BG's defense

[OrangeTarheel]

4 years? This is the fourth straight coach someone has said that. There is no need to wait 4 years to show success. I expect a bowl game next year as a minimum. If not it's a failure.

Fair enough. At first this sounded crazy to me but I guess we really need to own this hire and the offense that comes with it. So what do we say if we are not bowling in 2016?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Fair enough. At first this sounded crazy to me but I guess we really need to own this hire and the offense that comes with it. So what do we say if we are not bowling in 2016?

We say put in the fullback and run the option. Innovation gets one shot, Northeast Meathead lasts forever.

 

[syracuse95]

Did you only watch the GA Southern game? I watched 3 or 4 BGSU games this year (far before I knew we were getting Dino) and then the MAC championship and the defense was fine in those games. People are massively overreacting about this.

Is it fair to assess how this staff will do with Syracuse's roster based on one game, or even a full season at another school? No. But I don't know that I would classify Bowling Green's defense as fine. They did okay in the games that they won. In their losses, they gave up an average of over 51 points per game. That's a lot, and it wasn't just against P5 teams.

I love the hire of Babers. Offense needed to be the focus and it clearly is. I also think defense is far more important to this system than some give credit for. I think some people are a little concerned, which I can understand based on some of what BG did this year defensively. We just have to see how it plays out.

 

[Finwad32]

Time of possession (TOP). I keep hearing references to the defense will be on the field longer, which I think is absolutely true, but, not to as great of an extent as you'd imagine.

Essentially, I want to put to bed the rumor that this makes it "acceptable" to have a bad defense.

Avg TOP 2015-16 National Rankings

92) Syracuse
103) Tulsa
104) BG
107) Oregon
114) Baylor
127) UNC

All of these teams were somewhere close to 28 min. Per game, which means the opponent was around 32.

Time of possession was always taught to me as a key stat, which with two pro-style offenses it absolutely is. It's meaningless in this system.

The defense is on the field 4 more min. Per game than the offense, and roughly 5/6 more minutes, or, 1/12 of the game longer than the best ball control teams in the country.(there are a couple outliers (Stanford / Alabama) but the largest grouping starts at about 33 and change.)

Over the courses of a season, the defense will play roughly one more game than the best ball control team in the country's defense. The middle of the pack defenses in the country give up roughly 400 yards per game, so essentially you've got to overcome 400 more yards of offense, or 33 ypg, roughly, over a 12 game slate.

33 ypg is roughly 10-20 slots of differentiation on the total team defense rankings by yardage.

Long story short, yes it's true they're on the field more, but it shouldn't be a crutch to defend a horrendously terrible defense. They would still be terrible even if TOP evened out.

Syracuse was 92 in TOP this year and 99 in Total Defense. BG 104/85.

So if BG's defense is on the field as little as the top ball control teams in the country, it's fair to says they would still rank in the 60-75 range 60 and 75 being extreme ends. Probably closer to 65-70.

 

[money3189]

Time of possession (TOP). I keep hearing references to the defense will be on the field longer, which I think is absolutely true, but, not to as great of an extent as you'd imagine.

Essentially, I want to put to bed the rumor that this makes it "acceptable" to have a bad defense.

Avg TOP 2015-16 National Rankings

92) Syracuse
103) Tulsa
104) BG
107) Oregon
114) Baylor
127) UNC

All of these teams were somewhere close to 28 min. Per game, which means the opponent was around 32.

Time of possession was always taught to me as a key stat, which with two pro-style offenses it absolutely is. It's meaningless in this system.

The defense is on the field 4 more min. Per game than the offense, and roughly 5/6 more minutes, or, 1/12 of the game longer than the best ball control teams in the country.(there are a couple outliers (Stanford / Alabama) but the largest grouping starts at about 33 and change.)

Over the courses of a season, the defense will play roughly one more game than the best ball control team in the country's defense. The middle of the pack defenses in the country give up roughly 400 yards per game, so essentially you've got to overcome 400 more yards of offense, or 33 ypg, roughly, over a 12 game slate.

33 ypg is roughly 10-20 slots of differentiation on the total team defense rankings by yardage.

Long story short, yes it's true they're on the field more, but it shouldn't be a crutch to defend a horrendously terrible defense. They would still be terrible even if TOP evened out.

Syracuse was 92 in TOP this year and 99 in Total Defense. BG 104/85.

So if BG's defense is on the field as little as the top ball control teams in the country, it's fair to says they would still rank in the 60-75 range 60 and 75 being extreme ends. Probably closer to 65-70.

Good stuff Fin, It really evens out. If we are top 20 on offense and have the 60th ranked defense, Im all for it if we are winning 8-9 games a year.

