Bubble Watch 2017

[jncuse]

I used the Bracket Matrix as a proxy for who is in and who is out "as of now".

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

You may note two things:
1) My last 4 in / last 4 out is not a direct match to the matrix. The matrix uses a rolling week of submissions. I only tabulated the last 4 in/out based on the submissions in the past day as those are more relevant.
2) The matrix is as of yesterday, but the data is as of now. It's impossible to match up everything, but my main purpose below will still be met.

What I am trying to show is what a bubble profile looks like right now, and where we are at. So here is the chart

I included the KP rating as the committee made announced it will roll off RPI next year and also looking at analytic ratings right now.

A few observations:

1) Our warts are abundantly clear when we compare to other teams and we are welll behind right now.
- No road or neutral wins
- 3 Sub 100 Losses. No one else has above 1
- Bad RPI

2) In terms of quality wins and top 100 wins, we are even as of now. But the only way we make it in is if we are clearly ahead of most of the bubble in this important indicator by the time selection comes around. AND WE DO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO GET MORE QUALITY. But We really do have to take 2 out of 3 at home vs Duke, Louisville and Virginia to likely have a chance to cover the warts.

I still think 11-7 will come up with a mix of wins that at least gives us a few road wins, and more quality than the rest. Can we get there, I don't know.

3) CLEMSON - I have seen a few people criticize the fact they are in, but in reality their numbers hold up quite well for the entire body of work despite the recent 6 game losing streak.

 

[cuseattle]

I used the Bracket Matrix as a proxy for who is in and who is out "as of now".

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

You may note two things:
1) My last 4 in / last 4 out is not a direct match to the matrix. The matrix uses a rolling week of submissions. I only tabulated the last 4 in/out based on the submissions in the past day as those are more relevant.
2) The matrix is as of yesterday, but the data is as of now. It's impossible to match up everything, but my main purpose below will still be met.

What I am trying to show is what a bubble profile looks like right now, and where we are at. So here is the chart

View attachment 87897

I included the KP rating as the committee made announced it will roll off RPI next year and also looking at analytic ratings right now.

A few observations:

1) Our warts are abundantly clear when we compare to other teams and we are welll behind right now.
- No road or neutral wins
- 3 Sub 100 Losses. No one else has above 1
- Bad RPI

2) In terms of quality wins and top 100 wins, we are even as of now. But the only way we make it in is if we are clearly ahead of most of the bubble in this important indicator by the time selection comes around. AND WE DO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO GET MORE QUALITY. But We really do have to take 2 out of 3 at home vs Duke, Louisville and Virginia to likely have a chance to cover the warts.

I still think 11-7 will come up with a mix of wins that at least gives us a few road wins, and more quality than the rest. Can we get there, I don't know.

3) CLEMSON - I have seen a few people criticize the fact they are in, but in reality their numbers hold up quite well for the entire body of work despite the recent 6 game losing streak.

Always look forward to these.

 

[jncuse]

Some other data

Our projected RPI by victory total

At least at 11-7 our RPI becomes respectable at 57.


Can the bad losses turn?
Sub 100 RPI is a bad loss, but I think once it gets below 150 it looks really bad. Most P5 teams will have a loss on the road to a low 100 team in conference by season's end.

Boston College - Need to go 5-5 to get below RPI 150
UConn - Need to go 6-3 to get below 100, need to go 3-5 to stay below 150
St. John's - Need to go 6-3 to get below 100, need to go 3-6 to stay below 150.
Georgetown - Need to go 2-7 to stay below 100

Future top 50 wins opportunities?
This is ACC team's expected RPI's at the end of the season. RPI forecast uses Sagarin to project future results.

This was before today's results, so I am sure Clemson is now projected top 50, but Wake may no longer be. It also does not include Syracuse and Georgia Tech win's today, so they are both top 100 now.


It's hard to get a bad loss in the ACC. Basically any win is a top 100 win. We were lucky to play 5 of those 7 teams at home this year. We need to capitalize.

 

[jncuse]

Alsacs said in another thread we need to win at NC St and beat Virginia to be able to be legit on the bubble "as of now". I think that is a pretty fair assessment.

NC St is seen by some as a tourney team, so a road win over them would be significant.

