SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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I’ll continue this season to make monthly reports on the top ten batters in each league in “bases produced” and “runs produced”.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.151. That’s better than Kris Bryant (.907) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.281). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,151 times. He didn’t do something 1.151 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs producted”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for last month. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
AFTER APRIL
American League
Bases Produced
Mike Trout, Angels 89 in 27 games (3.30) and 115 plate appearances (.774)
Francisco Lindor, Indians 73 in 24 games (3.04) and 109 plate appearances (.670)
Miguel Sano, Twins 72 in 23 games (3.13) and 97 plate appearances (.742)
Aaron Judge, Yankees 71 in 21 games (3.38) and 84 plate appearances (.845)
Nelson Cruz, Seattle 71 in 25 games (2.84) and 108 plate appearances (.657)
Khris Davis, Athletic 70 in 24 games (2.92) and 99 plate appearances (.707)
Jose Ramirez, Indians 66 in 24 games (2.75) and 103 plate appearances (.641)
Mitch Haniger, Mariners 63 in 21 games (3.00) and 95 plate appearances (.663)
Curtis Dickerson, Rays 63 in 24 games (2.63) and 96 plate appearances (.656)
Steven Souza, Rays 63 in 25 games (2.52) and 108 plate appearances (.583)
Runs Produced
Nelson Cruz, Seattle 44 in 25 games (1.76) and 108 plate appearances (.407)
Miguel Sano, Twins 35 in 23 games (1.52) and 97 plate appearances (.361)
Aaron Judge, Yankees 33 in 21 games (1.57) and 84 plate appearances (.393)
Mitch Haniger, Mariners 32 in 21 games (1.52) and 95 plate appearances (.337)
Avisall Garcia, White Sox 30 in 23 games (1.30) and 93 plate appearances (.323)
Francisco Lindor, Indians 30 in 24 games (1.25) and 109 plate appearances (.275)
Mike Trout, Angels 29 in 27 games (1.07) and 115 plate appearances (.252)
Robinson Cano, Mariners 29 in 26 games (1.12) and 114 plate appearances (.254)
Jose Ramirez, Indians 28 in 24 games (1.17) and 103 plate appearances (.272)
Carlos Santana, Indians 28 in 24 games (1.17) and 113 plate appearances (.248)
National League
Bases Produced
Bryce Harper, Nationals 93 in 25 games (3.72) and 114 plate appearances (.816)
Freddie Freeman, Braves 87 in 23 games (3.78) and 101 plate appearances (.861)
Eric Thames, Braves 86 in 24 games (3.58) and 103 plate appearances (.835)
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 77 in 27 games (2.85) and 117 plate appearances (.658)
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 72 in 26 games (2.77) and 118 plate appearances (.610)
Wil Myers, Padres 71 in 27 games (2.63) and 117 plate appearances (.607)
Kris Bryant, Cubs 70 in 24 games (2.92) and 115 plate appearances (.609)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 70 in 26 games (2.69) and 110 plate appearances (.636)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 68 in 24 games (2.83) and 111 plate appearances (.613)
AJ Pollock, D-Backs 68 in 25 games (2.72) and 112 plate appearances (.607)
Runs Produced
Bryce Harper, Nationals 49 in 25 games (1.96) and 114 plate appearances (.430)
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals 40 in 24 games (1.67) and 96 plate appearances (.417)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 38 in 24 games (1.58) and 111 plate appearances (.342)
Eric Thames, Brewers 36 in 24 games (1.50) and 103 plate appearances (.350)
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 36 in 27 games (1.33) and 117 plate appearances (.308)
Adam Eaton, Nationals 35 in 23 games (1.52) and 107 plate appearances (.327)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 35 in 24 games (1.46) and 106 plate appearances (.330)
Christian Yelich, Marlins 32 in 23 games (1.39) and 105 plate appearances (.305)
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 32 in 26 games (1.23) and 118 plate appearances (.271)
Mark Reynolds, Rockies 30 in 26 games (1.15) and 105 plate appearances (.286)
Comments:
The Golden Boys, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are off to good starts. But Harper got off to a good start last year, too: 77 bases in 23 games = 3.35 per game 96PA = .802 per plate appearance / 31 runs in 23 games = 1.35 per game 96PA = .323 per plate appearance and slumped after that. But he’s on a level up from that this year and may be having the type of year he had two years ago.
