argument for start chucking like ovcina and deyawn williams

[Millhouse]

we are 4th in defensive SRS. Duke is 3rd in offensive SRS.

Duke is 34th in defensive SRS, we are gulp 221st

Michigan State was 23rd in offensive SRS.

Our great defense can beat a very good offense like MSU's but Duke's offense is great.

I was thrilled that they stopped shooting 3s and just tried to get to the line because I had confidence that the defense could stifle MSU

Duke, I don't have the same confidence. Their offense is great and they will score. Boeheim alluded to this in the postgame but not by name.

I don't think they should try to keep it close and win at the line. I think we should be more desperate and start chucking even though the most likely outcome is a 20 point loss. We're not trying to go for the optimal average margin of loss over a bunch of games against duke. Go high variance. Get lucky against duke and then go back to the slugfest.

Give Dolezaj the green light.

 

[721Comstock]

And that’s why JB is the coach.

 

[Cusefan0307]

We need to score 65. This game will be in the 60's. If they played man like they have in the past I would be more confident we could get to the basket, because they struggled defending penetration. Going to need to hit some 3's.

 

[Arangeman]

What's a SRS?

 

[Millhouse]

And that’s why JB is the coach.

do you think it's a bad idea to expect that duke will score much more than our other opponents?

or do you think that it's a bad idea to shoot more threes despite expecting duke to score more than than our other opponents?

i'm glad JB is the coach, I just want to know where I'm wrong.

 

[Millhouse]

What's a SRS?

it's just a points per game measure weighted by the strength of schedule

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I can tell you're out of practice, that's way too wordy of a post for you.

I was expecting you to just put a "Shoot the J" meme in and call it good.

 

[Eric15]

What's a SRS?

According to Urbandictionary...

 

[Millhouse]

We need to score 65. This game will be in the 60's. If they played man like they have in the past I would be more confident we could get to the basket, because they struggled defending penetration. Going to need to hit some 3's.

we held them to 60 already but they scored 74+ 31 times already

i think 2-18 from three for duke is quite an anomaly even though i know that our defense had a lot to do with it

 

[Millhouse]

duke shoots 38% from three fwiw

of course MSU shot 40%!

do we hope that we make 3s or do we hope that duke misses them? neither is likely

 

[Cheriehoop]

Pray that drives get fouls called? Our best offensive stat seems to be shooting free throws.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

According to Urbandictionary...

View attachment 125004

Have you been sitting on this one? There's just no way you found something that perfect by chance.

 

[Cusefan0307]

The possessions per game they play has decreased since they went to the zone full time. They were playing 75-85 possessions per game at one point. Now it's 60-70. That alone will decrease their scoring. VPI held them to 63 and won. If they can hold Duke to 63 we can do the same. They aren't nearly as good defensively as we are.

JB needs to make decision on whether he wants Allen or Trent to make 3's or have Carter/Bagley make 2's. I'm not sure what decision is right.

I think the right decision is to get out on Allen and let them have 2's.

 

[SoBeCuse]

It’s a tough predicament. Obviously this team needs to slow it down and limit possessions BECAUSE they are so thin and so bad offensively. Also to keep Duke moving slow and not to get them into transition.

But, I don’t like this holding the ball and constantly getting the shot clock down to single digits before an actual legit move or attack happens. It is literally just standing around otherwise with or without the high ball screen. The idea to just scrap ball movement and be okay with this is sort of nuts and mind boggling. But survive and advance, lol. Duke is going to score easier than MSU even with the limited possessions and they will probably kill us on the glass for second chance points. I agree with the OP. Fire away and release the hounds!

 

[NineOneSeven]

One thing is guaranteed... 44 points won't cut it.

Unfortunately, their defense is going to give us problems. I hope Tyus and frank have the stars align and they both go off from deep.

 

[Col. Bleep]

In defense of Elvir Ovcina...he was miscast.
Should have played the 2.
We could use him for a few minutes against Duke.

 

[texascpa]

do you think it's a bad idea to expect that duke will score much more than our other opponents?

or do you think that it's a bad idea to shoot more threes despite expecting duke to score more than than our other opponents?

i'm glad JB is the coach, I just want to know where I'm wrong.

With the evidence that we have - the last three games, our game at Duke, I think it's a bad idea that Duke will score much more than our other opponents.

 

[OttoMets]

we are 4th in defensive SRS. Duke is 3rd in offensive SRS.

