And everybody wondered what JB meant

[Madbiker]

How many people on this board work for free? I'll hang up and listen

When actors audition for a part, isn't that working for free? These kids are auditioning for a part in the NBA. And college is the place to develop, perfect, and demonstrate their skill.

 

[Brooky03]

How many people on this board work for free? I'll hang up and listen

Give me the choice between working for minimum wage right now vs. waiting a year and getting 4x the pay and I'll take the risk of waiting a year every single time.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Any one on the board that says in anyway they would turn any of the above down is smoking crack.

I think the discomfort I have with it is that he is leaving when his value is at its lowest and he will have no chance to improve his stock by wowing teams at his workouts. He can't work out. So there is a very good chance is leaving an awful lot of money on the table with the move. Of course, as a Syracuse fan I am disappointed he won't be playing for us, but it's more than that. Yes, if he is drafted he will have a big salary, but for a kid with his type of potential that type of money was always going to be there. To make an analogy to us normal people, it is like being in college but leaving school before getting your degree to jump on a job offer you got that will pay $15 an hour and have a limited career path when you likely could have expected to make $35 and hour with upward mobility. As a guy living on Ramen Noodles, the $15 an hour is a life saver, but it is still a poor decision not to stick it out for the $35/hour career. (especially so if you are on a full ride at college, thus not incurring debt)

 

[ToTheHole]

Interesting data, and I know you understand how the draft works, so this isn't directed at you so much as a general cautionary obsevation. Each draft slot has a designated salary range associated with it. A guy like Nick Johnson, who is a 6-2 tweener guard, had no chance of being drafted higher than he was--so leaving was smart.

Grant arguably could have gone higher had he come back and been the featured cog [admittedly, no guarantees]. Which means that the salary he got might have actually been significantly lower than what he would have gotten if he'd been drafted in the middle of the first round. In one year, he could then have made as much as he will make in two years of a 2nd round salary--and be better positioned in terms of those third year earnings.

So yes, anyone on the board who suggests that they would turn down $800K are probably not being honest. But there is an opportunity cost to leaving early if you slip into the second round. A rather significant one, if you are sacrificing eventual first round money [especially potential lottery - mid round money].

Which is exactly the situation that McCullough his facing. There are no guarantees--that's a given. And everybody knows that sites like NBAdraft.net are awful. But let's just use that as a starting baseline. They have him as the #5 pick in the 2016 draft. Who knows how accurate that would be. Hell, knock him down 10 spots, and then take a look at what THOSE salaries look like compared to the ones you present above.

Grant couldn't have been luckier. He made a poor business decision, disastrously tumbled into the second round, and then managed to land on his feet in an advantageous situation--on the worst team in the league, on a lousy roster that he could make, on a team looking to amass young / cheap assets for future trades, on a roster where he could actually get PT. If he'd been drafted by half the other teams in the league, he wouldn't have gotten out of summer league, let alone making the team at all; he'd be in the D-league making $25000 desperately hoping for a 10 day contract opportunity to hopefully prove himself. Instead, he got a TWO YEAR GUARANTEED CONTRACT as a SECOND ROUND PICK and made the Sixers roster. Very atypical. Practically unheard of.

I'm very happy for Grant, but let's not highlight that as an example of how the draft works favorably. He couldn't have gotten more lucky in terms of the team / situation--he stepped in a pile of sh/t and came up smelling like a rose.

McCullough might get drafted in the second round. Then again, he might not. I've heard that NBA GMs weren't enthusiastic about him potentially coming out, and he did anyway. So... unless he gets drafted in the first round [unlikely], or gets drafted by a team that is willing to stash him and allow him to make the roster [unlikely to a degree], he might end up being the anti-Grant circumstantially and find his NBA career over before it even begins.

You're a respected poster and I'm not necessarily disagreeing(or agreeing) with you or even directing this post at you, but there has been a lot of selfish emotion on this board directed at the young man. Maybe he made a mistake in terms of money, time will tell. I'm less upset about this than I've been in the past about others jumping ship. If I knew the decision was made due to improper motivation from someone else, I'd likely be upset with them, but I don't know that and am not going to waste emotional energy on it. I'm certainly not going to be bitter at Chris.

In a way, Chris is an explorer, almost a pioneer. That used to be looked at as a good thing in this country. I'm not saying college basketball, the NBA, and parts of our values system in general aren't broken. It's not Chris' fault that the NBA drafts on potential and might see more in him than someone with Tyler Ennis' body. It's not his fault that society values entertainment more than education. The only truth about the financial outcome of his decision at the moment is that we don't know what is going to happen. I suppose we could have one of those contest threads that give out awards for whomever guesses the closest, and actually turn the emotions here into fun. I'm being serious(like my avatar), I think. It might be a good learning tool. Are mortals(non-mods) allowed to create contests on here, or do they have to be sanctioned?