 

[jncuse]

A little too early to show matchups - to many moving parts. The only thing I can say though is cheer for the P5+1 bottom feeders in any game.

 

[Briancuse]

Alsacs said in another thread we need to win at NC St and beat Virginia to be able to be legit on the bubble "as of now". I think that is a pretty fair assessment.

NC St is seen by some as a tourney team, so a road win over them would be significant.

I think of the Nc State,Pitt,Clemson road games,we need to win two of them.

 

[MSOrange]

I used the Bracket Matrix as a proxy for who is in and who is out "as of now".

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

You may note two things:
1) My last 4 in / last 4 out is not a direct match to the matrix. The matrix uses a rolling week of submissions. I only tabulated the last 4 in/out based on the submissions in the past day as those are more relevant.
2) The matrix is as of yesterday, but the data is as of now. It's impossible to match up everything, but my main purpose below will still be met.

What I am trying to show is what a bubble profile looks like right now, and where we are at. So here is the chart

View attachment 87897

I included the KP rating as the committee made announced it will roll off RPI next year and also looking at analytic ratings right now.

A few observations:

1) Our warts are abundantly clear when we compare to other teams and we are welll behind right now.
- No road or neutral wins
- 3 Sub 100 Losses. No one else has above 1
- Bad RPI

2) In terms of quality wins and top 100 wins, we are even as of now. But the only way we make it in is if we are clearly ahead of most of the bubble in this important indicator by the time selection comes around. AND WE DO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO GET MORE QUALITY. But We really do have to take 2 out of 3 at home vs Duke, Louisville and Virginia to likely have a chance to cover the warts.

I still think 11-7 will come up with a mix of wins that at least gives us a few road wins, and more quality than the rest. Can we get there, I don't know.

3) CLEMSON - I have seen a few people criticize the fact they are in, but in reality their numbers hold up quite well for the entire body of work despite the recent 6 game losing streak.

Love your analysis and the effort you put into it. One minor correction - I think it should say First 4 out instead of Last 4 out.

 

[benjams77]

Alsacs said in another thread we need to win at NC St and beat Virginia to be able to be legit on the bubble "as of now". I think that is a pretty fair assessment.

NC St is seen by some as a tourney team, so a road win over them would be significant.

I think we can have 3 losses rest of ACC play to have a chance...11-7...Basically We need to split with Louisville, split between Virginia and Duke, and we can lose 1 other conference game somewhere...and we need to win 3 of of the 5 road games..Cannot lose at Pitt...Bubble is very weak and ACC is far and away the best conference which will reward us if we finish top 6.

I have a different thought than what the media gives to all the general fans every year. There is the thought of eye test and understanding actual circumstance rather that just numbers and analytics...Well last year I thought the Gtwon and st johns losses would be looked at beyond records because their old rivals...That changes the dynamic...I believe the same this year for our scheduling...For all the years we get criticized for scheduling, we now schedule 3 rivals who happen to suck rather than scheduling irrelevant games against long beach state and Oakland...I think the committee sees this as a step up in who we play...The Big East now is still considered one of the best conferences and we play 2 of them Non conf and play traditional power UCONN...Now that being said we still needed to win one of those games but we challenged ourselves

 

[upperdeck]

If you go down the selection process right now and try to find bids i find 59 teams before i get to the ACC, that leaves 9 for them , Brackatology has 10 in right now. But we control our destiny with Clemson.

honestly if we beat Pitt/clem/nc st/Gt and they put them in we end up with like 10+ wins against tourney teams and we wont get left out or else us winning knocks them out.

metrics all you want, if we get to 10 wins they will be hard pressed to not put us in.

they will also have to explain taking 7 of 10 Big 12 teams in a league with only 3 teams ranked and 10 of 15 ACC teams in a far tougher conference.

Even now if you go last 4 in type stuff there is no way that the committee would have Pitt in over us when we are 4 games clear and win the h2h.. the eyeball stuff still has some relevance. we are clearly in the bubble of 10-15 with a shot.

 

[upperdeck]

gtown with 2 top top 20 wins this week changes how that loss looks.

 

[jncuse]

I think of the Nc State,Pitt,Clemson road games,we need to win two of them.

Agreed. I still have 11 as the goal, so we need to win at least 2 road games just to get to that number. Even 10, we need a couple road wins to get there as I don't expect to sweep all 3 good teams.