I continue to marvel at all the new talent coming into the game. I mostly watch Mets games so I’m more likely to recognize a name like Christian Yelich than Jake Lamb or Miguel Sano. Still there seems to be a lot of other names I’ve not heard of before this season: Francisco Lindor , Jose Ramirez, Curtis Dickerson, Mitch Haniger, Avisall Garcia, Carlos Santana, Eric Thames and Adam Eaton. And I’d only heard of Steven Souza because he was a former Syracuse Chief.
The first stat is something I invented in preference to “OPS” or “production”. I like the idea of combining the two basic percentages: on base percentage and slugging percentage, (both of which are better measures of a player’s offense than batting average), but I have a few problems with it. You are adding together two percentages with different divisors: total plate appearances and “official” at bats. You are counting hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the hitter is not actually trying to do: get hit by a pitch. And you are excluding something he is trying to do, something that turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples: steal a base. Also, you wind up with a stat that, while it serves as a ranking isn’t directly translatable into something you can understand. It looks like a percentage but it isn’t. Mike Trout as of May 1st has an OPS of 1.151. That’s better than Kris Bryant (.907) but not as good as Bryce Harper (1.281). But what does it mean? Trout didn’t do something 1,151 times. He didn’t do something 1.151 percent of the time. Finally, I like gross numbers more than percentages. Gross numbers are what actually happened. Percentages are a rate of production, which will produce higher gross numbers if they are better unless there are fewer games played or at bats. And, in that case you don’t know that the rate of production would have continued had there been more games and at bats. It’s only the bases and runs that were actually produced that show up on the scoreboard and determine the outcome of actual games.
My solution is to add the batting bases a hitter produced, (1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple and 4 for a home run), to the walks to the stolen bases and call that “bases produced”. It would be the leading contributory statistic to the production of runs. If you want to turn it into a percentage, you could divide it by total plate appearances. But I prefer an average per game statistic: the top players in the league tend to play whole games. You’ll find that great offensive player will produce around 3 bases per game. That’s easy to comprehend. And you can watch a game and just count the bases the players accumulate. If your favorite player is in the race for MVP and he walks twice, hits a double and steals a base, he’s increased his base production by 5 bases. What did the other guy do?
The obvious sister stat for bases production is “runs producted”, which has been around for decades: runs scored plus runs batted in minus home runs, (so you don’t count them twice: they are the same run, scored and driven in by the same guy). A top offensive player will produce about 1 run per game. 3 bases and 1 run per game, That’s easy to remember. If all nine guys in the line-up did that, you’d be pretty tough to beat.
Here are the tops tens in run and base production in the American and National leagues for last month. They are ranked in order of gross bases and runs produced with the per game average as the first tie-breaker and the per plate appearance percentage as the second tie-breaker. If still tied, they are listed alphabetically.