Back on topic, I cant be certain what JB knew or didn't know, or what inklings/intentions he may have had. He's no Sun Tzu, but maybe he's read his work. I stand by my statement in the other thread that much of this is speculation, at least for now. I understand that after the NCAA sanctions and a dismal season that many of us are looking for some place to direct our angst, and apparently everyone is fair game.

 

[teamco]

Nick Johnson, Pick 42 Houston Rockets

2014-15

$507,336
2015-16

$845,059
2016-17

$980,431
2017-18

$1,251,245

Johnson and Jefferson are not necessarily the correct comparisons. Looking at them reflects survivor bias, i.e. making a comparison to those who DID make the league. The correct comparison is to the entire universe of players who came out early. Let's look at the 2013 NBA draft, just because that happens to be the most recent one I could easily find statistics for- I think it is typical for the purposes of this discussion.

Of 47 players who left school with eligibility remaining to put their name into the NBA Draft, 20 failed to make an NBA roster in their first seasons as professionals. Simply getting drafted was not necessarily enough either, as 11 of the 30 second round picks did not make an NBA roster as of the start of that season.

Some of those who failed to make the cut are former all-americans who had to head overseas or to the D-League to try and land a contract. Deshaun Thomas, and Lorenzo Brown were both drafted and cut, as was Alex Oriakhi. Myck Kabongo, B.J. Young, C.J. Leslie, Adonis Thomas and Vander Blue went undrafted and couldn’t play their way onto a roster.

Then there were kids like C.J. Aiken or DeWayne Dedmon or Nurideen Lindsay, talented kids that just had no shot of getting drafted.

Perhaps the biggest head scratcher from the 2013 draft was Grant Jerrett. A former five-star recruit, Jerrett spent one relatively unproductive season at Arizona, but after seeing head coach Sean Miller recruit over him and bring in Aaron Gordon, Jerrett went pro. The 6-foot-9 shooter was picked 40th but ended up getting cut and heading to the D-League.

So, good luck to CMac. I just think he could have polished his earnings prospects greatly by spending at least another year at Syracuse working on his game and body and coming out with greater demand than he currently enjoys. In that sense I think of him as the polar opposite of Tyler Ennis. Ennis rode his better than anticipated single season at Syracuse, and resulting stronger than expected interest in him, into a first round selection in the draft. Ennis signed a 2 year $3,253,080 guaranteed contract with the Phoenix Suns. CMac? Seems on a not very well thought out bums rush to get to a pay day. I think coming out after the year he had is signing up for a boatload more financial uncertainty than could otherwise have been the case if he stayed and established some solid bona fides. But that is just my opinion- not as a Syracuse fan, which I am, but from a dollars and cents (or sense) business perspective.

 

[RF2044]

You're a respected poster and I'm not necessarily disagreeing(or agreeing) with you or even directing this post at you, but there has been a lot of selfish emotion on this board directed at the young man. Maybe he made a mistake in terms of money, time will tell. I'm less upset about this than I've been in the past about others jumping ship. If I knew the decision was made due to improper motivation from someone else, I'd likely be upset with them, but I don't know that and am not going to waste emotional energy on it. I'm certainly not going to be bitter at Chris.

In a way, Chris is an explorer, almost a pioneer. That used to be looked at as a good thing in this country. I'm not saying college basketball, the NBA, and parts of our values system in general aren't broken. It's not Chris' fault that the NBA drafts on potential and might see more in him than someone with Tyler Ennis' body. It's not his fault that society values entertainment more than education. The only truth about the financial outcome of his decision at the moment is that we don't know what is going to happen. I suppose we could have one of those contest threads that give out awards for whomever guesses the closest, and actually turn the emotions here into fun. I'm being serious(like my avatar), I think. It might be a good learning tool. Are mortals(non-mods) allowed to create contests on here, or do they have to be sanctioned?

Back on topic, I cant be certain what JB knew or didn't know, or what inklings/intentions he may have had. He's no Sun Tzu, but maybe he's read his work. I stand by my statement in the other thread that much of this is speculation, at least for now. I understand that after the NCAA sanctions and a dismal season that many of us are looking for some place to direct our angst, and apparently everyone is fair game.

I agree that there is a lot of negative sentiment being heaped his way. And IMO, that is wrong. I'm certainly going to "root" for him to succeed--but I also qualify that by admitting that I don't feel much of a connection to him as a former player in our program. That isn't CMac's fault; he got injured in the preseason portion of the schedule, and didn't have much time to leave an impression. I think that factors into a lot of people dismissing him or expressing disappointment with him now that he's going pro.

