Bryce and Manny...

OrangeDW

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this contract will never be worth it. 13 years?
As a Dodger fan who has seen his team go 30 years without a World Series title, and fall short in the series twice in a row now...I feel like I’d be willing to completely toss away a number of seasons in exchange for a title, at this point.

Like, if we win it all next year...they’ll have a solid 5 year grace period where I won’t question anything or get mad at anything.

However, I’m not sure that this is the best route to a title. You can have the best player in the league on your team and still be a nonfactor. Very unlikely this deal works out IMO. And I’m glad the Dodgers didn’t give him that kind of deal.
 

SUintheVille

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He'll be able to afford a nice expensive wheel chair those last 3 years with 10 per.

Salaries are so out of hand, absolutely nuts.
 

dasher

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As a Dodger fan who has seen his team go 30 years without a World Series title, and fall short in the series twice in a row now...I feel like I’d be willing to completely toss away a number of seasons in exchange for a title, at this point.

Like, if we win it all next year...they’ll have a solid 5 year grace period where I won’t question anything or get mad at anything.

However, I’m not sure that this is the best route to a title. You can have the best player in the league on your team and still be a nonfactor. Very unlikely this deal works out IMO. And I’m glad the Dodgers didn’t give him that kind of deal.
I feel your pain. As a long suffering Boston fan...
 

moqui

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I can’t see any way where this ends well.

With a 10 year contract, I’d be worried that the last 3-4 years will be dicey. Here, worst case scenario, you could be looking at 7-8 years where he’s a waste of money?

I’d be concerned about his personality in Philly too. He seems like a douche. I predict by the time he’s 32-33, they’ll want to run him out of town.
if i was a gm, i would only do it if i could front load it
3 years $45
3 years @ $35
4 years @$22.5
give him an opt out before each de-escalation phase
he gets his 10 year guarantee of $330, the team gets a little relief in the out years. and he gets a chance to opt out if he feels he is still worth more after 6.

that being said, i think the bidding for mike trout now begins at 12/$350
 

Alsacs

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if i was a gm, i would only do it if i could front load it
3 years $45
3 years @ $35
4 years @$22.5
give him an opt out before each de-escalation phase
he gets his 10 year guarantee of $330, the team gets a little relief in the out years. and he gets a chance to opt out if he feels he is still worth more after 6.

that being said, i think the bidding for mike trout now begins at 12/$350
Mike Trout will be 29 going on 30 when he becomes a FA after the 2020 season.
He isn’t going to get a 10 year contract.
Harper/Machado were 26 this offseason.
Trout took the 6-144 bridge contract so he won’t be entering FA without big money.
I see Trout getting 6-240 or 7-250.
 

moqui

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Mike Trout will be 29 going on 30 when he becomes a FA after the 2020 season.
He isn’t going to get a 10 year contract.
Harper/Machado were 26 this offseason.
Trout took the 6-144 bridge contract so he won’t be entering FA without big money.
I see Trout getting 6-240 or 7-250.
four different baseball organizations have signed
mike stanton through his age 38 season
bryce harper through his age 39 season
albert pujols through his age 41 season
alex rodriguez through his age 42 season

but you don't think someone will sign mike trout - the undisputed greatest player of his generation - beyond his age 35 season?

ok, dude.
 

bpo57

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Without looking at lineups, I think they had better protection in the line up. Plus, they never had the scrutiny that Arod had.
ARod brought a lot of scrutiny upon himself. Boston is a tough market to perform in. Just as tough as NY. Sheffield, Texiera, Jeter, Cano, Damon, Posada, Matsui. Plenty of firepower up and down the lineup.
 

Alsacs

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four different baseball organizations have signed
mike stanton through his age 38 season
bryce harper through his age 39 season
albert pujols through his age 41 season
alex rodriguez through his age 42 season

but you don't think someone will sign mike trout - the undisputed greatest player of his generation - beyond his age 35 season?

ok, dude.
The Pujols contract is universally panned as stupid.
A-Rod’s contract was dumb and nobody but the Yankees give it to him in 2007. His MVP that year got him the deal.
Harper was 26 and will be signed thru 39.

