Bubble Watch 2017

[Cusefan0307]

Thats fine, 7 points is way too much.

I hear you, but the analytics(Vegas) people think we are closer in competition with Florida State than Florida State is to Virginia.

I maintain that home against Virginia and at Louisville are the two toughest games left. I do think the noon start helps us though. I'm not sure what the road teams record is when it comes to noon starts, but I think it's even worse than normal.

I really hope JB learned from the elite 8. Besides Malachi going off, the main reason we won that game was because we applied pressure and they couldn't handle it. I wonder if he will adjust and apply that next Saturday for a regular season game as we need every big win we can get. If you don't apply pressure you just play into their hands and I'm not sure Perrantes can handle someone in his dribble.

 

[jncuse]

No way they are that big a favorite, Fsu was only 2, I would say 3 or 4.

Every Syracuse game since mid December (as far as I can remember) has opened usually within a point of the line per KP model. It seems Vegas sets odds using a similar model, so it's easy to predict lines before they actually come out. Until I see an aberration I am going to stick with this.

The reason there is a big variance in spreads is because Virginia is #2 and Florida St is only #20 in KenPom. Not sure why Florida St is so low, but those are the numbers and what they use for odds. Right now Virginia is about a 6 point favourite over Florida St on a neutral court.

Does the line sound wrong? Yes, the variance seems strange, but that appears to be the basis they use.

 

[jncuse]

I predict the NC St line, will be NC St -1. Basically a pick em game, which we really need to win.

 

[blust2i3d4]

I predict the NC St line, will be NC St -1. Basically a pick em game, which we really need to win.

We can afford losing to Virginia but cannot afford losing to NC State. If we lose to Virginia, we still have 50% of chance to make NCAA tournament. Losing to NC State, the chance drops to 20%.

 

[jncuse]

We can afford losing to Virginia but cannot afford losing to NC State. If we lose to Virginia, we still have 50% of chance to make NCAA tournament. Losing to NC State, the chance drops to 20%.

Not sure what the basis are for those %'s but they seem a bit high. But you might have more faith in Syracuse to perform down the stetch than I do. Hope you are right.

 

[SoBeCuse]

I hear you, but the analytics(Vegas) people think we are closer in competition with Florida State than Florida State is to Virginia.

I maintain that home against Virginia and at Louisville are the two toughest games left. I do think the noon start helps us though. I'm not sure what the road teams record is when it comes to noon starts, but I think it's even worse than normal.

I really hope JB learned from the elite 8. Besides Malachi going off, the main reason we won that game was because we applied pressure and they couldn't handle it. I wonder if he will adjust and apply that next Saturday for a regular season game as we need every big win we can get. If you don't apply pressure you just play into their hands and I'm not sure Perrantes can handle someone in his dribble.

Yeah, I agree with all of this. Virginia will always be a problem due to style and how they execute in the halfcourt. Always solid fundamentally as well. It will interesting what JB comes up with. Or not.

Louisville and Arizona are playing the best basketball in the country, IMO. Kansas right there too. Gillon/Battle/Howard better be ready for them. Mahmoud and Mathiang are good enough players on the inside too on both ends. Mitchell and co. are hitting threes. Snider hasn't even been playing lately and they are just crushing people.

 

[Newhouser]

Syracuse is not beating Virginia.

or Louisville.

 

[Cusefan0307]

or Louisville.

We can beat Louisville at home.

 

[FrancoPizza]

All the analysis is great but it's easier to break this down into smaller chunks. If we lose both games this week, we're out of the discussion. Split and we're treading water or maybe making up some small ground just by default of who and where we've played. Winning both is very unlikely but not impossible. Bennett will have his team ready for trunk monkey with 9 minutes to go this time around... so you have to ask yourself if a JB team can beat VA straight up with the 2-3?

 

[Knicks411]

I used the Bracket Matrix as a proxy for who is in and who is out "as of now".

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

You may note two things:
1) My last 4 in / last 4 out is not a direct match to the matrix. The matrix uses a rolling week of submissions. I only tabulated the last 4 in/out based on the submissions in the past day as those are more relevant.
2) The matrix is as of yesterday, but the data is as of now. It's impossible to match up everything, but my main purpose below will still be met.

