Big 12 to expand...or not

[elimunelson]

Glad none of this impacts our immediate future.

I'm curious how this benefits Texas in any way.

 

[Alsacs]

What the Big XII is actually trying to do is the following. Get ESPN/Fox to talk extension with 10 members right now at the same price they are paying the conference currently.

The Big XII has an expansion clause in their current agreement that ESPN/Fox would pay the conference an additional 250 million for every school up to 4 that the conference adds. That money wouldn't be for good schools either it would come from American schools. People might ask why would the Big XII try to leverage its TV partners to pay an extra 500 million dollars when th conference would be watering down the product.

Well the answer is ESPN pays peanuts for the American TV rights. They pay about 50million dollars a year for the entire conference. The Big XII adding Cincinnati and another school would cost ESPN and Fox an extra 250 million dollars to add a mediocre TV draw.

Thus, the Big XII is bluffing now they will expand to try and get ESPN and Fox to extend their current deal where the networks are paying the 10 team conference a deal as if their were 12 teams.

 

[Toga]

The impetus?

The Big12 immediately realized that the ACC Network & possibly more importantly expanding the GOR made them the weakest link.

They had to do something, otherwise it would just be a matter of time before they were picked apart by the others. The question is, does adding the like of Cinncinati, BYU, etc. fundamentally change the perception of being the weakest link? I seriously question that, but their contract at least allows them to make good $$ for the programs until such time as they break up (assuming they won't be giving any new additions a full share immediately, it is more $ in the pockets of existing programs)

I guess, but it already seemed pretty clear they were the weakest link.

 

[Toga]

What the Big XII is actually trying to do is the following. Get ESPN/Fox to talk extension with 10 members right now at the same price they are paying the conference currently.

The Big XII has an expansion clause in their current agreement that ESPN/Fox would pay the conference an additional 250 million for every school up to 4 that the conference adds. That money wouldn't be for good schools either it would come from American schools. People might ask why would the Big XII try to leverage its TV partners to pay an extra 500 million dollars when th conference would be watering down the product.

Well the answer is ESPN pays peanuts for the American TV rights. They pay about 50million dollars a year for the entire conference. The Big XII adding Cincinnati and another school would cost ESPN and Fox an extra 250 million dollars to add a mediocre TV draw.

Thus, the Big XII is bluffing now they will expand to try and get ESPN and Fox to extend their current deal where the networks are paying the 10 team conference a deal as if their were 12 teams.

Interesting take. Pretty ballsy if that happens and end up adding nobody.

 

[TheCusian]

Interesting take. Pretty ballsy if that happens and end up adding nobody.

I bet that if it doesn't work, they'll just add 2 teams - Houston, Memphis/Cinci

 

[Toga]

I bet that if it doesn't work, they'll just add 2 teams - Houston, Memphis/Cinci

Two sounds about right. The horsetrading would occur on two fronts. For two teams vs four - they get ESPN to lengthen the deal and perhaps sweeten it beyond the required increase of the current contract terms. In addition, they are asking for proposals from (more than) four teams which has the effect of having the applicants lowball themselves - with the existing league teams reaping the financial benefit. That said, I suspect the whole approach is gamesmanship which will end up with two new teams bending over financially to join.

 

[Alsacs]

If the Big XII expands by 2 teams I would predict BYU and Cincinnati.
They are the best chess pieces out there left.
If they go to 14 teams BYU/Cincinnati/Memphis/UCF would be my bet.

 

[SU2NASA]

Yes, but they're junior members, so they make less than the Michigans and Ohio States. And what they've lost in terms of recruiting and rivalries probably isn't worth the extra money.

That's incorrect. There's no such thing as a 'junior member'. The Big Ten evenly splits revenue.

Rutgers is the only exception as they are being ramped up to a full share.

 

[SU2NASA]

I do not follow the program so I have no idea, but has Tulane given any indication that they are committed to "big-time" athletics?

 

[TheCusian]

That's incorrect. There's no such thing as a 'junior member'. The Big Ten evenly splits revenue. Rutgers is the only exception as they are being ramped up to a full share.

Semantics. The $ says what your status to the conference is.

 

[sutomcat]

What the Big XII is actually trying to do is the following. Get ESPN/Fox to talk extension with 10 members right now at the same price they are paying the conference currently.

The Big XII has an expansion clause in their current agreement that ESPN/Fox would pay the conference an additional 250 million for every school up to 4 that the conference adds. That money wouldn't be for good schools either it would come from American schools. People might ask why would the Big XII try to leverage its TV partners to pay an extra 500 million dollars when th conference would be watering down the product.

Well the answer is ESPN pays peanuts for the American TV rights. They pay about 50million dollars a year for the entire conference. The Big XII adding Cincinnati and another school would cost ESPN and Fox an extra 250 million dollars to add a mediocre TV draw.

Thus, the Big XII is bluffing now they will expand to try and get ESPN and Fox to extend their current deal where the networks are paying the 10 team conference a deal as if their were 12 teams.

Interesting take. If ESPN calls their bluff though and honors the contract, the B12 can also the extra money they get and keep most of it for themselves.

Let's say the contract expires in ten years. If they add 4 schools, the B12 gets an extra 1 billion dollars. If they give the 4 schools 5 million dollars each per season, that will cost the B12 20 million a year or 200 million over 1o years.

The other 800 million could be split among the 10 existing B12 schools. 80 million split 10 ways = an extra 8 million per year.

Of course, they are stuck with a couple of unattractive schools long term. But if the B12 can add teams and not extend the GOR or TV contract, UT and OU could get through the next decade with competitive payouts, then wait for the B12 GOR to expire and go to the highest bidder.

