Bracketology with Joe Lunardi

[jordoo]

Syracuse lost to Le Moyne College before the 2009-2010 season and I wouldn't claim they were better. I typically think Bo Ryan's squads aren't good enough to win in March, but this year's team for Wisconsin looks legit. The Badgers they don't have a deep bench, but their resume thus far is the most impressive in college basketball.

They have a bunch of quality wins no doubt about it. I simply cannot stand watching them play much like ND and that burn offense. Wisci plays a stay infront of you defense that really makes teams that cannot shoot struggle. That said I don't think they are particularly great offensively player for player but they execute well and shoot well as a team which is rare in college bball. They may not have the guns to beat an elite team In the tourney but they are going to beat most good teams. Remember our game against tehm last time we played them in the tourney? They just couldn't really stop our guards. I remember Dion, Scoop and Brandon just having their way although they also played very well and shot lights out.

 

[cusetown1]

Syracuse lost to Le Moyne College before the 2009-2010 season and I wouldn't claim they were better. I typically think Bo Ryan's squads aren't good enough to win in March, but this year's team for Wisconsin looks legit. The Badgers they don't have a deep bench, but their resume thus far is the most impressive in college basketball.

They got blown out at least we kept it close against Lemoyne.

 

[Alsacs]

They have a bunch of quality wins no doubt about it. I simply cannot stand watching them play much like ND and that burn offense. Wisci plays a stay infront of you defense that really makes teams that cannot shoot struggle. That said I don't think they are particularly great offensively player for player but they execute well and shoot well as a team which is rare in college bball. They may not have the guns to beat an elite team In the tourney but they are going to beat most good teams. Remember our game against tehm last time we played them in the tourney? They just couldn't really stop our guards. I remember Dion, Scoop and Brandon just having their way although they also played very well and shot lights out.

I respectfully disagree, I have watched Wisconsin play Florida, Marquette, Virginia they only played slow against UVA and that is because of UVA dictating tempo and Wisconsin being comfortable with that tempo and them having a 6-11 point lead the whole time. Wisconsin this year is way more up tempo offensively and they have guys who can score their problem is they don't have depth and if they got foul trouble would be in a bind against a good team. When we beat them in 2011 they played the zone as best as anybody we had played that year, and made like 14 3's on us. I agree on offensively Dion couldn't be stopped and if we gave him the ball each time would have been able to get to the hole at will, but Wisconsin this year is a little more athletic, and still rebounds well. I think they are Michigan State's biggest contender for the B1G regular season title.

 

[QManCuse]

Didn't realize UConn was eligible for the tournament. Thought they were on like 5 yrs. academic probation. If not, they should be.

 

[jncuse]

This is pretty funny. If you are going by what has happened so far and what the resume's actually are how is Nova not a 1 seed. .

That is the issue I sometimes have with these "as of now" approaches. I have no problem with them from a theoretical standpoint, but there is always two problems:

1) Too little data to separate early on.
2) Bias given to those who they think will do well vs who has done better. Sort of a half assed way of doing it. They don't really want to punish teams who are likely to do quite well, and alternatively are conservative on teams that have surprised.

Not that Joe Lunardi is doing the bracket badly, but I find looking at an RPIforecast projected resume gives a different perspective of where a school may be tracking.


I just use RPIforecast to project where a team may be tracking- it takes year to date performance and puts in a 30 game picture that is similar to resumes on Selection sunday. The big difference with this approach is 1) your conference weighs more heavily since it projects a conference record, and the strength of your conference matters (RPI, top 50 record), and 2) One or two losses right not a big deal if your Sagarin is good.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

Of course the limitation is that it uses Sagarin going forward based on what you have done so far. Sagarin has no bias, but if you disagree with the number it spits out, you will disagree with the projected resume. I am not sure why we are #19 in Sagarin's predictor. There will be some strange things but its a quick reference and like any model need to consider limitations.

 

[Trueblue25]

SU wins it all.

