Bubble Watch - March 11

[jncuse]

Friday is perhaps the biggest day of the week from a Syracuse perspective - both up and down.

• A chance for a few teams behind us to get their first quality victory of the week
• The last chance for teams above us to get a bad loss or lose their only game of the week.

Teams listed based on the 47 brackets entered today into the Matrix
Bold plays Thursday, Underlined Italics are Done


IN per Matrix but not locks (out of 47)

Cincinnati (46) vs #58 UConn
St. Joes (46) vs #62 George Washington
St. Bonaventure (46) vs #63 Davidson
Oregon St (44)
VCU (41) vs #167 UMass
UConn (38) vs #41 Cincinnati
Wichita St (38)
Tulsa (30) vs #149 Memphis
St. Mary's (29)
Vanderbilt (25)

OUT

Teams that are Done or may only need one win for consideration
Syracuse (15)
Monmouth(14)
Michigan (8) vs #19 Indiana
Florida (7) vs #21 Texas A&M
Valparaiso (3)
George Washington (3) vs #33 St. Joe's
Ohio St (0) vs #14 Michigan St

Teams that need 2 wins for consideration
Temple vs #226 South Florida
Alabama vs #13 Kentucky

Bubble Busters (you want to win)
San Diego St vs #112 Nevada
Arkansas Little Rock (Bye until Saturday)

 

[Toga]

You said bubble? Never mind.

 

[jncuse]

The biggest games tommrrow are probably obvious. If the teams on the outside go 0-4 in those games, (that's asking for a lot) our chances go way up.

All of these teams could potentially enter the field with one win.

 

[Briancuse]

Who do we root for in Gw/St Joes game?

 

[jncuse]

In terms of the team's above us, here are the key games

It's better for Cincy to win. But it is not a total disaster if UConn wins. The key in my view is that the winner of this game wins the AAC.

I think we have to cheer for St. Joe's. I don't think a St. Joes loss knocks them behind us. I'm afraid of a scenario where GW wins and they both end up ahead of us.


Hopefully one of the other 3 teams playing that are above loses a game to a non tourney team allowing us to cleanly jump them.

 

[jncuse]

Who do we root for in Gw/St Joes game?

See my post above. I think it's St. Joes.

 

[EastCoast2]

Awesome work by jncuse thanks and keep it up!

 

[orangenirvana]

Our RPI just dropped to 71.

My hope is hanging by a thread.

 

[jdubs30]

Our RPI just dropped to 71.

My hope is hanging by a thread.

ND winning the ACC would help us out, RPI-wise. Same with A&M winning the SEC.

Unfortunately as it stands now, our other 2 quality OOC wins would be better off for us if they lost.

 

[orangenirvana]

ND winning the ACC would help us out, RPI-wise. Same with A&M winning the SEC.

Unfortunately as it stands now, our other 2 quality OOC wins would be better off for us if they lost.

I'm rooting for the Bonnies. I just think their 3-2 record vs. the Top 50 and strong RPI will get them in even with a loss today.

And I really think another Top 25 win will help Syracuse tremendously.

 

[orangenirvana]

Our RPI just dropped to 71.

My hope is hanging by a thread.

The good news - Pittsburgh's RPI dropped to 55. Which means our Top 50 record improved to 4-6. (Although our 51-100 record got worse).

 

[NineOneSeven]

Our RPI just dropped to 71.

My hope is hanging by a thread.

What's the lowest RPI to ever get in? At-large, I mean.

I dont really understand RPI, but I imagine playing BC twice really hurts it. The thing about that though is, it's not like BC was an out of conference team. Who really thought they would not win a single ACC game?

 

[rrlbees]

What's the lowest RPI to ever get in? At-large, I mean. I dont really understand RPI, but I imagine playing BC twice really hurts it. The thing about that though is, it's not like BC was an out of conference team. Who really thought they would not win a single ACC game?

USC in 2011 had an RPI in the 70's. Nobody since.

 

[orangenirvana]

What's the lowest RPI to ever get in? At-large, I mean.