What I am trying to show is what a bubble profile looks like right now, and where we are at. So here is the chart

View attachment 87897

I included the KP rating as the committee made announced it will roll off RPI next year and also looking at analytic ratings right now.

A few observations:

1) Our warts are abundantly clear when we compare to other teams and we are welll behind right now.
- No road or neutral wins
- 3 Sub 100 Losses. No one else has above 1
- Bad RPI

2) In terms of quality wins and top 100 wins, we are even as of now. But the only way we make it in is if we are clearly ahead of most of the bubble in this important indicator by the time selection comes around. AND WE DO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO GET MORE QUALITY. But We really do have to take 2 out of 3 at home vs Duke, Louisville and Virginia to likely have a chance to cover the warts.

I still think 11-7 will come up with a mix of wins that at least gives us a few road wins, and more quality than the rest. Can we get there, I don't know.

3) CLEMSON - I have seen a few people criticize the fact they are in, but in reality their numbers hold up quite well for the entire body of work despite the recent 6 game losing streak.

In thinking about this yesterday, that's pretty much the takeaway I had. Duke has struggled somewhat lately, but they'll right the ship, and Lunardi has them as a 5 right now, UVA as a 4, and Lville as a 2. (Plus FSU as a 3).

Also interesting to note, that just using Lunardi, he has Miami and Clemson as the last 4 byes, plus Wake Forest as last 4 in, and Ga Tech as his 7th team out. So plenty of teams around us in the ACC standings right on the cut line. @State is a game they really need to win. Need to win some road games at some point. If they could somehow get 3-1 in the next 4 (3 of them on the road) you could start to talk

 

[Eric15]

I still think it's going to be tricky for us to make the tourney, but at least we have a puncher's chance now. The rest of the season is still worth watching and will be entertaining, which didn't seem like the case after we lost at BC.

 

[Knicks411]

I still think it's going to be tricky for us to make the tourney, but at least we have a puncher's chance now. The rest of the season is still worth watching and will be entertaining, which didn't seem like the case after we lost at BC.

it's definitely a relative long shot. Our first win away from the dome is going to come on Feb 1 at the earliest. Not a good sign.

But, like you said, a punchers chance is a hell of a lot more than anyone would have thought 4 weeks ago.

 

[upperdeck]

It would also help of 2-3 of those teams right there with us tanked a bit.. We control our destiny with the ACC bubble teams

 

[Cusefan0307]

It would also help of 2-3 of those teams right there with us tanked a bit.. We control our destiny with the ACC bubble teams

And we have already beaten two of them(Miami, Wake). Need to beat Clemson as well.

 

[jncuse]

While it's way too early to look at every bubble team's matches, I did want to note a couple of interesting teams and matchups this week.

A couple of interesting teams on the bubble right now are Oklahoma St and Wichita St. Two teams that have major warts but have outstanding power rankings -- both are ranked around #20 which is extremely good. It will be interesting to see if those numbers have any relevance this year.

View attachment 87897

Oklahoma St is 2-6 in the Big Eight. They have a good RPI, good KP, road wins. But the record is not good. It's a crucial game tonight for them against Oklahoma.

Wichita St is 17-4. No bad losses - they beat everyone they should beat, and as I mentioned a good analytical rating of around 20 in KP. But they are 0-4 against the top 50, including a loss at home to Oklahoma St, and a loss on a neutral court to Michigan St, and a loss at Illinois St. They didn't have many opportunities, but you can't blow them all either. Those were reasonable opportunities to get at least one win This week will be their last chance to get a top 100 win. -- on Saturday they play Illinois St at home which is It will be an empty resume either way, but if they lose Saturday they have zero shot in my view. They are already behind the eight ball, and unlike us they have zero chance to grow a resume. They will probably still end up with a KP in the 20's -- how far can that carry them with the committee apparently embracing power ratings now other than RPI.

 

[Briancuse]

I still think it's going to be tricky for us to make the tourney, but at least we have a puncher's chance now. The rest of the season is still worth watching and will be entertaining, which didn't seem like the case after we lost at BC.

Just give me some hope the rest of the way, make the last couple of games meaningful with a chance to get in the tourney, and I will be ok.

 

[tee1222]

Just give me some hope the rest of the way, make the last couple of games meaningful with a chance to get in the tourney, and I will be ok.