 

[money3189]

4 years? This is the fourth straight coach someone has said that. There is no need to wait 4 years to show success. I expect a bowl game next year as a minimum. If not it's a failure.

I think we have enough talent to win 6 games next year no doubt but the pieces of the puzzle still have to come together in order to see true production next year. When Shafer took over. The defensive staff was still in tact. Players knew his style and philosophy and didnt have to be sold on it. The side that he didnt have his hands on struggled and thats why we saw the results we had. HCDB is going to have to work to change the culture to what he wants. Whole new staff from strength coach to recruiting coor. It takes time to develop offensive continuity especially with players you didnt recruit for the system. I have a feeling that some players will transfer because they will be asked to switch positions. Some will leave and take their degree. This is the type of stuff that happens when a new coach is inserted. Shafer didnt have to go through that. So I wont be totally surprised if we only win 4 or 5 games next year. I do have faith that HCDB will get more wins than that.

 

[PAcuse]

I clearly did not want HCSS to go, but that will play zero into my thought process on how Dino is doing. What's done is done. Like Dino said it takes 2 years to fully get his offense going. No reason we can't get 6 wins with this team, we got 4 with mostly freshman playing. I'm seeing way to many people "worried" about Bowling Greens defense after watching the bowl game they played in. I thought the BG defense played well in the MAC championship game and everything else I've read about them is that they where moving in the right direction from being very bad 2 years ago. They also did this after losing 9 starters.

 

[ClkWrkOrange]

So this is starting before they've even run a single practice?

 

[Chip]

4 years? This is the fourth straight coach someone has said that. There is no need to wait 4 years to show success. I expect a bowl game next year as a minimum. If not it's a failure.

That's harsh for a new guy coming in from the outside. But I don't think we need to wait four years either. Babers has always said you'll see my offense working as it's supposed to sometime during year 2. His year 2 schedule is going to be brutal but winning 6 games isn't moving mountains.

I think he get some rope in year 1, especially if he can get a couple 450 yardage type games by season's end.

Given the changes we're going thru (which won't work instantly), I think next year's OOC is going to be tougher than people think when they read the names.

 

[TheCusian]

I clearly did not want HCSS to go, but that will play zero into my thought process on how Dino is doing. What's done is done. Like Dino said it takes 2 years to fully get his offense going. No reason we can't get 6 wins with this team, we got 4 with mostly freshman playing. I'm seeing way to many people "worried" about Bowling Greens defense after watching the bowl game they played in. I thought the BG defense played well in the MAC championship game and everything else I've read about them is that they where moving in the right direction from being very bad 2 years ago. They also did this after losing 9 starters.

And played in the MAC championship game both years.

 

[rrlbees]

That's harsh for a new guy coming in from the outside. But I don't think we need to wait four years either. Babers has always said you'll see my offense working as it's supposed to sometime during year 2. His year 2 schedule is going to be brutal but winning 6 games isn't moving mountains. I think he get some rope in year 1, especially if he can get a couple 450 yardage type games by season's end. Given the changes we're going thru (which won't work instantly), I think next year's OOC is going to be tougher than people think when they read the names.

Harsh? So as long as we keep changing coaches every 3-4 years, GRob, Marrone, Shafer, Babers, and saying the new guy needs 4 years, we don't ever have to expect to be good?

 

[Ottoble]

I stand by what I said.

I agree with Bees this team was young but talented this year made young mistakes and caches made clock management mistakes but was in almost every game and at times felt on the precipice.

They were 4-8, 4 points shy of 6-6, 24 points shy of 8-4.

They gave up 20 points alone on poor clock management before halftime this year. Bowl game should be an expectation next year and every year for this program.

 

[Ottoble]

Well, I hope we go to a bowl game next year, but I hope you're prepared for disappointment. Even Dino Babers thinks it will take 2 years to implement his system.

Managing expectations.

 

[Chip]

Harsh? So as long as we keep changing coaches every 3-4 years, GRob, Marrone, Shafer, Babers, and saying the new guy needs 4 years, we don't ever have to expect to be good?

It's harsh to tell a coach inheriting a 3-9 and 4-8 team that if he doesn't get to a bowl game in year 1 it's a failure. That was the harsh part.

Agree that he shouldn't need 4 years. Bowl by year 2. Soar by year 4 (I know SWC likes those rhymes).

 

[HOFCeluck]

They were 4-8, 4 points shy of 6-6, 24 points shy of 8-4.

...and four points shy of 2-10. That logic is almost always a two way street.