Second, I think you are right that some of this is speculation, but the data is hard data. We know what someone will make if they get drafted in X spot instead of Y spot. We might not know what the final outcome will be, but I don't think its going out on a limb to suggest that CMac didn't make the financially optimal decision. Pointing that out isn't "bashing" the kid or being negative about him. Nothing would please me more than to see him get drafted in the top 10. Circumstantially, I don't even envision him getting drafted in the first round, and I think there's a chance he won't be drafted at all. Again, that isn't bashing. If he doesn't get drafted, then the odds are stacked against him playing in the NBA. Doesn't mean it can't happen. Doesn't mean it won't. Just that he's placed himself in a precarious position.

 

[SBU72]

And the set of numbers that may be the most important: GPA + "and the baby makes 3"

 

[HoustonCuse]

And the set of numbers that may be the most important: GPA + "and the baby makes 3"

I agree with you. It just makes too little sense. I have to think he's ineligible and the university can take no chances to help a student athlete in terms of academics anymore. This will probably hurt us in APR because one would assume (if GPA is a factor) that he will not be leaving in good standing.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

When actors audition for a part, isn't that working for free? These kids are auditioning for a part in the NBA. And college is the place to develop, perfect, and demonstrate their skill.

Umm no.

 

[MSOrange]

I agree with you. It just makes too little sense. I have to think he's ineligible and the university can take no chances to help a student athlete in terms of academics anymore. This will probably hurt us in APR because one would assume (if GPA is a factor) that he will not be leaving in good standing.

Not according to this article. Hopefully it is the case and remains the case.

http://www.syracuse.com/orangebaske...leave_syracuse_in_good_academic_standing.html

 

[HeaterCuse22]

That's a two year contract and only the first year is guaranteed. I just think these are a bit more complex than just throwing the numbers up.

Just putting up the fact that guys make better than ok money all the way down to pick 60.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

Give me the choice between working for minimum wage right now vs. waiting a year and getting 4x the pay and I'll take the risk of waiting a year every single time.

I would say bs plus he is not being offered the potential of Min Wage. He can get drafted and make high 6 figures. Or go undrafted and go overseas and make low six figures. You example is not reality.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

I think the discomfort I have with it is that he is leaving when his value is at its lowest and he will have no chance to improve his stock by wowing teams at his workouts. He can't work out. So there is a very good chance is leaving an awful lot of money on the table with the move. Of course, as a Syracuse fan I am disappointed he won't be playing for us, but it's more than that. Yes, if he is drafted he will have a big salary, but for a kid with his type of potential that type of money was always going to be there. To make an analogy to us normal people, it is like being in college but leaving school before getting your degree to jump on a job offer you got that will pay $15 an hour and have a limited career path when you likely could have expected to make $35 and hour with upward mobility. As a guy living on Ramen Noodles, the $15 an hour is a life saver, but it is still a poor decision not to stick it out for the $35/hour career. (especially so if you are on a full ride at college, thus not incurring debt)

Not if you are in school but need the money to support a family (kid on the way). a fiancé. and likely a mother. I get what you are saying but remember the college kid quiting for 15 an hour is not a kid quitting for hundreds of thousands.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

I agree with you. It just makes too little sense. I have to think he's ineligible and the university can take no chances to help a student athlete in terms of academics anymore. This will probably hurt us in APR because one would assume (if GPA is a factor) that he will not be leaving in good standing.

He is fine academically per Donna Ditota

 

[Brooky03]

I would say bs plus he is not being offered the potential of Min Wage. He can get drafted and make high 6 figures. Or go undrafted and go overseas and make low six figures. You example is not reality.

Those numbers are fine when you don't consider the potential (likely) money he could make. Opportunity cost is a real thing, too.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

Those numbers are fine when you don't consider the potential (likely) money he could make. Opportunity cost is a real thing, too.

How can you say likely. He has a previously injured knee, he is also more likely to re-injure that. But I get what you are saying. I guess I am not saying he couldn't make more if he waited maybe, Im just saying lots of bad can happen while waiting also. We will call that Loss Opportunity.

 

[RoatanCuse]

I'm with you, Teamco. Just couldn't express it so well. As I posted last week, my opinion of him from day one was a "weak sister" type of person/ teammate. This decision just adds fuel to my fire. my school. my teammates. two more years work to improve my draft position. my coach. helping my TEAM make the Final Four. Reminds me of Mc Fu---it. All about attitude and character. Me first generation, for sure...with instant gratification coupled with No Clue. Disastrous.

 

[Guinness]

nostrildamus.

Dude. That should be your screen name. That is awesome.