BC Part II Post Game

[SouthernCuse]

Donald Hand Jr. was 91% at the line coming into today and went 3-8 from the line.

Can someone better at math than me tell us what the statistical probability is of that happening?

Well okay, but I am doing the math by hand in a bar.
It's a binomial distribution, make-no make with p=0.91
His mean for 8 shots is np or 7.2
Variance of the binomial is np(1-p) so about 0.64
He made 3 for 8 or 0.375, difference from expected of about 0.345
Divide by variance.345/0.64.
I ain't doing the long division, but just over 5 sigma eyeballing it
Which is 1 in 3.5 million in a normal distribution.
This is a small sample binomial , so I would eyeball it as a 3 sigma normal or about
0.3%, which sounds about right.

 

[Jake]

As a coach, this is as bad as it could possibly be. Like you can't watch this and tell me that he can coach. This is awful and this was coming out of a timeout. Like what are we doing? There are so many things going wrong. This his like HIGH SCHOOL level stuff. This is terrible.

So what is Eddie doing there. At the game, Naheem had been subbed in…but was taken out after the 2nd time out. I know everyone wants to blame JJ, but he has to guard the inbounder. The screener takes him out(great design by BC). It’s Eddie’s Decision to mistakenly sit back that creates the 3-2 BC advantage.

He has to follow his guy out high!!!! If he does he can hedge and allow recovery!!!

Eddie makes the critical error here!

 

[djcon57]

As a coach, this is as bad as it could possibly be. Like you can't watch this and tell me that he can coach. This is awful and this was coming out of a timeout. Like what are we doing? There are so many things going wrong. This his like HIGH SCHOOL level stuff. This is terrible.

My favorite part of the rewatch is of course they bring up Eddie in the PNR….and of course JJ goes under the screen, but the underrated part is….EDDIE BACKS UP!!

OH NO, you don’t want to give him a layup up 3 with like 1 second left. just dreadful

 

[djcon57]

So what is Eddie doing there. At the game, Naheem had been subbed in…but was taken out after the 2nd time out. I know everyone wants to blame JJ, but he has to guard the inbounder. The screener takes him out(great design by BC). It’s Eddie’s Decision to mistakenly sit back that creates the 3-2 BC advantage.

jinx!

 

[Jake]

jinx!

Eddie is protecting a 2 in a 3 point game with under .04 to go.

Lazy.

 

[phsyra]

This is a big win for Red. I think we can start talking contract extension now.

The real question is how many years do we give him. Im thinking a deal similar to what Schiano has.

I love this team. So fun to watch and such great effort and discipline...

 

[Cheriehoop]

So what is Eddie doing there. At the game, Naheem had been subbed in…but was taken out after the 2nd time out. I know everyone wants to blame JJ, but he has to guard the inbounder. The screener takes him out(great design by BC). It’s Eddie’s Decision to mistakenly sit back that creates the 3-2 BC advantage.

He has to follow his guy out high!!!! If he does he can hedge and allow recovery!!!

Eddie makes the critical error here!

My son said the exact same thing. He questioned why Eddie or McLeod would be in the game at that point - he asked why we had a center out there at that time since neither ever steps up on a screen thus he thought it was a Red error.

 

[Cuse2023]

Eddie is protecting a 2 in a 3 point game with under .04 to go.

Lazy.

That's not laziness. He didn't know what to do.

Coaching matters.

"Eddie if they set the ball screen and JJ can't fight through it you need to attack the ball handler and make sure he doesn't get a three off"

"NO THREES. RUN THEM OFF THE THREE POINT LINE. GIVE THEM A TWO OR FOUL A NON SHOOTER."

 

[kingtidge]

That’s officially the last time I ever perform math on this board for the rest of my life.

I just checked my common core flash card... That's 100% wrong.

 

[Eric15]

My son said the exact same thing.

My 10 yo son said the S word for the first time around me after that three went in. "Are you shttng me?!" And I didn't even get mad because I felt the same way.

 

[phil77]

So what is Eddie doing there. At the game, Naheem had been subbed in…but was taken out after the 2nd time out. I know everyone wants to blame JJ, but he has to guard the inbounder. The screener takes him out(great design by BC). It’s Eddie’s Decision to mistakenly sit back that creates the 3-2 BC advantage.

He has to follow his guy out high!!!! If he does he can hedge and allow recovery!!!

Eddie makes the critical error here!

Red makes the first mistake neither Eddie or Naheem should be in the game Taylor should have been in for that final possession and Davis should have been playing the center position. Eddie is probably your worst defensive player why is he even in the game to begin with?? McLoud your slowest player why would he even be in the game trying to chase people around the 3 point line?? Coach needs to put players in a position to succeed.

I agree Eddie should never have been in the paint here no reason. Why wasn't that stressed? It was a double timeout? If it was stressed why isn't Red's voice heard? This is do-or-die time? Game on the line? If you can get your players to follow your orders now that is big red flag as well.