 

[jncuse]

Re. Wisconsin

There tempo is still relatively slow at 316 out of 351 per KenPom. Interestingly, Syracuse adjusted tempo is at 309 per KenPom which is as low a ranking as I remember.

I think Syracuse in some of their cupcake games lets the opponent suck a lot of time off the clock. It should move up.

 

[jncuse]

Syracuse lost to Le Moyne College before the 2009-2010 season and I wouldn't claim they were better. I typically think Bo Ryan's squads aren't good enough to win in March, but this year's team for Wisconsin looks legit. The Badgers they don't have a deep bench, but their resume thus far is the most impressive in college basketball.

Give Carleton some credit. They would have a shot at an large / NIT this year.

 

[kirbivore]

I would love to see Nova take a Raleigh spot and send one the tobacco road chosen ones to San Diego or Spokane.

 

[SaltLakeOrange]

That's just crazy talk

Agreed! Let someone else beat up AZ or NC. Of the others, Dayton is the only school that gives me any pause. But, it's only Mid December. We are going to get better...They should all be crapping in their pants about the possibility of playing us!!!!!

 

[SaltLakeOrange]

They got blown out at least we kept it close against Lemoyne.

The Lemoyne game was an exhibiting where JB wanted to teach the team a lesson about defense (which was, YOU CAN'T PLAY M2M and WIN)...No comparison!

 

[bnoro]

UNC is going to be a huge wild card this year. They have 3 great signature OOC wins (@MSU, UL, UK) and 2 bad losses (@UAB, Belmont). I'm very interested to see what happens with them.

 

[jordoo]

I respectfully disagree, I have watched Wisconsin play Florida, Marquette, Virginia they only played slow against UVA and that is because of UVA dictating tempo and Wisconsin being comfortable with that tempo and them having a 6-11 point lead the whole time. Wisconsin this year is way more up tempo offensively and they have guys who can score their problem is they don't have depth and if they got foul trouble would be in a bind against a good team. When we beat them in 2011 they played the zone as best as anybody we had played that year, and made like 14 3's on us. I agree on offensively Dion couldn't be stopped and if we gave him the ball each time would have been able to get to the hole at will, but Wisconsin this year is a little more athletic, and still rebounds well. I think they are Michigan State's biggest contender for the B1G regular season title.

I really only watched them twice this season and one was that defensive struggle against Virginia. Also I am biased against them because I have found Bo Ryan's style rather boring over the years. So I differ to you in this matter as you have obviously seen much more of them I will say though that I am not overly impressed with the B1G as a whole this season. Mich St. just doesn't seem all that dynamic offensively although they are big, deep and talented. OSU is another team that just doesn't scare you offensively. Stop Ross keep them out of transition and your good to go if you can score on them. You know my opinion of Wisci. I actually think Mich might be the best team when all is said and done if McGary can stay healthy and be a force.

 

[Dave85]

It's only December, but it's never too early for a little Bracktology. Here's the link to Joe Lunardi's projections: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

We're the #1 seed in the east with Michigan St. as the #2. Interesting possible sound/third round matchup with Michigan(8 seed).

It's huge to note that he has Maryland in all caps meaning he thinks they will get the automatic bid. He has them as the 12th seed in the South. I don't think I've seem him give the auto bid to a team that wasn't near the top, especially this early in the season.

Switch Duke with Louisville. Parker is too good for Duke not to get a #1 seed.

 

[CusefanATL]

2 words

CAKE WALK

michigan/dayton is the best 8/9 game i think i have ever seen.

i want NOTHING to do with the winner of that.

 

[CusefanATL]

Ohio State as a 1 seed just makes laugh and wish we could be in the 2nd seed if they are the 1 seed. Their resume is 8 tomato cans, a mediocre Maryland team at home, and sloppy horrible game to watch @Marquette who isn't that much better than St. John's. Without looking at Ohio State's B1G schedule I wouldn't pick them to finish in the top 4. The top 4 B1G schools IMO are Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan then maybe Ohio State 5th.

