Bubble Watch - Last Weekend of Regular Season

[djorange1989]

Jerry Palm just threw a whole lotta shade at SU. He relies on a lot of historical precedents but doesn't seem to be able to fathom that the bubble is really soft and that you still have to invite 68 teams.

Anyone who would still have Cal in and would have Illinois as his first out after losing to Rutgers, is a moron

 

[djorange1989]

Yep, said no team has gotten an at large with <3 wins away from home

Also said, our bad losses negate our good wins

This begs the question that I think determines our resume;

Which is more important... who you beat or who you lost to?

Who you beat. Those teams make the dance. BC and St John's won't

 

[Eric15]

Did we drop a couple spots on Bracketmatrix even after winning yesterday? We are now the last 11 seed.

 

[djorange1989]

Did we drop a couple spots on Bracketmatrix even after winning yesterday? We are now the last 11 seed.

Probably because of the Wake and Vandy wins. We need to beat Miami to feel good

 

[SUskibum]

Who you beat. Those teams make the dance. BC and St John's won't

Agree.

Even looking at years where we didn't get it, it was almost always due to having a "solid" overall record with very few "bad" losses but virtually no "good" wins.

I am confident the selection committee cares most about how you fared against "tourney teams" aka top 10/50 etc...

But just for giggles, lets beat Miami anyways.

 

[Eric15]

Probably because of the Wake and Vandy wins. We need to beat Miami to feel good

I just can't get my head around people who thought we could lose out after beating Duke and still make the tourney.

 

[jncuse]

All I could figure is Palm looking to get fired by CBS and has a better gig lined up elsewhere

 

[djorange1989]

I just can't get my head around people who thought we could lose out after beating Duke and still make the tourney.

Those people were drinking vats of Orange Kool Aid

 

[djorange1989]

All I could figure is Palm looking to get fired by CBS and has a better gig lined up elsewhere

I hope he has a new barber lined up too. The Moe from the 3 Stooges look may be fitting for him but still a bad look :0

 

[jncuse]

Dick or not, Gregg Marshall is a great coach. He must have some P5 schools looking into him in B10 or B12.

 

[Cusefan0307]

If they put awake in over us I will be furious. Wake has a good RPI because they lost to good teams on the road.

 

[bpo57]

Dick or not, Gregg Marshall is a great coach. He must have some P5 schools looking into him in B10 or B12.

He's one of the ten highest paid coaches in America.

 

[bpo57]

Anyone who would still have Cal in and would have Illinois as his first out after losing to Rutgers, is a moron

And he still has Wichita State last four out.

 

[raf4488]

We have as many top 50 wins as the last 3 teams in Palm's bracket combined. Cal is 1-7!

 

[jdubs30]

Who you beat. Those teams make the dance. BC and St John's won't

Exactly. Up until this week, all Wake has done is beaten average/below average teams and lose to good teams. The tournament is full of good teams - why would you let a taeam in that had 12 chances to prove that they could beat a good team and never beat any of them?

I think Vandy and Cuse are in. I don't thinkCal is in.

 

[orangenirvana]

So the bet is that the MVC will be getting two teams in regardless of today's outcome. I say yes and you say no. How much? $50 or $100. Your call.

No. The bet is that Illinois State gets in if they lose. You say they will. I say they won't.

 

[bpo57]

No. The bet is that Illinois State gets in if they lose. You say they will. I say they won't.

OK how much?

 

[orangenirvana]

OK how much?

Check your PM.

 

[jncuse]

Comparison of Today's Matrix vs Matrix entering Saturday

Big Movers in Bold - more than 10%

Sunday vs Saturday

Marquette - 100% vs 94%
Seton Hall - 100% vs 94%
Wake - 100% vs 83% (Up 4 Spots - up 17%)
Michigan St - 98% vs 100%
Xavier 98% vs 92%
Providence 97% vs 100%
USC 92% vs 94%
Syracuse 83% vs 81% (Same Spot up 2%)
Vanderbilt 78% vs 30% (Up 3 Spots - up 48%)
Illinois St 76% vs 68%
------IN/OUT-------
Rhode Island 37% vs 47% (Same Spot - Down 10%)
Kansas St 22% vs 11% (Up 2 Spots -Up 11%)
Illinois 10% vs 70% (Down 5 Spots - Down 60%)
Cal 5% vs 15% (Down 1 Spot - Down 10%)
Iowa 3% vs 8%
Houston 2% vs 4%
Georgia 2% vs 8%
Georgia Tech 0% vs 2%
Clemson 0% vs 2%

I expect this to essentially hold into tourney week. We may get a few % more as Illinois St drops off some from today. But we generally held steady yesterday. But it's good to see that overall the top 4 of the bubble did incur 2 losses. It's not very deep pool of challengers.

I'm not exactly sure what Palm sees in Cal, but he is locked on.

 

[jncuse]

Did we drop a couple spots on Bracketmatrix even after winning yesterday? We are now the last 11 seed.

I think we held steady. I have 83% on new beackets and 3rd last in... yesterday I recorded it at 81% and 3rd last in.

 

[jncuse]

Good to see Illinois St lose by 20. It may sway somebody in the room who was still thinking about them.

 

[jncuse]

LOL at Illinois St extending the game with fouls down 18 with just below 4 minutes left in the game.

 

[Deano]

Palm will have them in..smh

 

[jdubs30]

Comparison of Today's Matrix vs Matrix entering Saturday

Big Movers in Bold - more than 10%

Sunday vs Saturday

Marquette - 100% vs 94%
Seton Hall - 100% vs 94%
Wake - 100% vs 83% (Up 4 Spots - up 17%)
Michigan St - 98% vs 100%
Xavier 98% vs 92%
Providence 97% vs 100%
USC 92% vs 94%
Syracuse 83% vs 81% (Same Spot up 2%)
Vanderbilt 78% vs 30% (Up 3 Spots - up 48%)
Illinois St 76% vs 68%
------IN/OUT-------
Rhode Island 37% vs 47% (Same Spot - Down 10%)
Kansas St 22% vs 11% (Up 2 Spots -Up 11%)
Illinois 10% vs 70% (Down 5 Spots - Down 60%)
Cal 5% vs 15% (Down 1 Spot - Down 10%)
Iowa 3% vs 8%
Houston 2% vs 4%
Georgia 2% vs 8%
Georgia Tech 0% vs 2%
Clemson 0% vs 2%

I expect this to essentially hold into tourney week. We may get a few % more as Illinois St drops off some from today. But we generally held steady yesterday. But it's good to see that overall the top 4 of the bubble did incur 2 losses. It's not very deep pool of challengers.

I'm not exactly sure what Palm sees in Cal, but he is locked on.

Ironic that Palm's last 4 in pretty much matches the matrix last 4 out.

Also - after those 4 out - it takes a HUGE drop. Iowa could still make a move - but barring a conference tourney fianls run I can't see Houston, UGA, or Clemson getting close. GaTech would prob get in if they make it to Friday in Brooklyn.

But we just have to focus on bid stealers and about 8 other teams. I think Marquette, Hall and PC are locked in. I think Vandy is in. I think MSU is close. But everyone else is fair game.


Also, Illinois State sucks - they shouldn't get in after this performance

 

[Chris02M]

I currently have us wake and Vanderbilt 3 of last 5 in