SWC75
Bored Historian
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Last year I introduced the concept of “bases produced” and wedded it to the old concept of “runs produced”. There’s a lot of debate about which baseball statistics are the best ones. My points in a somewhat lengthy introduction were that:
1)It’s sports, not a moon shot: let’s keep things simple. Stats should be easy to compute and what the resulting number represents should be clear. You should be able to see a play in a game and know the impact of that play on the stat, perhaps even compute it in your head.
2)I like the concept of “OBPS”: adding on base percentage to slugging percentage to wed the two most important stats and supplant the over-rated batting average, home runs and stolen bases in evaluating players. But I don’t like the stat itself. You adding together two percentages, each with a different divisor, (total plate appearances vs. official at bats). You are including hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the batter is not actually, (or normally), trying to do, being hit by a pitch, which is part of on base percentage. You are excluding stolen bases, which is something the player is trying to do once he gets on base. Finally you are producing a number that, while it can be used to rank players, doesn’t represent how often or how frequently he produced something.
3)Let’s simplify this by computing it this way: Add total bases, which is the hit total broken out to 1 base for a single, 2 for a double, three for a triple and four for a home run, the dividend in a player “slugging percentage”. Let’s add to that the major additional component in “on base percentage: the walks, and then the other thing a batter can do to advance himself when he gets on base: the stolen base. That’s “bases produced”. You could add in some other stuff: the number of bases he got by tagging up on outs, the number of bases he took on hits that were more than the batter took, (Enos Slaughter gets an extra base for scoring off Harry Walker’s double to win the 1946 series), even bases taken on the batter’s ground outs. You could add in the bases the bases other players get to take because of the batter’s hits. But those things aren’t kept track off so we will “keep it simple”: Total Bases + Walks + Steals = Base Production, (BP). Everything is counted once and everything is something the batter is actually trying to do to obtain bases for himself and his team.
4)The “sister stat” to BP would be “Runs Produced”, (RP), which has been around for years: Runs scored + runs driven in – home runs so you don’t count them twice. Pujols, after hitting the 3 run homer, (with the help of my imagination), went from 54 runs produced (30 scored + 32 driven in – 8 homers) to 57, (31 + 35 -9).
5)There’s a lot to be said for gross totals: you don’t know if a rate of production would have been kept up and the impact of a player playing in a game is always going to be greater than the impact of a player who doesn’t. If you must have a percentage or an average the instinct would be to divide BP and RP by plate appearances. Or you could divide it by games played since, if you are evaluating top players, they will likely have played the entirety of games. A top offensive player will produce about 3 bases and 1 run per game. If everybody in the batting order did that, his team would produce 27 bases and 9 runs.
I think BP and RP are a much easier to compute and comprehend way of evaluating player’s offensive skills than the “super numbers” the sabermaticians have come up in recent years, like Total Average, (an oxymoron), Offensive Winning Percentage, Runs Created and Win Shares, which Bill James used 86 pages to explain in a book. The numbers would be more relevant than batting average, homers and steals, yet nearly as easy to compute and comprehend. Maybe BP and RP would be the stats everybody would know about their favorite player or the guy they think should be MVP, (although that call should be based on more than just a stat).
Anyway, we are embarked on a new season and I am again going to post the monthly top ten rankings in BP and RP, along with the per- game averages, although the ranking will be based on the total.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Bases Produced
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 265 in 80 games (3.31)
Chris Davis, Orioles 252 in 82 games (3.07)
Mike Trout Angels 242 in 81 games (2.99)
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 209 in 81 games (2.58)
Evan Longoria, Ryas 201 in 80 games (2.51)
Dustin Pedroia Red Sox 198 in 83 games (2.39)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox 197 in 77 games (2.56)
Manny Machado, Orioles 196 in 83 games (2.36)
Robinson Cano, Yankees 195 in 81 games (2.41)
Josh Donaldson Athletics 195 in 81 games (2.41)
Runs Produced
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 121 in 80 games (1.51)
Chris Davis, Orioles 109 in 82 games (1.33)
Adam Jones, Orioles 98 in 83 games (1.18)
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 97 in 81 games (1.20)
Mike Trout Angels 96 in 81 games (1.19)
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 95 in 83 games (1.14)
Prince Fielder. Tigers 89 in 80 games (1.11)
Manny Machado, Orioles 89 in 83 games (1.07)
Daniel Nava, Red Sox 84 in 75 games (1.12)
Josh Donaldson, Athletics 84 in 81 games (1.04)
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Bases Produced
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 242 in 81 games (2.99)
Joey Votto, Reds 222 in 82 games (2.71)
Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs 215 in 80 games (2.69)
David Wright, Mets 202 in 77 games (2.62)
Shin-Soo Choo, Reds 200 in 79 games (2.53)
Jean Segura, Brewers 200 in 79 games (2.53)
Jay Bruce, Reds 198 in 81 games (2.44)
Domonic Brown, Phillies 194 in 82 games (2.37)
Hunter Pence, Giants 192 in 81 games (2.37)
Carlos Gomez, Brewers 190 in 75 games (2.53)
Runs produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs 101 in 80 games (1.26)
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 101 in 81 games (1.25)
Allen Craig, Cardinals 98 in 78 games (1.26)
Brandon Phillips, Reds 91 in 74 games (1.23)
Matt Holliday, Cardinals 89 in 76 games (1.17)
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals 85 in 77 games (1.10)
Freddie Freeman, Braves 84 in 69 games (1.22)
Andrew McCutcheon 83 in 78 games (1.06)
Jay Bruce, Reds 82 in 81 games (1.01)
Joey Votto, Reds 80 in 82 games (0.98)
1)It’s sports, not a moon shot: let’s keep things simple. Stats should be easy to compute and what the resulting number represents should be clear. You should be able to see a play in a game and know the impact of that play on the stat, perhaps even compute it in your head.