Baseball teams aren’t giving stupid contracts anymore.
Nolan Arenado just signed thru his age 36.
Trout already got a huge deal. He isn’t going to get a 8-10 year contract when he will be 30 entering FA.
He will get a huge AAV with a 6-7 year contract.
 

bpo57

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I feel like they were bidding against themselves these last few days. Boras knew the Phils were desparate, and found a couple of willing co-conspirators to bid them up.

Having said that, the Phils have only won a couple of WS. At my age, I'd be thankful for one or two more, and this deal makes it more likely that it will happen.
I hear ya but Philly will or won't win a WS based upon the performance of their pitchers. I don't think Harper makes that big of a difference imo.
 

bpo57

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The Pujols contract is universally panned as stupid.
A-Rod’s contract was dumb and nobody but the Yankees give it to him in 2007. His MVP that year got him the deal.
Harper was 26 and will be signed thru 39.

Baseball teams aren’t giving stupid contracts anymore.
Nolan Arenado just signed thru his age 36.
Trout already got a huge deal. He isn’t going to get a 8-10 year contract when he will be 30 entering FA.
He will get a huge AAV with a 6-7 year contract.
Based upon what just happened with Machado and Harper I'd have to disagree. He's a MUCH better player than those two plus he's 10x the class act. That will be one helluva a bidding war.
 

Alsacs

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Based upon what just happened with Machado and Harper I'd have to disagree. He's a MUCH better player than those two plus he's 10x the class act. That will be one helluva a bidding war.
Age matters. If Trout was becoming a FA at 26 he gets 12/13 yrs over 400 million.
He already got 144 million to buy out two of his FA years. It was smart for him and the Angels.
FA now is about your age becoming a FA to determine the years you will get.
Teams are using analytics to realize paying for years over 36 is stupid.
Harper got 13-330 to specifically beat Stanton.
He turned down an AAV of 30 million from the Nationals 10-300 offer for 25.4 for the Phillies offer.
Trout isn’t going to get the years. He is more likely to get closer to an AAV of 40 million per season than a 10 year 350 million dollar contract.
 

donniesyracuse

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Stupid Money is Smart Money: A Tale of Bryce Harper

“ZiPS projects Harper to be worth approximately $289 million over the course of his contract, with almost all that value over the first ten years of the deal. Given that the Phillies are a competitive team, likely matching their best seasons with Harper’s prime, ten years, $330 million would be a perfectly reasonable move for the Phillies to make. And if ten years, $330 million is a reasonable contract, then $330 million with Harper throwing in three additional years as a gratuity certainly would be.”
 

Chip

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It’s clear all that Harper cares about was topping the Stanton contract and he did.
13-325 for Stanton and Harper got 13-330 million.
Yep. Where he lives, how miserable the fans might be to him, no concern.

He wanted something that stood out. And he got it.

Trout won’t get 13 years. He’ll be 29 at FA time.
 

bpo57

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Age matters. If Trout was becoming a FA at 26 he gets 12/13 yrs over 400 million.
He already got 144 million to buy out two of his FA years. It was smart for him and the Angels.
FA now is about your age becoming a FA to determine the years you will get.
Teams are using analytics to realize paying for years over 36 is stupid.
Harper got 13-330 to specifically beat Stanton.
He turned down an AAV of 30 million from the Nationals 10-300 offer for 25.4 for the Phillies offer.
Trout isn’t going to get the years. He is more likely to get closer to an AAV of 40 million per season than a 10 year 350 million dollar contract.
Not saying Trout will get 13 years but he'll easily get 10 years and not the 7 you predict.

These teams know that Machado and Harper are not going to be productive in the last couple years of their deal. For them it's the price of admission. Same will hold for Trout. Unlike Machado and Harper there will be a bidding frenzy for Trout. The other two are not in his league, regardless of age.
 

bpo57

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Yep. Where he lives, how miserable the fans might be to him, no concern.

He wanted something that stood out. And he got it.

Trout won’t get 13 years. He’ll be 29 at FA time.
As I stated above, the Phillies know that Harper will not be productive in his 11th through 13th years. It's the price of admission. Hell he probably won't even be playing baseball by that time. Same will happen with Trout. At even higher dollars. Trout v Harper? Not even close.
 

bpo57

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Stupid Money is Smart Money: A Tale of Bryce Harper

“ZiPS projects Harper to be worth approximately $289 million over the course of his contract, with almost all that value over the first ten years of the deal. Given that the Phillies are a competitive team, likely matching their best seasons with Harper’s prime, ten years, $330 million would be a perfectly reasonable move for the Phillies to make. And if ten years, $330 million is a reasonable contract, then $330 million with Harper throwing in three additional years as a gratuity certainly would be.”
As long as the Red Sox don't use ZIPS I'm good.

