Are they huddled up in the room now? I thought they usually start like Wed
Bubble Watch - Last Weekend of Regular Season
- Thread starter jncuse
- Start date
Are they huddled up in the room now? I thought they usually start like Wed
They do but I'm sure their told to watch games
orangenirvana
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Ugh. That could hurt us. Might drop Monmouth out of the Top 50, which would drop SU's Top 50 wins total to five.
Wednesday becomes that much more important.
raf4488
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It's so arbitrary. Like beating RPI #45 should be afforded significantly more weight than beating #52. I hope that's not the way they evaluate, and if it's not it shouldn't make much of a difference for us.
721Comstock
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He's looking at how many more clicks and tweets he'll get from tweaked SU fans by saying shite like that -
it works every time.
Hopefully one loss won't drop them too far, we really need that top 50 win.
jncuse
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It won't matter. They spend hours / few days discussing the bubble, so its not two guys yelling at each other
6 TOP 50 WINS vs 7 ROAD WINS all day. When they seed teams outside the pods my understanding is it is very much a metric exercise and little else until the bubble. So if we were a 5-9 seed it probably would matter.
But when they get down to the guts of the bubble, especially if down to a handful it's a much more granular review. They also extend quality wins to tourney teams above "x" line or bubble teams.
I don't think they would have given Monmouth much value, but if they decide it is something of value, they will get credit for it whether it is RPI #45 or RPI #52.
Last edited:
orangenirvana
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Monmouth now ranked #48 in the RPI.
721Comstock
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Whew!!
orangenirvana
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After the weekend, here's how I would rank the 30 bubble teams...
1. Vanderbilt - 49/40/48/45 = 45.5 / 5-7 (2-5) - 9 seed
2. Michigan State - 42/50/47/47 = 46.5 / 5-8 (2-7) - 9 seed
3. Northwestern - 39/35/43/54 = 42.75 / 4-7 (1-6) - 9 seed
4. Virginia Tech - 47.25 / 4-7 (2-5) - 10 seed
5. Wake Forest - 30.5 / 3-9 (1-7) - 10 seed
6. Providence - 55/53/55/53 = 54.0 / 6-7 (1-4) - 10 seed
7. Seton Hall - 50/54/56/44 = 51.0 / 4-6 (1-4) - 10 seed
8. Syracuse - 48.0 / *6-7 (3-4) - 11 seed
9. Arkansas - 40/39/44/28 = 37.75 / 3-6 (0-4) - 11 seed
10. Xavier - 34/43/36/34 = 36.75 / 3-8 (0-6) - 11 seed play-in game
11. Rhode Island - 52/51/40/42 = 46.25 / 2-3 (2-3) - 11 seed play-in game
12. VCU - 42/49/39/23 = 38.25 / *2-3 (1-2) - 11 seed play-in game
13. Kansas State - 37/33/41/58 = 42.25 / 3-8 (2-5) - 11 seed play-in game
14. Indiana - 32/47/32/81 = 48.0 / 4-11 (2-6)
15. Iowa - 62/65/77/72 = 69.0 / 5-7 (2-5)
16. Middle Tennessee - 62/52/50/36 = 50.0 / 2-1 (0-1)
17. Illinois - 67/67/62/57 = 63.25 / 5-8 (1-6)
18. Houston - 45/41/36/50 = 43.0 / 2-5 (0-4)
19. USC - 56/59/59/38 = 53.0 / *2-5 (2-5)
20. Georgia Tech - 88.25 / 4-7 (4-4)
21. Clemson - 45.25 / 4-11 (0-7)
22. Illinois State - 54/49/59/30 = 48.0 / *1-1 (0-0)
23. Ohio State - 60/69/60/77 = 66.5 / 4-9 (1-6)
24. Texas Tech - 41/37/37/104 = 54.75 / *2-8 (2-4)