2)I like the concept of “OBPS”: adding on base percentage to slugging percentage to wed the two most important stats and supplant the over-rated batting average, home runs and stolen bases in evaluating players. But I don’t like the stat itself. You adding together two percentages, each with a different divisor, (total plate appearances vs. official at bats). You are including hits on both sides of the equation and thus counting them twice. You are including something the batter is not actually, (or normally), trying to do, being hit by a pitch, which is part of on base percentage. You are excluding stolen bases, which is something the player is trying to do once he gets on base. Finally you are producing a number that, while it can be used to rank players, doesn’t represent how often or how frequently he produced something.
3)Let’s simplify this by computing it this way: Add total bases, which is the hit total broken out to 1 base for a single, 2 for a double, three for a triple and four for a home run, the dividend in a player “slugging percentage”. Let’s add to that the major additional component in “on base percentage: the walks, and then the other thing a batter can do to advance himself when he gets on base: the stolen base. That’s “bases produced”. You could add in some other stuff: the number of bases he got by tagging up on outs, the number of bases he took on hits that were more than the batter took, (Enos Slaughter gets an extra base for scoring off Harry Walker’s double to win the 1946 series), even bases taken on the batter’s ground outs. You could add in the bases the bases other players get to take because of the batter’s hits. But those things aren’t kept track off so we will “keep it simple”: Total Bases + Walks + Steals = Base Production, (BP). Everything is counted once and everything is something the batter is actually trying to do to obtain bases for himself and his team.
4)The “sister stat” to BP would be “Runs Produced”, (RP), which has been around for years: Runs scored + runs driven in – home runs so you don’t count them twice. Pujols, after hitting the 3 run homer, (with the help of my imagination), went from 54 runs produced (30 scored + 32 driven in – 8 homers) to 57, (31 + 35 -9).
5)There’s a lot to be said for gross totals: you don’t know if a rate of production would have been kept up and the impact of a player playing in a game is always going to be greater than the impact of a player who doesn’t. If you must have a percentage or an average the instinct would be to divide BP and RP by plate appearances. Or you could divide it by games played since, if you are evaluating top players, they will likely have played the entirety of games. A top offensive player will produce about 3 bases and 1 run per game. If everybody in the batting order did that, his team would produce 27 bases and 9 runs.
I think BP and RP are a much easier to compute and comprehend way of evaluating player’s offensive skills than the “super numbers” the sabermaticians have come up in recent years, like Total Average, (an oxymoron), Offensive Winning Percentage, Runs Created and Win Shares, which Bill James used 86 pages to explain in a book. The numbers would be more relevant than batting average, homers and steals, yet nearly as easy to compute and comprehend. Maybe BP and RP would be the stats everybody would know about their favorite player or the guy they think should be MVP, (although that call should be based on more than just a stat).
Anyway, we are embarked on a new season and I am again going to post the monthly top ten rankings in BP and RP, along with the per- game averages, although the ranking will be based on the total.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Bases Produced
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 265 in 80 games (3.31)
Chris Davis, Orioles 252 in 82 games (3.07)
Mike Trout Angels 242 in 81 games (2.99)
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 209 in 81 games (2.58)
Evan Longoria, Ryas 201 in 80 games (2.51)
Dustin Pedroia Red Sox 198 in 83 games (2.39)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox 197 in 77 games (2.56)
Manny Machado, Orioles 196 in 83 games (2.36)
Robinson Cano, Yankees 195 in 81 games (2.41)
Josh Donaldson Athletics 195 in 81 games (2.41)
Runs Produced
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers 121 in 80 games (1.51)
Chris Davis, Orioles 109 in 82 games (1.33)
Adam Jones, Orioles 98 in 83 games (1.18)
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays 97 in 81 games (1.20)
Mike Trout Angels 96 in 81 games (1.19)
Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox 95 in 83 games (1.14)
Prince Fielder. Tigers 89 in 80 games (1.11)
Manny Machado, Orioles 89 in 83 games (1.07)
Daniel Nava, Red Sox 84 in 75 games (1.12)
Josh Donaldson, Athletics 84 in 81 games (1.04)
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Bases Produced
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 242 in 81 games (2.99)
Joey Votto, Reds 222 in 82 games (2.71)
Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs 215 in 80 games (2.69)
David Wright, Mets 202 in 77 games (2.62)
Shin-Soo Choo, Reds 200 in 79 games (2.53)
Jean Segura, Brewers 200 in 79 games (2.53)
Jay Bruce, Reds 198 in 81 games (2.44)
Domonic Brown, Phillies 194 in 82 games (2.37)
Hunter Pence, Giants 192 in 81 games (2.37)
Carlos Gomez, Brewers 190 in 75 games (2.53)
Runs produced
Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs 101 in 80 games (1.26)
Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies 101 in 81 games (1.25)
Allen Craig, Cardinals 98 in 78 games (1.26)
Brandon Phillips, Reds 91 in 74 games (1.23)
Matt Holliday, Cardinals 89 in 76 games (1.17)
Matt Carpenter, Cardinals 85 in 77 games (1.10)
Freddie Freeman, Braves 84 in 69 games (1.22)
Andrew McCutcheon 83 in 78 games (1.06)
Jay Bruce, Reds 82 in 81 games (1.01)
Joey Votto, Reds 80 in 82 games (0.98)
