Bubble Watch - Last Weekend of Regular Season

[djorange1989]

Wow, I just looked at Jerry Palm's latest bracket. Syracuse in the 3rd team out! He has the following teams ahead of Syracuse:
Michigan State, Marquette, Providence, Arkansas, Wake, Kansas State, Cal, Rhode Island, Illinois and Vandy

I don't care what anyone says, that's insane! He must be placing significant emphasis on RPI.

Yes I started a thread last night saying the exact same thing, that he is nuts, and his CBSSN colleagues on the hoops show last night gave him a ton of grief for having us out. He looks at RPI and, fairly, sees our really bad road record. If we can beat a top 30ish Miami on a neutral court(ok it's NY but it is still neutral) let's see if he drops us further anyway!

 

[Ryand877]

I guess we agree to disagree. It's something the committee says over and over to disregard every year. Time of year of a result does not matter. Virginia was left out with an 11-7 ACC record some years back because it did too much damage to itself in OOC.

Injuries they do take into account as they state. I don't know if I have seen this actually applied to a bubble team getting in or out though. It probably has, it's hard to notice. I don't remember it being cited as the reason for one team getting in. My general perception is that the threshold for playing "what if" has to be very high, I don't think they like to do it with bubble teams.

I also think JB's departure was not going to make an impact last year. I think the article written by the Syracuse writer last year was a poorly written. His took direct quotes but the key points in his article were not in quotations but explanations of quotations. I didn't fully buy it. And the chair himself after the selection show said that it was a totally irrelevant factor (maybe it was a dodge). But I think in the end they didn't need to consider it because we proved ourselves as streaky with the bad run at the end of the year (1-5). The quality road and neutral wins put us over the top.

As for changing lineups I believe that is 100% irrelevant. The storyline was probably presented by some media types when they argued why a team should get in. Even if Memphis got in, I doubt that was a factor. But maybe I am wrong.

Talking about injuries , etc, I'm not saying this is the case , but one could present the argument that we beat Louisville , pitt and tech there if Battle doesn't get the flu. I'm not saying this could be nor should be considered , but is this or how is this different from an injury ?

 

[gmoney44]

Talking about injuries , etc, I'm not saying this is the case , but one could present the argument that we beat Louisville , pitt and tech there if Battle doesn't get the flu. I'm not saying this could be nor should be considered , but is this or how is this different from an injury ?

How about our starting center be out half the season and our backup center missing almost the whole season. Will the committee take those injuries into account?

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Talking about injuries , etc, I'm not saying this is the case , but one could present the argument that we beat Louisville , pitt and tech there if Battle doesn't get the flu. I'm not saying this could be nor should be considered , but is this or how is this different from an injury ?

The problem is you would have to do this kind of analysis for all the other teams. And every team would come up with some type of excuses.

IMO, it was a bad road for the committee to have gone with downgrades for injuries to begin with.

 

[Ryand877]

How about our starting center be out half the season and our backup center missing almost the whole season. Will the committee take those injuries into account?

Fair question. Don't know the answer.

 

[jncuse]

How about our starting center be out half the season and our backup center missing almost the whole season. Will the committee take those injuries into account?

EDIT - To my initial comment

For the above it is a clear no.
1. They will apply injuries to your current team (but those guys are out at this point and not coming back)
2. Even if they were coming back, our team was worse with them playing regular roles.

On a larger level, these type of injuries don't meet the threshold from what I have observed. Given that is rarely ever cited for a bubble team getting in, the threshold is probably quite high. They tend not to play "what if" with the bubble and just measure the results independent of who played.

 

[CusefanATL]

Why is Michigan State considered such a lock? They are 18-13 and best wins are minnesota and Wisconsin.

They have lost to some really good teams vs we have beaten some really good teams. What is more important?

 

[CusefanATL]

How about our starting center be out half the season and our backup center missing almost the whole season. Will the committee take those injuries into account?

Neither are playing in the tournament. So it is not going to help us.

IF they are considered vital players, it would actually hurt us if anything.

 

[orangenirvana]

Prior to that statement you said no way the MVC gets two bids.

Two at-large bids.

 

[orangenirvana]

Updated the rankings for each of the 30 bubble teams. I consider 33 teams stone-cold locks, which leaves roughly 13 or so spots for these teams:

1. Wake Forest - 30.5 / 3-9 (1-7)
2. Xavier - 36.75 / 3-8 (0-6)
3. Arkansas - 37.75 / 3-6 (0-4)
4. VCU - 38.25 / *2-3 (1-2)
5. Northwestern - 41.25 / 4-6 (1-5)
6. Kansas State - 42.25 / 3-8 (2-5)
7. Illinois State - 44.75 / *1-1 (0-0)
8. Clemson - 45.25 / 4-11 (0-7)
9. Houston - 45.25 / 2-5 (0-4)
10. Vanderbilt - 45.5 / 5-7 (2-5)
11. Rhode Island - 46.25 / 2-3 (2-3)
12. Michigan State - 46.5 / 6-8 (2-7)
13. Virginia Tech - 47.25 / 4-7 (2-5)
14. Syracuse - 48.0 / *6-7 (3-4)
15. Indiana - 48.0 / 4-11 (2-6)
16. Middle Tennessee - 50.0 / 2-1 (0-1)
17. Seton Hall - 51.0 / 4-6 (1-4)
18. USC - 53.0 / *2-5 (2-5)
19. California - 53.5 / 1-7 (0-6)
20. Providence - 54.0 / 6-7 (2-5)
21. Texas Tech - 54.75 / *2-8 (2-4)
22. TCU - 55.75 / *2-10 (0-7)
23. Georgia - 58.25 / *1-8 (0-5)
24. Illinois - 63.25 / 5-8 (1-6)
25. Ohio State - 66.5 / 4-9 (1-6)
26. Tennessee - 67.0 / 2-10 (1-5)
27. BYU - 68.75 / 1-4 (1-3)
28. Iowa - 70.5 / 5-8 (2-5)
29. Pittsburgh - 71.5 / 3-11 (3-8)
30. Georgia Tech - 88.25 / 4-7 (4-4)