25. California - 51/55/52/56 = 53.5 / 1-7 (0-6)
26. TCU - 45/46/53/79 = 55.75 / *2-10 (0-7)
27. Pittsburgh - 71.5 / 3-11 (3-8)
28. Georgia - 54/56/69/54 = 58.25 / *1-8 (0-5)
29. Tennessee - 66/60/66/76 = 67.0 / 2-10 (1-5)
30. Utah - 43/41/57/73 - 53.5 / *1-6 (0-5)
1. Vanderbilt - 49/40/48/45 = 45.5 / 5-7 (2-5) - 9 seed
2. Michigan State - 42/50/47/47 = 46.5 / 5-8 (2-7) - 9 seed
3. Northwestern - 39/35/43/54 = 42.75 / 4-7 (1-6) - 9 seed
4. Virginia Tech - 47.25 / 4-7 (2-5) - 10 seed
5. Wake Forest - 30.5 / 3-9 (1-7) - 10 seed
6. Providence - 55/53/55/53 = 54.0 / 6-7 (1-4) - 10 seed
7. Seton Hall - 50/54/56/44 = 51.0 / 4-6 (1-4) - 10 seed
8. Syracuse - 48.0 / *6-7 (3-4) - 11 seed
9. Arkansas - 40/39/44/28 = 37.75 / 3-6 (0-4) - 11 seed
10. Xavier - 34/43/36/34 = 36.75 / 3-8 (0-6) - 11 seed play-in game
11. Rhode Island - 52/51/40/42 = 46.25 / 2-3 (2-3) - 11 seed play-in game
12. VCU - 42/49/39/23 = 38.25 / *2-3 (1-2) - 11 seed play-in game
13. Kansas State - 37/33/41/58 = 42.25 / 3-8 (2-5) - 11 seed play-in game
14. Indiana - 32/47/32/81 = 48.0 / 4-11 (2-6)
15. Iowa - 62/65/77/72 = 69.0 / 5-7 (2-5)
16. Middle Tennessee - 62/52/50/36 = 50.0 / 2-1 (0-1)
17. Illinois - 67/67/62/57 = 63.25 / 5-8 (1-6)
18. Houston - 45/41/36/50 = 43.0 / 2-5 (0-4)
19. USC - 56/59/59/38 = 53.0 / *2-5 (2-5)
20. Georgia Tech - 88.25 / 4-7 (4-4)
21. Clemson - 45.25 / 4-11 (0-7)
22. Illinois State - 54/49/59/30 = 48.0 / *1-1 (0-0)
23. Ohio State - 60/69/60/77 = 66.5 / 4-9 (1-6)
24. Texas Tech - 41/37/37/104 = 54.75 / *2-8 (2-4)
25. California - 51/55/52/56 = 53.5 / 1-7 (0-6)
26. TCU - 45/46/53/79 = 55.75 / *2-10 (0-7)
27. Pittsburgh - 71.5 / 3-11 (3-8)
28. Georgia - 54/56/69/54 = 58.25 / *1-8 (0-5)
29. Tennessee - 66/60/66/76 = 67.0 / 2-10 (1-5)
30. Utah - 43/41/57/73 - 53.5 / *1-6 (0-5)
Ryand877
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Appreciate the work all you put into this.
longtimefan
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Could a single "bad loss" by the teams above SU drop the loser below the Orange?
TexanMark
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So do we want to root for Siena or Iona tonight...To help keep Monmouth in the Top 50?
orangenirvana
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Well, Monmouth played Siena three times compared to Iona twice so not sure it would make any difference but any little bit helps I guess.
jdubs30
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So we've been talking about these bubble teams that are battling for at-large spots with - but we haven't really looked at who they're playing this week.
ACC:
Teams on the bubble: Wake, Clemson, GaTech
Wake: BC, VaTech, FSU
GaTech: Pitt, UVA, ND
Clemson: NC State, Duke, Louisville
Of the 3, Wake is closest to a bid, however, they face the most dangerous first game. BC is a lose/lose - winning that game will not move the needle for them, but lose it could end their shot. I would think if Wake wins their first 2 games, they'd get in. GaTech gets a top 70 RPI team to start, but they probably will have to beat Pitt and UVA to get back in the conversation. Clemson will have to win those first 3 games at a minimum - but if they do, that's 2 top 15 wins which is massive. (I'm not going to discuss us, we all know what we have to do).
Obviously it'd be better for us of all 3 of these teams lose early.