 

[rrlbees]

It's harsh to tell a coach inheriting a 3-9 and 4-8 team that if he doesn't get to a bowl game in year 1 it's a failure. That was the harsh part. Agree that he shouldn't need 4 years. Bowl by year 2. Soar by year 4 (I know SWC likes those rhymes).

The 4 years was my main point that I responded too. But after a season of many coaching mistakes and the numerous injuries and the youth, I do expect a bowl game. Heck, we really weren't that far away this year and I consider this year as having been a failure. So yes, regardless of the coaching change...again, I do expect 6-6. That's my minimum expectation every year.

 

[Crusty]

I have to be somewhat concerned with Ward and with the cover 2. The MAC features a lot of pro style offense, and pocket passing QBs. The ACC is going to throw a lot of offenses at him like Clemson, and Louisville, for example, that will be much more multiple, and feature some elements of a pro style, but some elements of the spread, and QBs who can and will run the ball (Ward and BGSU seemed to have no answer for the running QBs of GA Southern). I also worry about getting a consistant pass rush in the ACC with what appears to be more of a focus on a traditional four man rush. At the end of the day Babers has to win games and how he does it is up to him.

He also uses a 4-2-5 against spread teams. As you know that means 3 safties. I think he will do better than we have before.

 

[SoBristol]

Amazing that so many posters focus only on the coaches.
We had the same defensive coaches in 2014 and 2015 -- but the players changed, and the defensive results changed. Might tell you something about the importance of players.

Babers' offense depends a lot on what he has at QB and WR. Will Dungey stay healthy in 2016 and who is his back-up?
Our defense will depend a lot on how much our LBs and secondary improve, and whether the new staff can rebuild at DE. Can they?

If you can answer some of these questions about the players, I can project whether the new coaches will get us a bowl game in 2016.

 

[money3189]

The 4 years was my main point that I responded too. But after a season of many coaching mistakes and the numerous injuries and the youth, I do expect a bowl game. Heck, we really weren't that far away this year and I consider this year as having been a failure. So yes, regardless of the coaching change...again, I do expect 6-6. That's my minimum expectation every year.

Respect your thoughts and expectations Bees as always.

 

[sdhall01]

The 4 years was my main point that I responded too. But after a season of many coaching mistakes and the numerous injuries and the youth, I do expect a bowl game. Heck, we really weren't that far away this year and I consider this year as having been a failure. So yes, regardless of the coaching change...again, I do expect 6-6. That's my minimum expectation every year.

THIS IS AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT SYSTEM it will look nothing like Shafer's offense. How in God's green earth can you possibly have expectations for him to go 6-6 when there will be an entirely different system filled with people that do not necessarily fit in that system? The fact that they are sophomores now and they were freshman last year is all but irrelevant because EVERYBODY is starting from scratch. Give the man time to build HIS team before you pass judgment on him. Otherwise you are setting him up for failure.

 

[Crusty]

While we are short in the WR department and could have line challenges on both sides of the ball, the cupboard is not bare. We may have the best QB in decades, a nice stable of backs and some promising youngsters.

Next year could get rough as everybody on our schedule looks to be improved. Our bye week is in the second week and before our new offense gets going we could be 1-3 going into conference play.
A lot of the staff will be coaching at their positions in the P5 for the first time.
Could be that 6-6 would be a good performance.

 

[Crusty]

Is Q & A another way of saying "read and react" or is it somehow different?

 

[Nick44]

Speaking of Meathead... I can't wait until next August, at the peak of our excitement and enthusiasm when Bud predicts a 4-8 season.

 

[Finwad32]

THIS IS AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT SYSTEM it will look nothing like Shafer's offense. How in God's green earth can you possibly have expectations for him to go 6-6 when there will be an entirely different system filled with people that do not necessarily fit in that system? The fact that they are sophomores now and they were freshman last year is all but irrelevant because EVERYBODY is starting from scratch. Give the man time to build HIS team before you pass judgment on him. Otherwise you are setting him up for failure.

HCSS had an entirely different offensive system, and to an extent defense. It was CB's D with Sprinkles of SS. His expectations were similar and he went 7-6 in year 1.

Expectations aren't a bad thing.

I'm expecting results in year 1, at the very least offensively anyway.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

THIS IS AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT SYSTEM it will look nothing like Shafer's offense. How in God's green earth can you possibly have expectations for him to go 6-6 when there will be an entirely different system filled with people that do not necessarily fit in that system? The fact that they are sophomores now and they were freshman last year is all but irrelevant because EVERYBODY is starting from scratch. Give the man time to build HIS team before you pass judgment on him. Otherwise you are setting him up for failure.

Because I think his offensive system is a lot better.