 

[kcsu]

Good take TC

 

[SU2NASA]

Semantics. The $ says what your status to the conference is.

His point was Nebraska was a junior member, which is basically made-up.

Rutgers on the other hand, they have zero respect within the conference.

 

[TheCusian]

His point was Nebraska was a junior member, which is basically made-up.

Rutgers on the other hand, they have zero respect within the conference.

Yeah - sure. I'm just saying "full membership" implies full money. I'd be ticked if we were on some sort of ramp to full membership $. But they are Rutgers and are probably happy to just be in the p5.

 

[Alsacs]

When Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2010 Tom Osborne and Jim Delany negotiated a fair deal.
Since the Big Ten had 6 years left on its TV deal at that time and because of the costs to upstart the Big Ten Network. Nebraska agreed to take less than a full share for 6 years to pay the rest of the conference it's share to buy into the BTN equally. The other 11 teams wanted Nebraska to pay those same costs.

Thus, when the conference added Rutgers and Maryland in 2012 the conference imposed the same deal on those 2 to be fair to Nebraska.

 

[Toga]

When Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2010 Tom Osborne and Jim Delany negotiated a fair deal.
Since the Big Ten had 6 years left on its TV deal at that time and because of the costs to upstart the Big Ten Network. Nebraska agreed to take less than a full share for 6 years to pay the rest of the conference it's share to buy into the BTN equally. The other 11 teams wanted Nebraska to pay those same costs.

Thus, when the conference added Rutgers and Maryland in 2012 the conference imposed the same deal on those 2 to be fair to Nebraska.

I thought the Maryland deal was substantially better than the Rutgers' deal.

 

[HtownOrange]

I do not follow the program so I have no idea, but has Tulane given any indication that they are committed to "big-time" athletics?

They just built an on campus stadium. Also, they are in the AAC, which is an upward climb. They best [art is that they are in NOLA, the second best part is that they are in Louisiana (great recruiting), the third part is that Tulane is academically above most SEC schools (which is why they left the SEC many moons ago). And, did I mention NOLA?

 

[TexanMark]

I think that goes out the window now. The pressure is on to expand. Keep in mind, Houston used to be in a league with Texas, TCU and Tech who used Houston as a recruiting base. It wasn't a problem then. I think it's overblown by us fans now.

I think we might see a new wave...the ACC if it isn't ready could be stuck with a 2nd tiered AAC team like Temple. The Big12 a will assuredly extend their GOR if they land a better TV contract.

 

[Toga]

They just built an on campus stadium. Also, they are in the AAC, which is an upward climb. They best [art is that they are in NOLA, the second best part is that they are in Louisiana (great recruiting), the third part is that Tulane is academically above most SEC schools (which is why they left the SEC many moons ago). And, did I mention NOLA?

All true but I remember their 12 fans in the stands when we played down there.

 

[HtownOrange]

What the Big XII is actually trying to do is the following. Get ESPN/Fox to talk extension with 10 members right now at the same price they are paying the conference currently.

The Big XII has an expansion clause in their current agreement that ESPN/Fox would pay the conference an additional 250 million for every school up to 4 that the conference adds. That money wouldn't be for good schools either it would come from American schools. People might ask why would the Big XII try to leverage its TV partners to pay an extra 500 million dollars when th conference would be watering down the product.

Well the answer is ESPN pays peanuts for the American TV rights. They pay about 50million dollars a year for the entire conference. The Big XII adding Cincinnati and another school would cost ESPN and Fox an extra 250 million dollars to add a mediocre TV draw.

Thus, the Big XII is bluffing now they will expand to try and get ESPN and Fox to extend their current deal where the networks are paying the 10 team conference a deal as if their were 12 teams.

I think the actual amount is equal share increase for each new team (though the conference can divide it how they please). Ex: if the payout this season is $20MM/team, then the payout would be $200MM with 10 teams, $240MM with 12 teams and $280MM with 14 teams. The total value may have been worth up to $250MM/team had they added teams at the beginning of the contract.

 

[KaiserUEO]

Greed and envy.

Pretty much everything about conference alignment boils down to greed and envy.

speaking of greed...

half this site owes me $$, for I called this shot (bevo expansion) and everyone told me I was raving lunatic.

 

[N.Y. Orangeman]

I think we might see a new wave...the ACC if it isn't ready could be stuck with a 2nd tiered AAC team like Temple. The Big12 a will assuredly extend their GOR if they land a better TV contract.

If you were UT or OU, why would you want to extend your GOR?

 

[HtownOrange]

All true but I remember their 12 fans in the stands when we played down there.

I think it was 13, they were unlucky and lost. Seriously, one reason they built on campus is to get students to games. Regardless, UT, OU and a few other teams would bring enough fans and just being in NOLA brings out the travelers (like we did!) because it makes for a great weekend getaway. The Louisiana recruiting would also be a prize. Staking a claim in SEC territory wouldn't hurt, either.

 

[Alsacs]

I think the actual amount is equal share increase for each new team (though the conference can divide it how they please). Ex: if the payout this season is $20MM/team, then the payout would be $200MM with 10 teams, $240MM with 12 teams and $280MM with 14 teams. The total value may have been worth up to $250MM/team had they added teams at the beginning of the contract.

Big 12 could earn an additional $1 billion through expansion

 

[Deano]

Andy KatzESPN Senior Writer

If UConn found a home for football, the Big East would seriously consider the Huskies for all other sports, according to a source with knowledge. The Big East would be a natural fit. So far the 10-team Big East only has all sports members, but doesn't offer Division I (FBS) football. UConn is in all sports in the AAC. If given the choice, the Huskies would want to be in the Big 12 in all sports. But the chances that offer ever comes is still too hard to predict now.