AFTER APRIL
American League
Bases Produced
Mike Trout, Angels 89 in 27 games (3.30) and 115 plate appearances (.774)
Francisco Lindor, Indians 73 in 24 games (3.04) and 109 plate appearances (.670)
Miguel Sano, Twins 72 in 23 games (3.13) and 97 plate appearances (.742)
Aaron Judge, Yankees 71 in 21 games (3.38) and 84 plate appearances (.845)
Nelson Cruz, Seattle 71 in 25 games (2.84) and 108 plate appearances (.657)
Khris Davis, Athletic 70 in 24 games (2.92) and 99 plate appearances (.707)
Jose Ramirez, Indians 66 in 24 games (2.75) and 103 plate appearances (.641)
Mitch Haniger, Mariners 63 in 21 games (3.00) and 95 plate appearances (.663)
Curtis Dickerson, Rays 63 in 24 games (2.63) and 96 plate appearances (.656)
Steven Souza, Rays 63 in 25 games (2.52) and 108 plate appearances (.583)
Runs Produced
Nelson Cruz, Seattle 44 in 25 games (1.76) and 108 plate appearances (.407)
Miguel Sano, Twins 35 in 23 games (1.52) and 97 plate appearances (.361)
Aaron Judge, Yankees 33 in 21 games (1.57) and 84 plate appearances (.393)
Mitch Haniger, Mariners 32 in 21 games (1.52) and 95 plate appearances (.337)
Avisall Garcia, White Sox 30 in 23 games (1.30) and 93 plate appearances (.323)
Francisco Lindor, Indians 30 in 24 games (1.25) and 109 plate appearances (.275)
Mike Trout, Angels 29 in 27 games (1.07) and 115 plate appearances (.252)
Robinson Cano, Mariners 29 in 26 games (1.12) and 114 plate appearances (.254)
Jose Ramirez, Indians 28 in 24 games (1.17) and 103 plate appearances (.272)
Carlos Santana, Indians 28 in 24 games (1.17) and 113 plate appearances (.248)
National League
Bases Produced
Bryce Harper, Nationals 93 in 25 games (3.72) and 114 plate appearances (.816)
Freddie Freeman, Braves 87 in 23 games (3.78) and 101 plate appearances (.861)
Eric Thames, Braves 86 in 24 games (3.58) and 103 plate appearances (.835)
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 77 in 27 games (2.85) and 117 plate appearances (.658)
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 72 in 26 games (2.77) and 118 plate appearances (.610)
Wil Myers, Padres 71 in 27 games (2.63) and 117 plate appearances (.607)
Kris Bryant, Cubs 70 in 24 games (2.92) and 115 plate appearances (.609)
Nolan Arenado, Rockies 70 in 26 games (2.69) and 110 plate appearances (.636)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 68 in 24 games (2.83) and 111 plate appearances (.613)
AJ Pollock, D-Backs 68 in 25 games (2.72) and 112 plate appearances (.607)
Runs Produced
Bryce Harper, Nationals 49 in 25 games (1.96) and 114 plate appearances (.430)
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals 40 in 24 games (1.67) and 96 plate appearances (.417)
Daniel Murphy, Nationals 38 in 24 games (1.58) and 111 plate appearances (.342)
Eric Thames, Brewers 36 in 24 games (1.50) and 103 plate appearances (.350)
Paul Goldschmidt, D-Backs 36 in 27 games (1.33) and 117 plate appearances (.308)
Adam Eaton, Nationals 35 in 23 games (1.52) and 107 plate appearances (.327)
Jake Lamb, D-Backs 35 in 24 games (1.46) and 106 plate appearances (.330)
Christian Yelich, Marlins 32 in 23 games (1.39) and 105 plate appearances (.305)
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies 32 in 26 games (1.23) and 118 plate appearances (.271)
Mark Reynolds, Rockies 30 in 26 games (1.15) and 105 plate appearances (.286)
Comments:
The Golden Boys, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are off to good starts. But Harper got off to a good start last year, too: 77 bases in 23 games = 3.35 per game 96PA = .802 per plate appearance / 31 runs in 23 games = 1.35 per game 96PA = .323 per plate appearance and slumped after that. But he’s on a level up from that this year and may be having the type of year he had two years ago.
I continue to marvel at all the new talent coming into the game. I mostly watch Mets games so I’m more likely to recognize a name like Christian Yelich than Jake Lamb or Miguel Sano. Still there seems to be a lot of other names I’ve not heard of before this season: Francisco Lindor , Jose Ramirez, Curtis Dickerson, Mitch Haniger, Avisall Garcia, Carlos Santana, Eric Thames and Adam Eaton. And I’d only heard of Steven Souza because he was a former Syracuse Chief.