I am confident about our chances with 11 wins -- but I still am extremely iffy about getting those 11 wins. This week could give us a big tell either way.

 

[jncuse]

I have a different thought than what the media gives to all the general fans every year. There is the thought of eye test and understanding actual circumstance rather that just numbers and analytics...Well last year I thought the Gtwon and st johns losses would be looked at beyond records because their old rivals...That changes the dynamic...I believe the same this year for our scheduling...For all the years we get criticized for scheduling, we now schedule 3 rivals who happen to suck rather than scheduling irrelevant games against long beach state and Oakland...I think the committee sees this as a step up in who we play...The Big East now is still considered one of the best conferences and we play 2 of them Non conf and play traditional power UCONN...Now that being said we still needed to win one of those games but we challenged ourselves

I don't think they will look at it at that level, but then again when they start to compare teams on the bubble that are so close they probably look at more "fluffy" stuff. So I will not totally dismiss your outside the box thinking. Sometimes I think with these bubble teams, it comes down to having the support of the most vocal or one of the most vocal committee members. If a commitee member is more vocal and convincing, his "fluffy" viewpoints probably help get a team in.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I don't think they will look at it at that level, but then again when they start to compare teams on the bubble that are so close they probably look at more "fluffy" stuff. So I will not totally dismiss your outside the box thinking. Sometimes I think with these bubble teams, it comes down to having the support of the most vocal or one of the most vocal committee members. If a commitee member is more vocal and convincing, his "fluffy" viewpoints probably help get a team in.

I think his point has some merit if one is comparing two bubble teams like you say. It's a fact that committee members are sent all over the country to watch games in person. I mean, from a negative Nancy standpoint, does it matter with how we have lost many of our games? The giving up, getting blown out many occassions, no life on the court, no idea what to do, etc.? Of course if we just keep winning then it's all good. Just curious of your opinon since you clearly follow the stuff WAY better than I do, the data/projections/resumes part that is. I mean if a committee member or two were in MSG or South Bend...oh boy.

 

[jncuse]

gtown with 2 top top 20 wins this week changes how that loss looks.

Georgetown had a very hard schedule. They have to go 2-7 the rest of the way to be a sub 100 RPI, so it's unlikely they are a bad loss.

If anything we need to be concerned that we are up against them on the bubble. This may be incorrect, but I always thought one thing that killed us in 2007 was that Drexel was right on the bubble line as well. And we lost to Drexel at home, so the committee put them ahead of us purely on a head to head basis.

Georgetown despite being 12-10, is building up a decent resume. They don't have any bad losses yet (sub 100) -- although losing to Providence and Arkansas St at home were blown chances that could cost them. But they have a nice list of wins that will help them Selection Sunday, including 3 potentially good road our neutral wins already.

Neutral Oregon
At Syracuse
At Butler
Home Creighton

Georgetown because of lack of bad losses and the quality road/neutral wins, could be on the bubble line if they finish at 17-14 entering the BET. You should see them pop up on some "As of Now" brackets this week, even at 12-10.

 

[orangemass]

A little too early to show matchups - to many moving parts. The only thing I can say though is cheer for the P5+1 bottom feeders in any game.

Syracuse is not beating Virginia.

 

[benjams77]

Syracuse is not beating Virginia.

I disagree...Another one of my theory's having watched alot of Syracuse ball like most of you is that for many many years it was a given we'd peak in Nov and December, always winning the pre season tourney we were in along with any OOC matchups...Then we'd hit the mid season funk in conference, losing to some teams we shouldn't. Lat year was the first I remember in quite some time other than the really good 2010 year that we peaked in the middle of the season, by winning 8 of 9 games with Duke win in their...which really got us in the tournament...I think this year could be similar to where we run of the next 4 games making 6 in a row...heading into the home game with Louisville...JB and the cuse always has a peak somewhere in season so I just wait for it...

 

[jncuse]

I think his point has some merit if one is comparing two bubble teams like you say. It's a fact that committee members are sent all over the country to watch games in person. I mean, from a negative Nancy standpoint, does it matter with how we have lost many of our games? The giving up, getting blown out many occassions, no life on the court, no idea what to do, etc.? Of course if we just keep winning then it's all good. Just curious of your opinon since you clearly follow the stuff WAY better than I do, the data/projections/resumes part that is. I mean if a committee member or two were in MSG or South Bend...oh boy.

