have chosen brevity over a more detailed explanation.
 

Niastri

2nd String
Joined
Aug 28, 2011
Messages
537
Like
492
WOW.

Is it possible that WAY WAY WAY more folks have it than the official #? 1.2M active cases is 0.3%. That would be 1 positive player, per FOUR football teams. Instead, we're getting 4 to 90 times that percentage . (available #'s) That's INSANE. Mathematically the official infected #'s are becoming a statistical impossibility. (no politics, please. The Math.)
Even places that have adequate testing are asking people only to get tested if they think they have it... Exceptions abound, like football teams, aircraft carriers and the Senate, for instance.

Where universal testing has occurred, much higher than generally accepted rates of infection are present. One of my friends is an infectious disease attending physician (I know him because some of his training was local in Syracuse) essentially running a Covid unit in a hard hit population center... He seems to be using Facebook as a stress release posting all kinds of data that do nothing but stress me out. It's as bad or worse than even the hysterical mainstream media have been saying.

Anyway, every single player was exposed, and half tested positive in two weeks or less. Insane numbers. Stay safe, wear your mask.
 

upperdeck

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
16,427
Like
12,715
colleges plan to test when kids come back, just like they are with the athletes its the only way it works for them. need faster cheaper tests to make it all work.. someone will figure it out soon.
 

dan7800

2019-20 Iggy Winner Minutes Per Game
Joined
Sep 24, 2014
Messages
1,857
Like
2,552
colleges plan to test when kids come back
Might be true at some schools, but at mine I am unaware of such plans. The issues are:

A) High cost of testing everyone
B) Inaccuracy of tests (FP/FN)
C) Lack of available testing kits

As of now, the plan for my school (which is financially better off than 95%+ of other institutions) is to test symptomatic students only.

Things like wastewater testing in both the dorms and surrounding communities may be a more viable option.
 
Last edited:

upperdeck

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
16,427
Like
12,715
There are tests that are in the $5-10 range that hopefully reach the public soon.. and testing is really not that expensive if the they do the group testing like SU is planning
 

Online statistics

Members online
260
Guests online
509
Total visitors
769

Top Bottom