Why is JJ going under the screen? Is that the plan? That is the way we deal with every screen so I assume that is what JJs first reaction is to do? In no circumstance should we be going under screens in this situation your job is to foul him or run him off the 3-point line and you can only do that by going over the screen. JJs route after the pass in bounds is terrible he doesn't follow his man he runs straight down and into the screen? That is terrible coaching on what your player should do. The team is coached to go under screens which is a terrible strategy in today's games. There is another example in overtime when JC goes under a screen and gives up a wide-open 3. Why are we still doing this it is a terrible strategy and has killed us all season with no adjustment. Again if Red is telling them what to do and they are doing something different then that is a worse look than what is actually happening on the court.

 

[Cheriehoop]

That's not Laziness. He didn't know what to do.

Coaching matters.

Not to be negative but a 5th year player should actually know but Red should have known that Eddie hasn’t done it and adjusted.

 

[HyattsCuse]

That's not laziness. He didn't know what to do.

Coaching matters.

"Eddie if they set the ball screen and JJ can't fight over you need to attack the ball handler and make sure he doesn't get a three off"

I criticize Red for a lot of things (100% agree our centers should have been parked on the bench, that’s Red). I just can’t believe he’s this bad coaching how to defend screens. I have to believe our guys are just not capable of the level of real-time thinking required to take what they are taught and apply it in games like defending screens. It’s just sad. I may be reaching, but really hoping that’s a large part of it so there’s a chance all of our new players next year are not as mentally challenged.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

But Eddie made TWO dunks today.

Well I seen a horse fly
I seen a dragon fly
I seen a house fly
I seen all that too
I seen a peanut stand
And heard a rubber band
I seen a needle that winked its eye
But I've been, done, seen about everything
When I've seen an elephant fly

 

[kingtidge]

I criticize Red for a lot of things (100% agree our centers should have been parked on the bench, that’s Red). I just can’t believe he’s this bad coaching how to defend screens. I have to believe our guys are just not capable of the level of real-time thinking required to take what they are taught and apply it in games like defending screens. It’s just sad. I may be reaching, but really hoping that’s a large part of it so there’s a chance all of our new players next year are not as mentally challenged.

These guys made it to D1 college basketball because they have skills.

Players need good coaching and direction to execute effectively. It's why you pay coaches millions a year.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

Well that was less than inspiring!!!

Would have been easy for the guys to pack it in. Proud they did.

 

[phil77]

I criticize Red for a lot of things (100% agree our centers should have been parked on the bench, that’s Red). I just can’t believe he’s this bad coaching how to defend screens. I have to believe our guys are just not capable of the level of real-time thinking required to take what they are taught and apply it in games like defending screens. It’s just sad. I may be reaching, but really hoping that’s a large part of it so there’s a chance all of our new players next year are not as mentally challenged.

Later in the game. This is what they are coached to do.

 

[DilemaCuse]

Does this take the cake of worst win? Where does it rank with Youngstown St Lemoyne, Colgate etc?

I didn't think we could top those non conference ones.

 

[kingtidge]

Later in the game. This is what they are coached to do.

You are a demon masked in human flesh.

Begone unclean spirit. The power of Christ compels you!

 

[HyattsCuse]

These guys made it to D1 college basketball because they have skills.

Players need good coaching and direction to execute effectively. It's why you pay coaches millions a year.

*physical skills. Sure.

I’m referring to between the ears. You can get away with low basketball IQ in high school / AAU. You get on the big stage, everything is moving faster, so much information to process on the court. I believe it’s too much for some of our guys regardless of their physical skills.

Constantly going under screens or not hedging is Exhibit A. I can’t believe this hasn’t been addressed a million times in practice. If I’m wrong, I guess Red is worse than I thought and I already don’t think he’s going to figure it out.

 

[phil77]

These guys made it to D1 college basketball because they have skills.

Players need good coaching and direction to execute effectively. It's why you pay coaches millions a year.

Correct...

 

[JustPherU]

Well okay, but I am doing the math by hand in a bar.
It's a binomial distribution, make-no make with p=0.91
His mean for 8 shots is np or 7.2
Variance of the binomial is np(1-p) so about 0.64
He made 3 for 8 or 0.375, difference from expected of about 0.345
Divide by variance.345/0.64.
I ain't doing the long division, but just over 5 sigma eyeballing it
Which is 1 in 3.5 million in a normal distribution.
This is a small sample binomial , so I would eyeball it as a 3 sigma normal or about
0.3%, which sounds about right.

Yeah that’s what I got

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

It's time to get nerdy.

According to AI:
If a player is a 90% free throw shooter, the chance of them missing two foul shots is 1%.

Explanation:

• To miss a free throw, the probability is 10% (since they make 90%).
• Since each free throw is independent, to miss both, you multiply the probability of missing one by itself: 0.1 x 0.1 = 0.01, which is 1%.

---

So if Donald Hand Jr. was 91%, the chances of missing a free throw was 9%. The chances of missing five are 0.09 x 0.09 x 0.09 x 0.09 x 0.09 which is 0.00059049%.

I would think the numbers would change with each miss, with the odds going up after each miss.

 

[PhatOrange]

That was entertaining, like watching midget wrestling.

 

[baggerbob]

Eddie is protecting a 2 in a 3 point game with under .04 to go.

Lazy.

Eddie has no concept of defense, or game situations, and that's on the coach. It doesn't make any difference if your coach has no idea what he is doing.