Bubble Watch 2017

[jncuse]

Well we can keep this going. So many moving parts that it's hard to look at other games as a positive or negative.

But the most important thing is we kept winning -- I will do a new table similar to the first post on Saturday before the games.

A few interesting results tonight

Indiana is sliding and a loss here would have sent them to the bubble line. But they pulled it out. 14 out of 87 people have them out as of now, but they are probably too focused on the RPI, They do have those Kansas and UNC out of conference wins so if they stick to .500 in conference they should be fine.

Really big road win for TCU who are currently last team in on the matrix. When was the last time these guys made the tourney? Hate to say it, but Dixon has done a hell of a job.

Does this help or not help? Hard to say in other ACC games with a month to go. I guess it's better for us as we will be closer to Miami than FSU.

 

[jncuse]

Nice to see St. John's get close to .500 in conference -- at the same time they beat a team that was currently in.

 

[jncuse]

Here is another interesting result from tonight.

If Nevada kept playing well they could play themselves into bid stealer status. No top 50 wins or games, 5-2 vs top 100, 9 road/neutral wins.

But this is a bad loss for them. It would be nice if there are no at large contenders in the end from the MWC. Same thing happened last year -- this conference has really slipped.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

jncuse: you do a great service with this thread (and in preivous years). thank you!

 

[jncuse]

jncuse: you do a great service with this thread (and in preivous years). thank you!

Thank you I need to take it easy after the daily insanity at the office, I find making these posts very calming.

 

[Niastri]

Consecutive turnovers in last 30 seconds as they tried to get fouled. Then terrible execution on last possession after they fell behind.

What I painfully refer to as 'Paul Harris closing a game against Pitt.'

 

[Knicks411]

Thank you I need to take it easy after the daily insanity at the office, I find making these posts very calming.

You do an awesome job with this, like I said before, some of my favorite stuff on the board. That being said, I wish we didn't have to be so aware of all the bubble action around the country...

 

[jncuse]

A few games of interest tonight

While Michigan St has the advantage of schedule, this could still be its 10th loss of the year. Never assume any road game is easy for a bubble team.

UNC Wilmingtonhas a projected RPI around 30, a decent KP of 55, they are 4-1 vs 51-100 schools. They risk being a bid stealer. They play a top conference team tonight. A loss would be nice,

 

[upperdeck]

just comparing wake to SU what have they done to get first 4 out but we get no mention.

both have miami/NC st wins
wake lost to every decent OC team

they have no FSU type win and we beat them, so does a St johns loss hurt more than a FSU win helps?

in the end they probably at best get to 8-10 and more likely 7-11 in the ACC and we need to get to 10 anyway.

Clemson is much the same.. they have a loss to OK to our ST johns. no Good ACC wins, they have a SC win to compare to our FSU win and nothing else

But again we control our destiny against them too. 7-11 is the best they can do I think and thats even with beating us.

 

[jncuse]

UNC Wilmington loses by 1. Good result for any P5 bubble team.

 

[jncuse]

just comparing wake to SU what have they done to get first 4 out but we get no mention.

both have miami/NC st wins
wake lost to every decent OC team

they have no FSU type win and we beat them, so does a St johns loss hurt more than a FSU win helps?

in the end they probably at best get to 8-10 and more likely 7-11 in the ACC and we need to get to 10 anyway.

Clemson is much the same.. they have a loss to OK to our ST johns. no Good ACC wins, they have a SC win to compare to our FSU win and nothing else

But again we control our destiny against them too. 7-11 is the best they can do I think and thats even with beating us.

Wake has the classic nothing good, but nothing bad resume, and a good RPI.
Good RPI
No bad losses - there worst loss was on the road at Syracuse,
No good wins either.

What is better -- a P5 team with a good RPI that goes 0-8 vs top 50... or a mid major that goes 8-0 vs sub 100 teams, plays no top 50 games and has a good RPI. The mid majors have been left out, but put ACC on a team's jersey give them a good RPI and they are in.

If there was a tournament today, I doubt Wake gets in. I think some of the bracket makers are a little too focused on current RPI.

 

[pearl31]

the bracket makers are a little too focused on current RPI.

yessir

 

[Knicks411]

Wake has the classic nothing good, but nothing bad resume, and a good RPI.
Good RPI
No bad losses - there worst loss was on the road at Syracuse,
No good wins either.

What is better -- a P5 team with a good RPI that goes 0-8 vs top 50... or a mid major that goes 8-0 vs sub 100 teams, plays no top 50 games and has a good RPI. The mid majors have been left out, but put ACC on a team's jersey give them a good RPI and they are in.

If there was a tournament today, I doubt Wake gets in. I think some of the bracket makers are a little too focused on current RPI.

I was thinking about this recently, it's amazing how far you can go if you play in a pretty good league and just don't shoot yourself in the foot. Wake is a perfect example, if you use KP ratings, they have won 4 games this season against teams in the top 100. They are

Bucknell at home (#89)
@ College of Charleston (#91)
Miami at home (#44)
@NC State (#88)

But, like you said, the worst rated team they lost to was us (#53), on the road. They have played a ton of good teams (Nova, Xavier, Northwestern ooc, plus the ACC schedule), lost to all of them, beaten one team that has a shot at the tournament (at home no less) and they're at least in the conversation.

 

[Jasoncuse]

We've started hitting a few brackets on the Bracket Matrix (3 to be exact):

http://www.thesportsbank.net/core/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/2017-Bracketology.jpg
BZ Bracket
DAILY BRACKET

Still behind every ACC team except BC. Gotta beat the Clemson, GTech and Pittsburghs left on the schedule, for sure. Win tomorrow, and I'm guessing we'll be on most come Monday.

 

[jncuse]

No way they are that big a favorite, Fsu was only 2, I would say 3 or 4.

The line opened at -7 as I had expected last Sunday. I agree the formula doesn't make much sense at times, but they seem to stick to it no matter what.

For some reason the analytics are not that crazy about Florida St. They were a 3.5 point dog to Miami this week.

 

[pearl31]

so jncuse, what is the highest rpi range you think the committee would be willing to stomach?

 

[Dave85]

Road wins are huge. Getting two wins in the ACC tournament will be huge. The committee wants to pick teams that will create Madness. Maybe our last year results will help us this year.

 

[jncuse]

so jncuse, what is the highest rpi range you think the committee would be willing to stomach?

Around 70.