*all wins occurred on home floor

 

[orangenirvana]

Why is Michigan State considered such a lock? They are 18-13 and best wins are minnesota and Wisconsin.

They have lost to some really good teams vs we have beaten some really good teams. What is more important?

MSU and Syracuse both have six Top 50 wins which is impressive. However, all six of Syracuse's wins came at home. MSU has a win at #18 Minnesota and against #37 Wichita State on a neutral floor.

I don't quite consider them a lock just yet but a lot of crazy stuff would have to happen for them not to get in.

 

[bpo57]

Two at-large bids.

Who ever implied that league would get two at large bids?

 

[bpo57]

The "body of work" is such a flawed concept (more on that below) but as SU fans we'd better hope to hell they don't rigorously apply that concept. Our signature OOC win is against Monmouth and meanwhile we have OOC losses (none on the road) to #97, #117 and #137 in the RPI where all three teams are below .500. If somebody is applying the full body concept then we're toast.

The flaws behind the full body concept are a) not all wins are equal in the season. Teams can change radically over the course of the year. Weighing wins and losses equally from 3-4 months apart against such teams is beyond stupid. We don't have to look any further than SU. Beating SU was pretty easy to do in December. Get in line. It took awhile to meld two transfers with two freshmen. Does anybody think SJU and Gtown would come into the Dome and beat SU right now?

b) the full body of work concept favors the P5 at the expense of the little guy. The big guys have the scheduling power to do home and homes with each other so that they can boost their strength of schedule. SU is never gonna travel down to play MTSU or UNC-Wilimington. The little guys always have to play the big guys on their home floor.

It's pretty simple why the NCAA favors the big guys. They have the political power, they bring the most fans to the tournament sites and the most eyeballs to television.

 

[orangenirvana]

Who ever implied that league would get two at large bids?

You were close to implying that a couple days ago by saying the odds favor both WSU and ISU getting in even if Illinois State loses to SIU.

I never said "no way the MVC gets two bids." I've always maintained that Wichita State is dancing regardless of what they do in the MV tourney. And that Illinois State only gets in with a conference tourney championship.

Looks to me like you're not nearly as confident in your initial takes and have no interest in a bet.

 

[bpo57]

You were close to implying that a couple days ago by saying the odds favor both WSU and ISU getting in even if Illinois State loses to SIU.

I never said "no way the MVC gets two bids." I've always maintained that Wichita State is dancing regardless of what they do in the MV tourney. And that Illinois State only gets in with a conference tourney championship.

Looks to me like you're not nearly as confident in your initial takes and have no interest in a bet.

You're a little confused here. There is no need for two at large bids because the winner of the MVC tournament gets an automatic bid.

I'm plenty confident. I will bet you right now that both teams are getting in regardless of the outcome of the game today. Deal?

 

[bpo57]

One other thing that makes the full body of work concept a joke is the eye test. The Committee members admit they watch a lot of games and that the eye test comes into play. How could it not? But are these guys watching games in November/December or are they watching games in Feb/March?

 

[orangenirvana]

You're a little confused here. There is no need for two at large bids because the winner of the MVC tournament gets an automatic bid.

I'm plenty confident. I will bet you right now that both teams are getting in regardless of the outcome of the game today. Deal?

Even if SIU or Missouri State had won it?

Sure, I'm game.

 

[bpo57]

Even if SIU or Missouri State had won it?

Sure, I'm game.

So the bet is that the MVC will be getting two teams in regardless of today's outcome. I say yes and you say no. How much? $50 or $100. Your call.

 

[upperdeck]

how does Lunardi have Ill st and 11 and SU a 10 yet have them ahead of us in his last 8 in? unless he has them winning the league and Wichita the at large which would be strange to give it to your lower seeded team

 

[Chris02M]

how does Lunardi have Ill st and 11 and SU a 10 yet have them ahead of us in his last 8 in? unless he has them winning the league and Wichita the at large which would be strange to give it to your lower seeded team

illinois st is the #1 seed in their tourney

 

[bpo57]

illinois st is the #1 seed in their tourney

They tied Wichita State in the regular season and split their two games. Must have been a flip of the coin because there is no other way you could determine why one would be seeded over the other.

 

[OHIORANGES]

Palm just had Vandy & us in 1st 4 out (2:15 PM)

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[bpo57]

Jerry Palm just threw a whole lotta shade at SU. He relies on a lot of historical precedents but doesn't seem to be able to fathom that the bubble is really soft and that you still have to invite 68 teams.

 

[SUskibum]

Palm just had Vandy & us in 1st 4 out (2:15 PM)

Yep, said no team has gotten an at large with <3 wins away from home

Also said, our bad losses negate our good wins

This begs the question that I think determines our resume;

Which is more important... who you beat or who you lost to?