I think once your on the bubble group you are open to all kinds of unique subjective or objective interpretations that are not always consistent. Or a vocal member of the committee who says this team sucked when he saw them.

If people remember last year I was pretty adamant that we had to be in the bubble discussion, while some dismissed us. My main point was there was not that many other P5 contenders keft. At the same time I never said we would be in or not, just because I imagine the 1 vs 1 comparison could go in various directions that are not always consistent

So I think you are basically right - when teams are so close on the bottom subjectivity could be a factor.
It didn't seem to be too subjective last year in the end, as they just took all the bigger conference teams that had chance for top 50 wins (including the AAC), and shunned the A-10, Monmouth, San Diego St and St. Mary's.

The best advice is keep winning so you are not on the bubble. If you are on the bubble anything can happen, and to a certain degree you deserve your fate.

 

[jncuse]

Syracuse is not beating Virginia.

It's interesting because this is typically the classic let down game in conference play for a team like Virginia (or any top 15 team)

You get a top team coming in during early February, the dog days of the season, a tourey bid is locked, and they are still a long way from the tournament starting and they have a hard time getting charged up. Syracuse on the other hand has to be charged up as it is a crucial game for them.

But the countering force to Virginia letting down is the Elite 8 game from last year. It will be easier for Virginia to get motivated for this one, than say against Clemson or Wake or Georgia Tech.

 

[OrangeDW]

Syracuse is not beating Virginia.

That's what logic says, but sports aren't always logical.

I'm amazed that we're even talking about this stuff. This looked like a completely lost season a few weeks ago. I'm just happy that we're competing and winning some games and keeping ourselves in the conversation.

 

[jncuse]

The line against Viriginia shoud come in around Virignia -7 to Virginia -8. We will be the clear dog, but it's not an impossible game to win either. These types of results are not uncommon in conference play.

 

[benjams77]

I think his point has some merit if one is comparing two bubble teams like you say. It's a fact that committee members are sent all over the country to watch games in person. I mean, from a negative Nancy standpoint, does it matter with how we have lost many of our games? The giving up, getting blown out many occassions, no life on the court, no idea what to do, etc.? Of course if we just keep winning then it's all good. Just curious of your opinon since you clearly follow the stuff WAY better than I do, the data/projections/resumes part that is. I mean if a committee member or two were in MSG or South Bend...oh boy.

My main point is that for years we have heard they want teams to go out and play someone in OOC...Well I think when the committee looks at the SU schedule,,,They say they challenged themselves although the numbers dont show it...If you just look at the names of teams we played in OOC from 5 years ago to this year and last...The names and programs traditions are better...and even Monmouth helps. That coupled with our ACC schedule is a grind...I just think the conversation helps...I just look at S. Carolina last year...they had a nice record but played no one and was in the weak SEC and missed the tourney

 

[jncuse]

My main point is that for years we have heard they want teams to go out and play someone in OOC...Well I think when the committee looks at the SU schedule,,,They say they challenged themselves although the numbers dont show it...If you just look at the names of teams we played in OOC from 5 years ago to this year and last...The names and programs traditions are better...and even Monmouth helps. That coupled with our ACC schedule is a grind...I just think the conversation helps...I just look at S. Carolina last year...they had a nice record but played no one and was in the weak SEC and missed the tourney

The optics of our schedule are much better than the SOS numbers bear out. I can see that being a positive if it comes down to that.

But it's still hard to overcome the results of those games.

 

[Briancuse]

The line against Viriginia shoud come in around Virignia -7 to Virginia -8. We will be the clear dog, but it's not an impossible game to win either. These types of results are not uncommon in conference play.

No way they are that big a favorite, Fsu was only 2, I would say 3 or 4.

 

[Cusefan0307]

No way they are that big a favorite, Fsu was only 2, I would say 3 or 4.

Virginia has the 2nd best point differential per 100 possessions in the country. Ten points better than Florida State.

 

[Briancuse]

Virginia has the 2nd best point differential per 100 possessions in the country. Ten points better than Florida State.

Thats fine, 7 points is way too much.