Bubble Watch - Conf Tourney Saturday (Still Alive)

[orangenirvana]

I know their RPI and SOS are better, but I don't see how Wake gets in over us so I feel cautiously optimistic. We have a better record w/ much better wins in conference, and we beat them.

The biggest concern and knock on Syracuse has been their performance away from the Dome. Will those big wins carry enough weight considering they all occurred at home? That's the question the committee will be faced with when it comes to Syracuse.

 

[jncuse]

I wonder about these big east teams. I really feel like that conference is over rated, though I have no arguments to back it up.

It just feels like outside of nova and maybe butler everyone else just trades wins all year and ends up around .500. I feel like they are gaming the rpi somehow, but again I have nothing to back it up.

On a side note, I think all those mid majors who figured out how to game the rpi are really the reason it's getting phased out. I remember the mountain west had a nice trick back in 2013 where everyone in the league replaced their one or two lowest ranked opponents with d2 teams, which didn't count as rpi games. Then the whole conference got over seeded and almost all of them were beat by higher seeded teams the first weekend.

I tend to look at KP as a way to test the RPI and what it is producing. While individual RPI's do not matter, conference RPI certainly does as it builds resumes.

It does show some gaps from time to time that show the flaws in the RPI top 50 and conferences in particular.. It can also not be "gamed" like the RPI.

Given that the Big East has 7 teams in the KP top 55, 7 does pass the smell test, but the season worked out as best as it could for them. It was not gaming, but they were lucky there was not another dominant team that could have reduced it to 6.

The mid majors were truly better in 2013 than now, it was not a matter of "gaming" in my view. In 2013, 16 of the top 50 KP teams were not from the P6, including 4 from the MWC . In 2017, only 8 of the top 50 in the KP top 50 are from outside the P5+BE... and 3 of those are from the AAC.

 

[pearl31]

Now listen to people like Alsacs, Chris, ON, Pearl or any others who make arguments for Syracuse above those other teams. Are we actually above them? Not sure, but there is enough out there to think we could very well be ahead of one of those teams.

Well, all that I have left to offer at this point is that we are right there in the mix. RI losing today would seemingly help us, as would VCU winning that tourney. And MTSU getting the C-USA autobid. And probably Kentucky beating Alabama.
The matrix is a useful guide for the big picture of where all the teams generally stand. But now that we're down to the nitty gritty of last several in or out - that's all committee judgement, which the matrix isn't able to capture.
We're right in the mix.

 

[CuseTG2003]

The biggest concern and knock on Syracuse has been their performance away from the Dome. Will those big wins carry enough weight considering they all occurred at home? That's the question the committee will be faced with when it comes to Syracuse.

Yep. Just winning at VT would've been huge. For awhile I thought losing to the old BE teams is what would do us in, but those games weren't nearly as important as the very winnable conference road games we lost.

 

[orangenirvana]

The mid majors were truly better in 2013 than now, it was not a matter of "gaming" in my view. In 2013, 16 of the top 50 KP teams were not from the P6, including 4 from the MWC . In 2017, only 8 of the top 50 in the KP top 50 are from outside the P5+BE... and 3 of those are from the AAC.

Very interesting info.

 

[Chris02M]

any 1 road or neutral site win and we would be in good shape(~80% lock)

 

[jdubs30]

Jay Williams and Bilas think we're in. Seth Greenberg said he "has a feeling" that we're out

 

[pearl31]

Jay Williams and Bilas think we're in. Seth Greenberg said he "has a feeling" that we're out

a feeling he knows all too well!

 

[SUMBA]

jncuse, thanks for all the great work this season and especially the last week. I have greatly appreciated your analysis and insights. LGO!!!!!

 

[Eric15]

I tend to look at KP as a way to test the RPI and what it is producing. While individual RPI's do not matter, conference RPI certainly does as it builds resumes.

It does show some gaps from time to time that show the flaws in the RPI top 50 and conferences in particular.. It can also not be "gamed" like the RPI.

Given that the Big East has 7 teams in the KP top 55, 7 does pass the smell test, but the season worked out as best as it could for them. It was not gaming, but they were lucky there was not another dominant team that could have reduced it to 6.

The mid majors were truly better in 2013 than now, it was not a matter of "gaming" in my view. In 2013, 16 of the top 50 KP teams were not from the P6, including 4 from the MWC . In 2017, only 8 of the top 50 in the KP top 50 are from outside the P5+BE... and 3 of those are from the AAC.

Forgive me if you said this in another post, but what do you feel is our percentage chance of getting in as of right now? Something like 40%?

 

[jncuse]

Forgive me if you said this in another post, but what do you feel is our percentage chance of getting in as of right now? Something like 40%?

At least 50%.

 

[tptcuse]

Does this Vermont win help? Would they have received an at-large bid if Albany won?

 

[skurey]

Raftery sounding a bit horse

 

[PauliePeppas]

Gottliebs doing the Rhode Island game

 

[upperdeck]

committee has its normal work cut out for them..

ala/uconn/ucf teams that could rip the bubble up.

ri/nevada if they dont win being bubble contenders.

su/wake/usc/xavier/KSU/Ill st being the bubble

 

[SUMBA]

Gottliebs doing the Rhode Island game
View attachment 91489

Gottliebs gonna Gottlieb.

 

[orangenirvana]

Gottliebs doing the Rhode Island game
View attachment 91489

Hahahaha

 

[djorange1989]

After every Rhode Island basket Dougie will say they are in and Cuse is out.

 

[Ryand877]

At least 50%.

What will it be if RI holds on ?

 

[jdubs30]

I don't think Nevada would get an at-large if they lost today. But better safe than sorry - it's easier if they win

 

[HakAttack]

Rhode Island raining threes here. Hoping they get cold in the second half.

 

[iommi]

Rhode Island looks really dominant in this one right now. They were a team that were looked as a sleeper team before this year and yes, they have struggled. However, they seem to have righted the ship.

I'm a little concerned that if they win this today, they will get a bid.

 

[PauliePeppas]

This shooting by Rhode Island is ridiculous

 

[tptcuse]

Don't like how close the Kentucky-Alabama game is...

 

[HakAttack]

I don't see how some folks have us squarely in. Bilas for example.