Duke is 34th in defensive SRS, we are gulp 221st

Michigan State was 23rd in offensive SRS.

Our great defense can beat a very good offense like MSU's but Duke's offense is great.

I was thrilled that they stopped shooting 3s and just tried to get to the line because I had confidence that the defense could stifle MSU

Duke, I don't have the same confidence. Their offense is great and they will score. Boeheim alluded to this in the postgame but not by name.

I don't think they should try to keep it close and win at the line. I think we should be more desperate and start chucking even though the most likely outcome is a 20 point loss. We're not trying to go for the optimal average margin of loss over a bunch of games against duke. Go high variance. Get lucky against duke and then go back to the slugfest.

Give Dolezaj the green light.

If Duke zones us you might get your wish.

Because based on what we've seen in the last few seasons, SU's recipe for beating a zone is exactly what we want teams to do against our own defense: chuck a bunch of threes.

But maybe we'll be surprised and find Dolezaj carving them up from the high post.

 

[Eric15]

In defense of Elvir Ovcina...he was miscast.
Should have played the 2.
We could use him for a few minutes against Duke.

Ovcina should have been playing at a mid-major (in my opinion). He was a career 24% three point shooter (19% as a senior).

 

[RF2044]

At this stage of the season, it is never a good idea to get too cute and get away from what got you there.

I have no problem with Dolezaj taking a wide open shot, because he has earned that right in recent games.

I think a more important factor for BOTH Dolezaj and Brissett is that those guys looked like deer in the headlights at Cameron. I don't expect that to be the case this time around. Duke is a terrific team -- we've got an uphill battle no matter what.

 

[Waltdods]

we are 4th in defensive SRS. Duke is 3rd in offensive SRS.

Duke is 34th in defensive SRS, we are gulp 221st

Michigan State was 23rd in offensive SRS.

Our great defense can beat a very good offense like MSU's but Duke's offense is great.

I was thrilled that they stopped shooting 3s and just tried to get to the line because I had confidence that the defense could stifle MSU

Duke, I don't have the same confidence. Their offense is great and they will score. Boeheim alluded to this in the postgame but not by name.

I don't think they should try to keep it close and win at the line. I think we should be more desperate and start chucking even though the most likely outcome is a 20 point loss. We're not trying to go for the optimal average margin of loss over a bunch of games against duke. Go high variance. Get lucky against duke and then go back to the slugfest.

Give Dolezaj the green light.

I've got no problem with upping the three point count. (Truthfully, I think it's a near certainty that that's the approach SU will take to attacking the zone regardless, because it always seems to be.) But I do think you want to stick to milking the clock. Increase variance within possessions fine, but do not get into a spot where you're throwing up a 22 footer with 22 seconds on the shot clock.

 

[Waltdods]

Ovcina should have been playing at a mid-major (in my opinion). He was a career 24% three point shooter (19% as a senior).

Yes, holy crap let's not start any Elvir Ovcina revisionism

 

[Arangeman]

Duke's only weakness seems to be lack of depth. Game will be called tight. Rather than chuck threes I'd love us to attack their bigs and get them in foul trouble. Serves a dual purpose.

Easier said than done, but Bagley is suspect on D. Maybe get him off his feet with pump fakes, etc. We are gonna drive in there wildly, hopefully we get some calls. Oshae and Battle led the ACC in free throws attempted and we are an excellent FT shooting team.

Play to our strength and get them off the floor. I know zone makes it harder.

 

[Millhouse]

It’s a tough predicament. Obviously this team needs to slow it down and limit possessions BECAUSE they are so thin and so bad offensively. Also to keep Duke moving slow and not to get them into transition.

But, I don’t like this holding the ball and constantly getting the shot clock down to single digits before an actual legit move or attack happens. It is literally just standing around otherwise with or without the high ball screen. The idea to just scrap ball movement and be okay with this is sort of nuts and mind boggling. But survive and advance, lol. Duke is going to score easier than MSU even with the limited possessions and they will probably kill us on the glass for second chance points. I agree with the OP. Fire away and release the hounds!

holding on to the ball and chucking a bad shot isn't a bad idea for an underdog. if they're better than us, don't amplify it by having more possessions

we never get a good shot so you might as well kill time if it's going to be a bad shot anyway

 

[Millhouse]

Ovcina should have been playing at a mid-major (in my opinion). He was a career 24% three point shooter (19% as a senior).

it's mind boggling that he got the green light that he did