argument for start chucking like ovcina and deyawn williams

[Millhouse]

With the evidence that we have - the last three games, our game at Duke, I think it's a bad idea that Duke will score much more than our other opponents.

duke still scored 60 while going to 2-18 from three. a more normal shooting performance gets them to 75.

 

[Millhouse]

I've got no problem with upping the three point count. (Truthfully, I think it's a near certainty that that's the approach SU will take to attacking the zone regardless, because it always seems to be.) But I do think you want to stick to milking the clock. Increase variance within possessions fine, but do not get into a spot where you're throwing up a 22 footer with 22 seconds on the shot clock.

agree completely

 

[billsin01]

we are 4th in defensive SRS. Duke is 3rd in offensive SRS.

Duke is 34th in defensive SRS, we are gulp 221st

Michigan State was 23rd in offensive SRS.

Our great defense can beat a very good offense like MSU's but Duke's offense is great.

I was thrilled that they stopped shooting 3s and just tried to get to the line because I had confidence that the defense could stifle MSU

Duke, I don't have the same confidence. Their offense is great and they will score. Boeheim alluded to this in the postgame but not by name.

I don't think they should try to keep it close and win at the line. I think we should be more desperate and start chucking even though the most likely outcome is a 20 point loss. We're not trying to go for the optimal average margin of loss over a bunch of games against duke. Go high variance. Get lucky against duke and then go back to the slugfest.

Give Dolezaj the green light.

You talking tempo or shot selection? Or both? It's an interesting theory regardless. I generally think we've looked better, even missing shots, when we've played a bit quicker offensively. I'm with everyone else in that leaving yourself about 10 seconds at the end of the clock to find a good look is a tough way to sustain any offense. But, having said that, we're in the sweet 16 by basically saying we're going to try and limit any runouts by trying to pound the ball inside somewhere with <10 seconds on the clock. I would imagine more threes and more possessions would lead to more Duke runouts. At least that's the fear.

My thought is that I would be focusing all week on getting Marek touches in the middle of the zone and work on getting shooters to the wings and in the corner and getting marek comfortable with taking that 12-15-footer if at all possible. I'd also be trying to get Brissett into that short corner. We never seem to do that. We'll see.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Marek was really great at the high post against zones earlier in the season. With his recent ability to shoot a little more, he is the best weapon against a zone. I did not see the earlier Duke game, it sounds like he didn't do well. He will be a key factor, I think.

 

[SoBeCuse]

holding on to the ball and chucking a bad shot isn't a bad idea for an underdog. if they're better than us, don't amplify it by having more possessions

we never get a good shot so you might as well kill time if it's going to be a bad shot anyway

Yeah, every shot is a bad or contested shot unless Marek is wide open. Never seen anything like it. Who knows what is best.

 

[Ragman2000]

You talking tempo or shot selection? Or both? It's an interesting theory regardless. I generally think we've looked better, even missing shots, when we've played a bit quicker offensively. I'm with everyone else in that leaving yourself about 10 seconds at the end of the clock to find a good look is a tough way to sustain any offense. But, having said that, we're in the sweet 16 by basically saying we're going to try and limit any runouts by trying to pound the ball inside somewhere with <10 seconds on the clock. I would imagine more threes and more possessions would lead to more Duke runouts. At least that's the fear.

My thought is that I would be focusing all week on getting Marek touches in the middle of the zone and work on getting shooters to the wings and in the corner and getting marek comfortable with taking that 12-15-footer if at all possible. I'd also be trying to get Brissett into that short corner. We never seem to do that. We'll see.

This is what will win us the game. It all honestly hinges on Marek making good decisions and hitting open looks as he has, and Frank/Tyus/Oshae on fire from deep.

 

[Cusefan0307]

duke still scored 60 while going to 2-18 from three. a more normal shooting performance gets them to 75.

What's a "normal" shooting percentage against us though? We've had one game where we gave up greater than 49% shooting this year and that was NC State at home. 7 out of our last 10 opponents have shot 31% from 3 or worse.