If I was doing an S-Curve
1.Wisconsin best resume by far

by far?

 

[Dave85]

I would love to see Nova take a Raleigh spot and send one the tobacco road chosen ones to San Diego or Spokane.

Does anyone else remember the year when we played on a Sunday, then flew, and then we played the first game on a Thursday where the other team had an extra day of rest? What year was that? What pure BS that was!

 

[Alsacs]

by far?

Neutral court wins over St. John's St. Louis, West Virginia
road wins over UW-Green Bay, Virginia
home wins over Florida, Marquette.


Find me a better resume than that thus far?

I don't like Wisconsin and find Bo Ryan's playing style boring, but this season they look like the real deal only problem I see for them is lack of depth, but they only play Michigan State and Ohio State 1 time during conference play and both are at home. I thin Wisconsin ends up winning the B1G regular season title because of their easier conference schedule.

 

[Alsacs]

I really only watched them twice this season and one was that defensive struggle against Virginia. Also I am biased against them because I have found Bo Ryan's style rather boring over the years. So I differ to you in this matter as you have obviously seen much more of them I will say though that I am not overly impressed with the B1G as a whole this season. Mich St. just doesn't seem all that dynamic offensively although they are big, deep and talented. OSU is another team that just doesn't scare you offensively. Stop Ross keep them out of transition and your good to go if you can score on them. You know my opinion of Wisci. I actually think Mich might be the best team when all is said and done if McGary can stay healthy and be a force.

The Virginia game was ugly, and was the stereotypical Wisconsin game, but UVA plays a similar style with Tony Bennett and they just got behind Wisconsin by 6 to 12 practically the whole game, and Wisconsin was comfortably with the slow tempo with that. This season they have shooters, and are a little more athletically, but they only really go 6 or 7 deep then have a huge drop off. If they got foul trouble they could lose games, but I think they will win the B1G this season because they only play Michigan State 1 time at home.

 

[Knicks411]

Michigan/Dayton as #8/9 seeds is crazy. Obviously has SU as the last #1 being given an insane draw in the 2nd round while all the other #1's get very beatable teams. But I won't lose any sleep over it. The concept of doing these brackets before February is ridiculous.

He had SU as his third #1 I believe, saw it on twitter.

Especvially at this point in the year I look less at the matchups and more at the locations. We need to keep on the Buffalo/MSG track

 

[OttoMets]

Does anyone else remember the year when we played on a Sunday, then flew, and then we played the first game on a Thursday where the other team had an extra day of rest? What year was that? What pure BS that was!

Butler.

Fly out to Salt Lake after a Sunday game and play a football team on Thursday. Super. Thanks, guys.

 

[Dave85]

Butler.

Fly out to Salt Lake after a Sunday game and play a football team on Thursday. Super. Thanks, guys.

I think you meant Basketball. That was really lame. I don't remember ever that a winning team on Sunday ended up playing again on a Thursday ever in all the years I've been watching the tournament. Total BS!

 

[Knicks411]

I think you meant Basketball. That was really lame. I don't remember ever that a winning team on Sunday ended up playing again on a Thursday ever in all the years I've been watching the tournament. Total BS!

My guess is with the pod system it has to happen a decent amount of time.

Last year Indiana and Miami both played Sunday and then Thursday. (So we benefited from it there). Ohio State and La Salle did as well

 

[Marsh01]

I think you meant Basketball. That was really lame. I don't remember ever that a winning team on Sunday ended up playing again on a Thursday ever in all the years I've been watching the tournament. Total BS!

The way the game was called he most certainly meant football

 

[Dave85]

My guess is with the pod system it has to happen a decent amount of time.

Last year Indiana and Miami both played Sunday and then Thursday. (So we benefited from it there). Ohio State and La Salle did as well

I guess I stand corrected. It just seemed wrong when it was done to us and the other team had an full extra day of rest.