Betting lines

[upperdeck]

Time to start sharpening the pencils, put away the DRF and head to vegas.

is it too early to start looking for where values may come? what are we thinking?

CCST no line
Mid Tenn +3
Cent Mich +6
LSU -30
NC state - 13
Pitt -3
Clemson -30
Miami - 17
FSU -24
Wake + 3
UL - 20
BC + 6

 

[Whitey23]

Great minds think alike. I just posted this at the same time from 5dimes.

 

[upperdeck]

Mid tenn is getting a lot of love, I am surprised that line is that high for us
we were 24 pt dogs at home vs LSU, 20 down there gives us a fighting chance
clemson I went by perception, I expect more like 24

i wasnt too far off on many though.

I think by year end we could be -9 vs BC though

they give us a shot at 5 wins and a pickem vs Pitt at home

I think we would take that 6 wins with no real upsets.

 

[JLine]

The over 4.5 is free money, but money tied up that long is rough. Personally, I don't mind.

 

[rocklloyd]

I kinda like that LSU bet with the 20.5 points

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Time to start sharpening the pencils, put away the DRF and head to vegas.

is it too early to start looking for where values may come? what are we thinking?

CCST no line
Mid Tenn +3
Cent Mich +6
LSU -30
NC state - 13
Pitt -3
Clemson -30
Miami - 17
FSU -24
Wake + 3
UL - 20
BC + 6

Blasphemy. DRF never goes away and no way does it go away before Labor Day, pre Travers this Saturday as well? Come on!!!

 

[rocklloyd]

Blasphemy. DRF never goes away and no way does it go away before Labor Day, pre Travers this Saturday as well? Come on!!!

I finally learned how to read the DRF this year. I find myself gravitating to the Beyer speed figure and jockey to make my selection.

 

[upperdeck]

DRF doesnt go away until after Saratoga is over.. I just play less with the horses except for the breeders cup.. i really like Betmix but you have to be playing every day to get the value in that.

 

[upperdeck]

Made a ton of money on beyers before it got published in the racing forms every day.. then they tweaked the numbers and it has not been nearly as useful since the lines have changed so much because of it.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I finally learned how to read the DRF this year. I find myself gravitating to the Beyer speed figure and jockey to make my selection.

A couple of many factors that can be brought into trying to pick winners. Then again you could just bet all the horses Jose Ortiz rides and probably be OK. He put on a clinic yesterday. He made a apprentice jockey in the 5th at Saratoga yesterday look downright foolish. I like Ragozin sheets as well as Timeforum US.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Made a ton of money on beyers before it got published in the racing forms every day.. then they tweaked the numbers and it has not been nearly as useful since the lines have changed so much because of it.

Agreed, really have to look at PACE and try to visualize how the race will be run etc. Turf racing being so prevalent at Saratoga these days it can be very tricky and as so many jocks/ Trainers try to slow the pace down up front and turn two turn races into a 1/8 mile sprint at the end. Those trainers and jocks that are riding pure speed on the turf, going to the lead and trying to steal the win on the front end are rare but have been successful. I really like Joze Lezcano on the grass at Saratoga he has some realy nice wins on some price horses

 

[IthacaBarrel]

All That said, the Travers is basically going to be impossible to handicap.

Hit two nice pick 5's early at Saratoga and one nice pick 3 this past weekend that have kept me in the black for the meet. It's a grind

 

[IthacaBarrel]

DRF doesnt go away until after Saratoga is over.. I just play less with the horses except for the breeders cup.. i really like Betmix but you have to be playing every day to get the value in that.

BetMix and Thorograph are both really nice products with some learning curve. My problem at Saratoga is I like to have all my handicapping done before I go in because I sit at the picnic tables and it turns into a party, if I try to look at the races I just start taking flyers

 

[Nahson]

LSU is getting 30? I'm not saying I expect us to win or even that it will be super close but I think our offense won't allow a 30 point discrepancy. Especially if the defense plays, even just a little bit better. I feel like, with that line, it's a safe bet. Am I alone on that one?

 

[UnknownOrange]

LSU is getting 30? I'm not saying I expect us to win or even that it will be super close but I think our offense won't allow a 30 point discrepancy. Especially if the defense plays, even just a little bit better. I feel like, with that line, it's a safe bet. Am I alone on that one?

We lost by 30+, 3 times last year. We will go on the road to a likely top 10 LSU team with the same OC who hung 76 on us last year. I don't think they'll beat us by 30, but i'm not sure "safe" is a word I'd use haha

 

[Nahson]

We lost by 30+, 3 times last year. We will go on the road to a likely top 10 LSU team with the same OC who hung 76 on us last year. I don't think they'll beat us by 30, but i'm not sure "safe" is a word I'd use haha

I feel ya. Thanks for keeping me level headed. Idk I still might throw some money at it though.

 

[UnknownOrange]

I feel ya. Thanks for keeping me level headed. Idk I still might throw some money at it though.

Haha maybe do a parlay with the over. I'm with you though that this offense can keep us in a lot of games if not keep it within reason. I'd take us getting 30 but wouldn't be shocked if it went the other way

 

[TexanMark]

Vito outside the Nortside Smokeshop on Nort Saline is taking CCSU action at 32 points.

 

[rocklloyd]

A couple of many factors that can be brought into trying to pick winners. Then again you could just bet all the horses Jose Ortiz rides and probably be OK. He put on a clinic yesterday. He made a apprentice jockey in the 5th at Saratoga yesterday look downright foolish. I like Ragozin sheets as well as Timeforum US.

That's my wife's trick and she did better than me.

 

[007]

LSU is getting 30? I'm not saying I expect us to win or even that it will be super close but I think our offense won't allow a 30 point discrepancy. Especially if the defense plays, even just a little bit better. I feel like, with that line, it's a safe bet. Am I alone on that one?

You are alone because LSU is giving 30. Seriously though, that number is from the upperdeck line, which was an educated guess. Whitey23 posted the 5dimes lines above.

 

[690West]

LSU is getting 30? I'm not saying I expect us to win or even that it will be super close but I think our offense won't allow a 30 point discrepancy. Especially if the defense plays, even just a little bit better. I feel like, with that line, it's a safe bet. Am I alone on that one?

That is the line that upper thought it would be. Actually line is closer to -20

 

[690West]

You are alone because LSU is giving 30. Seriously though, that number is from the upperdeck line, which was an educated guess. Whitey23 posted the 5dimes lines above.

Dang. Beat me to it.

 

[007]

Dang. Beat me to it.

I should leave the line stuff to you, Jack!

 

[upperdeck]

my lines are more generous than most.. I sure hope LSU doesnt win by 30 but if you go by the perception of a top 10 team, being at home with an OC that killed us last year, and then add what people generally think of SU , i think it would take 30 to get the line moving towards us..

now if we start 3-0, it probably stays around 20, but us losing by 30 wont take that much effort if we dont play well.

 

[ImperialOrange]

I'm really curious what the o/u come in at as an indication of what Vegas thinks our defense can or cannot do this year.