It's very realistic we can keep them in the low 60's with both teams playing zone. The chances they shoot well against us aren't great.

 

[Millhouse]

What's a "normal" shooting percentage against us though? We've had one game where we gave up greater than 49% shooting this year and that was NC State at home. 7 out of our last 10 opponents have shot 31% from 3 or worse.

It's very realistic we can keep them in the low 60's with both teams playing zone. The chances they shoot well against us aren't great.

That is certainly possible. It's what makes it interesting to me - not an easy question

 

[SoBeCuse]

That is certainly possible. It's what makes it interesting to me - not an easy question

The one plus is by default (Since Duke plays zone) we will be forced to move the ball better as opposed to the standing around constant ISO VS man. Who knows what will go down near the end of the shot clock. I wouldn’t mind a little quicker pace but that’s preaching to the choir.

 

[SoBeCuse]

This is what will win us the game. It all honestly hinges on Marek making good decisions and hitting open looks as he has, and Frank/Tyus/Oshae on fire from deep.

We still need to move the ball quickly, make quick decisions, and reverse the ball to attack another side. Not sure if the players can and combined with scheme if it’s even in the cards. We had another game the other night with 3 assists! That’s crazy. We’re winning games but what we’re seeing is a really historic horrific offense.

We’re 165 in the country in Floor %. 229 in Offensive Efficiency. Combined with being 345 in tempo; it’s almost unbelievable.

 

[SUFan44]

I think slowing the game down is important, obviously, but a part of that is making sure we do not give them live ball turnovers.

If I remember correctly, the team couldn't pass the ball to one another with any sort of efficiency at Cameron.

Duke had 13 steals and forced 17 turnovers against us -- 12-4 edge in fast-break points (which is actually a really good percentage considering the 13 steals).

Need to limit our turnovers to ~10 and make sure Duke has no more than 5-6 steals. That, I think, should be controllable.

 

[bballbeadle]

duke shoots 38% from three fwiw

of course MSU shot 40%!

do we hope that we make 3s or do we hope that duke misses them? neither is likely

That we make 3’s. That and our defense may be the only way to win. Oh, yeah, and Chookie and Sidibe need to stop Bagley and not foul out. Our 3 main shooters need to have the night of their life. Might be nice if Dolezaj had the night of his life as well. And we need to make some 3’s. (Ulp!)

I’ve been reading a little of their board. They are VERY respectful of SU and Boeheim. Some are relieved to get us rather than MSU but they understand that no game will be a cakewalk. They like their chances. Can’t blame them.

Gotta make 3’s!

 

[billsin01]

We still need to move the ball quickly, make quick decisions, and reverse the ball to attack another side. Not sure if the players can and combined with scheme if it’s even in the cards. We had another game the other night with 3 assists! That’s crazy. We’re winning games but what we’re seeing is a really historic horrific offense.

We’re 165 in the country in Floor %. 229 in Offensive Efficiency. Combined with being 345 in tempo; it’s almost unbelievable.

It'll be really interesting to see how they attack it b/c the point is a good one. Get it to the foul line and attack from there sounds easy but it's harder than it looks and we have been so dependent on running everything through battle and howard, shifting gears may be difficult.

 

[NorSyr66]

The possessions per game they play has decreased since they went to the zone full time. They were playing 75-85 possessions per game at one point. Now it's 60-70. That alone will decrease their scoring. VPI held them to 63 and won. If they can hold Duke to 63 we can do the same. They aren't nearly as good defensively as we are.

JB needs to make decision on whether he wants Allen or Trent to make 3's or have Carter/Bagley make 2's. I'm not sure what decision is right.

I think the right decision is to get out on Allen and let them have 2's.

My concern with the 2's is getting our bigs in foul trouble.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I think slowing the game down is important, obviously, but a part of that is making sure we do not give them live ball turnovers.

If I remember correctly, the team couldn't pass the ball to one another with any sort of efficiency at Cameron.