A10:
Teams on the bubble: URI
URI: St. Bonaventure, Dayton
I'm not a fan of URI's resume, but they are very much alive. They will most likely get St. Bonvaneture in their first game. The Bonnies are solid, but will not help URI. In the semi finals, they'd most likely get Dayton, who's already beaten them twice this year. I think it's safe to say that if URI gets to the A10 finals and beats Dayton along with the way, they'd be in.
American:
Teams on the bubble: Houston
Houston: UConn, Cincinnati
Houston will have to make it to the AAC finals at the least. Anything short of that they'll be out. Even then it's a stretch though - I don't think beating 120+ RPI and Cincinnati would catapult Houston into the field either. I think they need the automatic bid
Big12:
Teams on the bubble: Kansas State
Kansas State: Baylor, WVU
Kansas State is fairly straightforward. They open with Baylor - if they win that game, they're in, period. If they lose that game, they are probably in the same place they are today.
Big East:
Teams on the bubble: Xavier, Marquette, Providence
X: DePaul, Butler
Marquette: Seton Hall, Nova
PC: Creighton, Butler/X
I think the BE will get at least 6 teams in. I think Hall is a lock at this point and I think Marquette/PC are pretty close to locks. If any of those 3 teams lose, it won't damage their resume. Xavier is in a freefall without Sumner, a loss to DePaul would end their chances. Beating DePaul and losing to Butler will pretty much keep them where they are now. They could get in, but other teams could jump them. If they beat DePual and Butler, they're a lock.
Big Ten:
Teams on the bubble: MSU, Iowa, Indiana
MSU: Nebraska, Minnesota
Iowa: Indiana, Wisconsin
Indiana: Iowa, Wisconsin
I think MSU is safe. If they lose to Nebraska/PSU in their opener though, they might be vulnerable. Iowa/Indiana is interesting - I think we'd prefer Indiana to win this game and then lose to Wiscy. However it's clear the loser of Iowa/IU is done; and if the winner of that game loses to Wisconsin they are probably done as well - but the way Wisconsin has been playing, that's not guarantee. Iowa could sneak in with 2 wins.
Pac12:
Teams on the bubble: Cal, USC
Cal: Oregon State, Utah
USC: Washington, UCLA
Oregon State might be the worst P5 team. Similar to Wake, this game won't help Cal at all. A loss would end them and a win wouldn't boost their resume. They'll have to beat Utah to get some movement. USC is probably in the field right now, going 1-1 in the Pac12 tourney won't change that. However a loss to Washington would probably knock them out; while a win vs. UCLA would lock them in.
SEC:
Teams on the bubble: Vandy
This is pretty simple - we want the top 4 seeds to be in the semi-finals. We don't want a team like Bama, Tennessee, UGA, etc. making a surprising run to the finals. As long as UK, Florida, Arkansas and South Carolina are the last 4 teams standing - this tournament won't have much of an effect. Vandy openswith A&M then gets Florida - I still think Vandy is in unless they lose to A&M
Obviously we want to avoid bid stealers. But as we can see - many of our bubble buddies have tough tournament draws. If we take care of business we will be fine - but there are also chances for teams like Iowa and Cal to really solidify their resume.
ACC:
Teams on the bubble: Wake, Clemson, GaTech
Wake: BC, VaTech, FSU
GaTech: Pitt, UVA, ND
Clemson: NC State, Duke, Louisville
Of the 3, Wake is closest to a bid, however, they face the most dangerous first game. BC is a lose/lose - winning that game will not move the needle for them, but lose it could end their shot. I would think if Wake wins their first 2 games, they'd get in. GaTech gets a top 70 RPI team to start, but they probably will have to beat Pitt and UVA to get back in the conversation. Clemson will have to win those first 3 games at a minimum - but if they do, that's 2 top 15 wins which is massive. (I'm not going to discuss us, we all know what we have to do).
Obviously it'd be better for us of all 3 of these teams lose early.
A10:
Teams on the bubble: URI
URI: St. Bonaventure, Dayton
I'm not a fan of URI's resume, but they are very much alive. They will most likely get St. Bonvaneture in their first game. The Bonnies are solid, but will not help URI. In the semi finals, they'd most likely get Dayton, who's already beaten them twice this year. I think it's safe to say that if URI gets to the A10 finals and beats Dayton along with the way, they'd be in.
