Bubble Tracker week of February 24

jncuse

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Clemson has replaced Syracuse as the ACC long shot to work their way into the tourney.

Still only 15 -13, but they beat Duke, Florida St, Louisville.

If they can close out their next two games (the Tech's) , and win at least two in the ACC including one more Q1 win they may be getting close, although suspect that would not be enough.
 

jncuse

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1583112678529.png


4th straight win for Stanford who has rose from about 21% at the start of the streak to 54% before this game.
Stanford was last team in before this game. Obviously a Q1 win will be helpful, but still not a lock, as they two road games the next week

There NET will be around 27-30 after this game and 5 Q1 wins.

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Cincy was at 73% entering today, second last in per the matrix.
A Q1 road loss is not going to kill you, but in the American you don't have many separators either.

If I was doing a bracket they would be out on mine. I would have Richmond, UCLA and NC St above them.
2-6 in Q1 is not good
6-0 in Q2 is very good, but it gets offset by 4 Q3 losses which is really bad.
 

jdubs30

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View attachment 177389

4th straight win for Stanford who has rose from about 21% at the start of the streak to 54% before this game.
Stanford was last team in before this game. Obviously a Q1 win will be helpful, but still not a lock, as they two road games the next week

There NET will be around 27-30 after this game and 5 Q1 wins.

View attachment 177390

Cincy was at 73% entering today, second last in per the matrix.
A Q1 road loss is not going to kill you, but in the American you don't have many separators either.

If I was doing a bracket they would be out on mine. I would have Richmond, UCLA and NC St above them.
2-6 in Q1 is not good
6-0 in Q2 is very good, but it gets offset by 4 Q3 losses which is really bad.
AAC tournament could be interesting. They could end up with 4 teams or 1
 

jncuse

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1583113306011.png


The last two weeks have been a disaster for the Hoyas as they have lost 4 in a row, including a crushing loss at Depaul. Even if none are Q3 losses you can't go 15-14.
On Monday February 17th they were in on 71% of the brackets. They fell to 15% at the beginning of this week, and I expect them to be 0% start of next week.

I am sure not many tears are getting shed here for the Hoyas.

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With a bunch of Power 6 schools making a run the past few weeks (UCLA, Stanford, Providence, Texas) this was a touch loss for Rhode Island.

They were 94% in at the beginning of this week... now down to 91% starting today and 5th last in. Expect them to be in the 60% range at the beginning of next week.

This loss does not crush them, but it does take away any margin for error.

I still prefer them over a team like Cincy.
 

jncuse

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1583113938450.png


A very solid Q2 road win for Wichita St. Nothing spectacular for Wichita St this week, but starting at 97% they just held serve and reduced the time to hold on.

But to show you how good the bubble has been this week relatively, they fell from 97% in to 92% in after winning earlier this week. This game should raise them up a few points.

They need to take one of the games against Memphis and Tulsa this week. Assuming they then do nothing stupid (bad loss) in the American they would probably be OK.
 

jncuse

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If you asked me tomorrow who my last 4 in and first 4 out (not the matrix) I think they would be as following. Although this is not a deep dive either. And usually where I am off is on mid majors, so given where I usually make my one or two in/out mistakes on Selection Sunday, I was tempted not to put Utah St in. But Rutgers just has that road win issue that is really hurting them.

Last 4 In:
Rhode Island
Richmond
UCLA
Utah St

First 4 Out
Rutgers
Cincinnati
NC St
Texas

The more I look at Rutgers, I think there is just too much negative... that is one big negative - just one road win! No bubble team ever got in with less than 3 I beleive.

3 Q1 wins is OK, but 3-9 overall is not.
7-10 in Q1+Q2 is OK
35 NET is OK
All OK, but it can't overcome the road wins.
 

jncuse

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AAC tournament could be interesting. They could end up with 4 teams or 1

It's possible. The American is always one of those bubble buster candidates -- I have to think Houston, Cincy, Wichita St can take care of that.

I think they end up with 2. I suspect Either Cincy or Wichita St will lock it up by getting a win against one of the other in the American tournament.

Wichita St has done nothing really bad. But their Q1 win profile is dreadful (UConn, OKlahoma St)
 

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