Harper has finished in the top ten in MVP voting just once in his career. Has a career OPS of .900. Hit .249 last year and struck out 169 times. Nearly half his career he's been unable to play more than 2/3 of his team's games. If Harper is worth that much $$ then Trout has to got to be worth 30-40% more than Harper.
 

Bayside44

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The Pujols contract is universally panned as stupid.
A-Rod’s contract was dumb and nobody but the Yankees give it to him in 2007. His MVP that year got him the deal.
Harper was 26 and will be signed thru 39.

Baseball teams aren’t giving stupid contracts anymore.
Nolan Arenado just signed thru his age 36.
Trout already got a huge deal. He isn’t going to get a 8-10 year contract when he will be 30 entering FA.
He will get a huge AAV with a 6-7 year contract.

A baseball time arguably gave a stupid contract today. They locked a guy in for 13 years, seemingly because one owner needed to do something.
 

chugg21

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A baseball time arguably gave a stupid contract today. They locked a guy in for 13 years, seemingly because one owner needed to do something.
Value of the franchise is going to go up by more than his aav over the next 13 years so who can really say if its dumb or not. We're the dummies funding all this crap.
 

Alsacs

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A baseball time arguably gave a stupid contract today. They locked a guy in for 13 years, seemingly because one owner needed to do something.
The 13 years were for AAV being lower and allowing the Phillies more flexibility towards the luxury tax.
13-330 is 25.4 million
10-330 is 33 million
The Phillies get 7.6 million a year in luxury tax relief.
Plus the guy is 26 so he has his last year contract in his career.

Pujols was 31 when he got his 10 year contract. That was a stupid contract.
Pujols hasn’t been close to worth the 10 year 275 million he got from the Angels. He has been on a constant decline and was paid for past performance not his future.

Harper getting 13 years at 26 years old makes a lot more sense.
Pujols will be 41 when his contract expires.
Harper will be 39.

Age is the most important thing when factoring in the length of these contracts.
Trout will be 30 he is way more likely to get 7-280 million than 10 years unless he takes a lower AAV for the 10 years./
 

donniesyracuse

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MLB Spent Less On Player Salaries Despite Record Revenues In 2018

"...gross revenues for MLB in 2018 were $10.3 billion."

"Last year, the league spent 54.2% of revenues on player compensation, the second-lowest amount dating back to 2010, according to industry sources who wish to remain anonymous. That compensation included not only the big-league salaries that fans have focused on but also players in Minor League Baseball, for which MLB pays. The 54% of total revenues was a drop of nearly 4% from 2017, based on data provided from sources. The last time that the percentage of player salary-to-revenues dropped more than that was in 2012, when the decline was over 6%. In a downward trend over several years, the last time that the percentage of player compensation compared with total revenue rose year-over-year was 2015 (up 4.2%)."

"The percentage of revenue that major league players have garnered as compensation compared with revenues has fluctuated between 48% and 52% for the last 15 years."
 

chugg21

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The 13 years were for AAV being lower and allowing the Phillies more flexibility towards the luxury tax.
13-330 is 25.4 million
10-330 is 33 million
The Phillies get 7.6 million a year in luxury tax relief.
Plus the guy is 26 so he has his last year contract in his career.

Pujols was 31 when he got his 10 year contract. That was a stupid contract.
Pujols hasn’t been close to worth the 10 year 275 million he got from the Angels. He has been on a constant decline and was paid for past performance not his future.

Harper getting 13 years at 26 years old makes a lot more sense.
Pujols will be 41 when his contract expires.
Harper will be 39.

Age is the most important thing when factoring in the length of these contracts.
Trout will be 30 he is way more likely to get 7-280 million than 10 years unless he takes a lower AAV for the 10 years./
Trout can decide whatever he wants. If he wants 10 then he'll get 10. Shorter contracts may apply to FA in general but there is 0 evidence to support you at all that it applies to the elite guys. In the past week Machado got 10, Arenado got 8+1, Bryce got 13. But you think Trout will be forced to accept 7? Not unless thats what he wants to do and thats unlikely.
 

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