American:
Teams on the bubble: Houston
Houston: UConn, Cincinnati
Houston will have to make it to the AAC finals at the least. Anything short of that they'll be out. Even then it's a stretch though - I don't think beating 120+ RPI and Cincinnati would catapult Houston into the field either. I think they need the automatic bid
Big12:
Teams on the bubble: Kansas State
Kansas State: Baylor, WVU
Kansas State is fairly straightforward. They open with Baylor - if they win that game, they're in, period. If they lose that game, they are probably in the same place they are today.
Big East:
Teams on the bubble: Xavier, Marquette, Providence
X: DePaul, Butler
Marquette: Seton Hall, Nova
PC: Creighton, Butler/X
I think the BE will get at least 6 teams in. I think Hall is a lock at this point and I think Marquette/PC are pretty close to locks. If any of those 3 teams lose, it won't damage their resume. Xavier is in a freefall without Sumner, a loss to DePaul would end their chances. Beating DePaul and losing to Butler will pretty much keep them where they are now. They could get in, but other teams could jump them. If they beat DePual and Butler, they're a lock.
Big Ten:
Teams on the bubble: MSU, Iowa, Indiana
MSU: Nebraska, Minnesota
Iowa: Indiana, Wisconsin
Indiana: Iowa, Wisconsin
I think MSU is safe. If they lose to Nebraska/PSU in their opener though, they might be vulnerable. Iowa/Indiana is interesting - I think we'd prefer Indiana to win this game and then lose to Wiscy. However it's clear the loser of Iowa/IU is done; and if the winner of that game loses to Wisconsin they are probably done as well - but the way Wisconsin has been playing, that's not guarantee. Iowa could sneak in with 2 wins.
Pac12:
Teams on the bubble: Cal, USC
Cal: Oregon State, Utah
USC: Washington, UCLA
Oregon State might be the worst P5 team. Similar to Wake, this game won't help Cal at all. A loss would end them and a win wouldn't boost their resume. They'll have to beat Utah to get some movement. USC is probably in the field right now, going 1-1 in the Pac12 tourney won't change that. However a loss to Washington would probably knock them out; while a win vs. UCLA would lock them in.
SEC:
Teams on the bubble: Vandy
This is pretty simple - we want the top 4 seeds to be in the semi-finals. We don't want a team like Bama, Tennessee, UGA, etc. making a surprising run to the finals. As long as UK, Florida, Arkansas and South Carolina are the last 4 teams standing - this tournament won't have much of an effect. Vandy openswith A&M then gets Florida - I still think Vandy is in unless they lose to A&M
Obviously we want to avoid bid stealers. But as we can see - many of our bubble buddies have tough tournament draws. If we take care of business we will be fine - but there are also chances for teams like Iowa and Cal to really solidify their resume.
I agree 100% with your analysis.
jncuse
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This is thread starter material. Top quality post. You shouldn't bury it in the middle of this one. I might borrow it to start the Bubble Watch - Conference Tourney Week,
I have a few minor disagreements but generally agree with mostly everything:
- I think Wake Forest is close to lock as long as they don't lose to Boston College / or pure chaos below them in several conferences. I don't think they need that Tech win like we need the Miami win.
- Agree on Houston. I am more worried about the American Field vs Cincy/SMU.
- I would add that Cal needs to beat Oregon to get in.
- Where is Illinois? They are 2 wins from getting in if they beat Michigan and Purdue,
pearl31
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good stuff jdubs
jdubs30
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I go back and forth on Wake. I think one thing that's easy to say is that if they lose to BC, they're done. I think the Miami/VaTech games are of fairly equal importance
With you on Cal - beating Utah would probably put them right at the cut line, I definitely think they need 1 more big win - some others don't
Good catch on Illinois; they must have just completely slipped my mind - and I agree with you - I actually added that to your new topic.
Jasoncuse
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I hate that the American tourney is in Hartford. Not that UConn is any good or should even be close to winning that, but who knows with that program.
Looks like Wisconsin will help Iowa get in the Tourney.
Of all the teams that needs wins to either secure a spot or move up, only Kansas State has a tougher game than us. That sucks.
Looks like Wisconsin will help Iowa get in the Tourney.
Of all the teams that needs wins to either secure a spot or move up, only Kansas State has a tougher game than us. That sucks.