Duke had 13 steals and forced 17 turnovers against us -- 12-4 edge in fast-break points (which is actually a really good percentage considering the 13 steals).

Need to limit our turnovers to ~10 and make sure Duke has no more than 5-6 steals. That, I think, should be controllable.

I am pretty confident we can hold them in the 60s but that means we need to get to the 60s too.

 

[SoBeCuse]

It'll be really interesting to see how they attack it b/c the point is a good one. Get it to the foul line and attack from there sounds easy but it's harder than it looks and we have been so dependent on running everything through battle and howard, shifting gears may be difficult.

Right. In a response to Millhouse I was thinking that by default since Duke plays zone the ball movement needs to/should get better...or not.

 

[Millhouse]

Right. In a response to Millhouse I was thinking that by default since Duke plays zone the ball movement needs to/should get better...or not.

i expect terrible ball movement and terrible shots. given that might as well shoot fewer by slowing down and take the terrible shot from 3 rather than 2. do we want to try to get by with free throws against Duke? i'm waiting for the NCAA to say "enough of this shart, we're not having SU knock duke out"

we shot 39% from inside the line the last 4 games.

it's tough. we're good from the FT line but terrible at 2p%. you have to try to take 2 pt shots to get to the line

our two games with the most 3s are kansas and duke. not sure how much was desperation and how much was by design

but we're 13-2 when we shot less than 18 threes. again, might be like winning football teams that run a lot - winning causes the rushes, not the other way around. it's not just cupcakes either

 

[FrancoPizza]

Best hope is that Katie gets the ball in the post and forces k out of the zone after scoring or assisting on 3 consecutive plays. Most coaches abandon their zone quickly if they sense it can be exploited.

 

[SoBeCuse]

i expect terrible ball movement and terrible shots. given that might as well shoot fewer by slowing down and take the terrible shot from 3 rather than 2. do we want to try to get by with free throws against Duke? i'm waiting for the NCAA to say "enough of this shart, we're not having SU knock duke out"

we shot 39% from inside the line the last 4 games.

it's tough. we're good from the FT line but terrible at 2p%. you have to try to take 2 pt shots to get to the line

our two games with the most 3s are kansas and duke. not sure how much was desperation and how much was by design

but we're 13-2 when we shot less than 18 threes. again, might be like winning football teams that run a lot - winning causes the rushes, not the other way around. it's not just cupcakes either

Ha. I was thinking that too last game. NCAA being like, “Alright enough of this stalling to then take bad shots. Let’s get ‘em out.”

 

[br801]

It seems like more chucking would result in more possessions, increased tempo and more unsettled situations, none of which would seem to be in the best interest of a team that grind outs wins with a short bench.

 

[Millhouse]

It seems like more chucking would result in more possessions, increased tempo and more unsettled situations, none of which would seem to be in the best interest of a team that grind outs wins with a short bench.

Stand around then chuck

 

[br801]

Stand around then chuck

They're already doing that a good deal of the time.

 

[Millhouse]

They're already doing that a good deal of the time.

for MSU they stood around and then ran into people. LOL. this all sounds so stupid but the real crazy talk would be imagining guys moving around and getting layups in the half court.

69 free throws for us in the tournament (nice), 43 for opponents

 

[br801]

for MSU they stood around and then ran into people. LOL. this all sounds so stupid but the real crazy talk would be imagining guys moving around and getting layups in the half court.

69 free throws for us in the tournament (nice), 43 for opponents

Call me crazy, but I think they will put up points this time. If Dolezaj can find the sweet spots and knock down a few shots early, I can envision the floor opening up for the big three, and if two of them have efficient scoring games, they can pull this off.

 

[SUFan44]

It seems like more chucking would result in more possessions, increased tempo and more unsettled situations, none of which would seem to be in the best interest of a team that grind outs wins with a short bench.

Chucking also results in more long rebounds & more runouts. Which is not a recipe for success.