People forget, but Real Madrid didn't get past the Round of 16 for many years before Mourinho took over back in 2011, when they reeled off 3 straight semifinal appearances, but couldn't get over the hump. Once Ancelotti took over, he delivered the 10th, and now they are looking for their 4th in 5 years.
I'm sick of the preferential treatment that the Spanish super teams get, but I think Barcelona is the "Duke" of European soccer - they get the most calls by a wide margin. RM and Ronaldo get more than their fair share, too, but I think the luster is off "BBC" - two of whom might not even play.
I think the key is whether Mo Salah (former Chelsea boy) consistently gets behind Marcelo, and finds himself in one-on-one's with Sergio Ramos on the counter-attack. Ramos has had so many red cards over the years.
But on the other end, Ramos is an amazing offensive threat on set pieces, and Liverpool is a bit weak in that area, although big Virgil Van Dijk has helped a lot in that regard. But Ramos is almost more of a big game presence than Ronaldo, who I don't think has hit a free kick in a couple years now. Madrid has so much class in their midfield, though. That's where this game will be won - in midfield, and on the counter.
I'm pulling hard for the Liverpool upset. I will not be shocked. I think they are going to really give Madrid a great game. I would be a lot more worried about the referees if this was a home-and-home tie in the semifinals. It will be hard for RM to get too much of an advantage with the refs in Russia. There won't be the same crowd pressure.