You never know. Couple more choice wins and it might feel like this again.
Come on Gravy Train, you got some folks to pick up in CNY.

 

[jncuse]

This was the post I was about to write before Oklahoma crapped the bed in the last 30 seconds.

------------

Oklahoma - W
Oklahoma St - L

Way too early to make a big deal out of any game, but if we start to play better and somehow get on the bubble these are the type of results we need. Bubble teams losing to P5 bottom feeders in conference. It's weird to refer to Oklahoma as a bottom feeder off a F4 appearance, but they really are struggling.

 

[Briancuse]

This was the post I was about to write before Oklahoma crapped the bed in the last 30 seconds.

------------

Oklahoma - W
Oklahoma St - L

Way too early to make a big deal out of any game, but if we start to play better and somehow get on the bubble these are the type of results we need. Bubble teams losing to P5 bottom feeders in conference. It's weird to refer to Oklahoma as a bottom feeder off a F4 appearance, but they really are struggling.

What the heck happened? I saw Ou was up 3 with the ball with like 28 seconds left, how in the world did they lose?

 

[jncuse]

What the heck happened? I saw Ou was up 3 with the ball with like 28 seconds left, how in the world did they lose?

Consecutive turnovers in last 30 seconds as they tried to get fouled. Then terrible execution on last possession after they fell behind.

 

[jncuse]

The Bracket Matrix is much fresher today, with 53 of 82 brackets coming in today, so it reflects last week's action pretty well.

I redid the cut-off by merely looking at today's submissions. The ACC is still sprinkled all over the place.

Clemson still in on over 80% of the brackets as is Miami. Georgia Tech made a big jump and is now in on 64% of the brackets. Those 2 games against Georgia Tech are shaping up to be huge. Games at one point that we did not think could be quality win opportunities. Of course they are tougher to win as well.

Would have been nice if Oklahoma St would have lost today.
I still don't see what people see in Wichita St.

CUSA, MVC, MWC, and CAA leaders are moving into the 10/11 lines on the brackets. This is those lines where you are not sure if they are at large teams or not. So maybe the "bid stealer" pool is increasing. Those teams will need to continue dominating their conferences.


Wake Forest has started to slide off most brackets after their bad week last week. Will do full resumes of last 4 / first 4 out compared to Syracuse if we beat NC St. No point doing it until that point.

 

[Cusefan0307]

The Bracket Matrix is much fresher today, with 53 of 82 brackets coming in today, so it reflects last week's action pretty well.

I redid the cut-off by merely looking at today's submissions. The ACC is still sprinkled all over the place.

Clemson still in on over 80% of the brackets as is Miami. Georgia Tech made a big jump and is now in on 64% of the brackets. Those 2 games against Georgia Tech are shaping up to be huge. Games at one point that we did not think could be quality win opportunities. Of course they are tougher to win as well.

Would have been nice if Oklahoma St would have lost today.
I still don't see what people see in Wichita St.

CUSA, MVC, MWC, and CAA leaders are moving into the 10/11 lines on the brackets. This is those lines where you are not sure if they are at large teams or not. So maybe the "bid stealer" pool is increasing. Those teams will need to continue dominating their conferences.


Wake Forest has started to slide off most brackets after their bad week last week. Will do full resumes of last 4 / first 4 out compared to Syracuse if we beat NC St. No point doing it until that point.

View attachment 88029

Beating Georgia Tech, Clemson, and NC State are going to greatly improve our chances.

 

[jncuse]

Big opportunity for Georgia tonight to get back in the mix. Get to play at Kentucky who has 3 rotation players out of the game (sick I believe). Road win would be huge. Hopefully we get one of those type of breaks against Virginia or Louisville.

Georgia up 11-0 early.

 

[Briancuse]

Beating Georgia Tech, Clemson, and NC State are going to greatly improve our chances.

If we could go 3-1 in those 4 games, we would be in pretty good shape.

 

[Briancuse]

Big opportunity for Georgia tonight to get back in the mix. Get to play at Kentucky who has 3 rotation players out of the game (sick I believe). Road win would be huge. Hopefully we get one of those type of breaks against Virginia or Louisville.

Georgia up 11-0 early.

Had a two point lead with 20 seconds to go, can't ask for much more than that.