I dont really understand RPI, but I imagine playing BC twice really hurts it. The thing about that though is, it's not like BC was an out of conference team. Who really thought they would not win a single ACC game?

I think Bilas mentioned that during one of the games yesterday. I think it was a team somewhere in the 70's a few years ago. But he pointed out that the Athletic Director was on the committee that year.

Here's an interesting article from last year about the committee's most recent use of the RPI and evidence that while it's used to a certain extent, it is losing relevance.

http://www.coloradoan.com/story/spo.../colorado-state-ncaa-tournament-rpi/24829067/

Excerpts...

That schedule CSU touted to open the season 14-0 was a farce; the committee didn't buy it.

It brilliantly manipulated the RPI in the Rams' favor. CSU played teams it knew would finish the season with a strong RPI, while also knowing the chance of a loss was almost nonexistent.

No team with an RPI in the top 30 had ever been left out of the 68-team NCAA tournament. He never dreamed CSU (29) would be the first. It was.

"We look at RPI really as an organizer in terms of top 50 and 100, but we spent a lot of time, more time than I remember, in comparing (RPI) in the swings to metrics such as the Sagarin, Ken Pom, BPI," Barnes said. "Those are used in the room as well and talked about quite extensively. We review those metrics each week, and that carried over to this week."

 

[orangenirvana]

Syracuse

RPI: 71
Sagarin: 40
KenPom: 41
BPI: 39

 

[Cusetime]

Who do we root for in Gw/St Joes game?

A GW win could knock St. Joe's to the first 4 out as they are the 4th seed in the A-10

 

[orangenirvana]

A GW win could knock St. Joe's to the first 4 out as they are the 4th seed in the A-10

I was thinking Saint Joe's over GW might be better for us but looking into it further I think you're right. I don't think GW is much of a threat - may have to win the A10 to get in. And Saint Joseph's isn't the lock I thought they were. Only two Top 50 wins (and one of them is Princeton). Good RPI but the others not so much.

Saint Joseph's

RPI - 32
Sagarin - 55
KenPom - 47
BPI - 48

A loss today could very well push them out.

 

[jncuse]

I think Bilas mentioned that during one of the games yesterday. I think it was a team somewhere in the 70's a few years ago. But he pointed out that the Athletic Director was on the committee that year.

Here's an interesting article from last year about the committee's most recent use of the RPI and evidence that while it's used to a certain extent, it is losing relevance.

http://www.coloradoan.com/story/spo.../colorado-state-ncaa-tournament-rpi/24829067/

Excerpts...

That schedule CSU touted to open the season 14-0 was a farce; the committee didn't buy it.

It brilliantly manipulated the RPI in the Rams' favor. CSU played teams it knew would finish the season with a strong RPI, while also knowing the chance of a loss was almost nonexistent.

No team with an RPI in the top 30 had ever been left out of the 68-team NCAA tournament. He never dreamed CSU (29) would be the first. It was.

"We look at RPI really as an organizer in terms of top 50 and 100, but we spent a lot of time, more time than I remember, in comparing (RPI) in the swings to metrics such as the Sagarin, Ken Pom, BPI," Barnes said. "Those are used in the room as well and talked about quite extensively. We review those metrics each week, and that carried over to this week."

Great find == I had never seen a committee member be so blatant in terms of how much they used rankngs other than RPI. The use of power rankings certainly will not hurt us.

I imagine it is used for outliers -- teams from middling conferneces like Wichita St / Monmouth / St. Mary's

It could also be used for outliers in terms of RPI who still have a competitive resume - like Syracuse who has a decent KP of 41. And it could hurt tems like Oregon St / GW / St. Bonaventure.

 

[orangenirvana]

Halftime scores

 

[orangenirvana]

I know we assumed uconn was out with a loss today but their ratings are really good.

RPI - 59
Sagarin - 34
KenPom - 29
BPI - 30

Average rank - 38

That's much better than most of the bubble teams.

Even with a loss today I could see them sneaking in to at least the First Four game.

 

[jncuse]

A bummer. It doesn't kill us but it brings it closer. We need something good from above the line to offset this now.

I think if the must win teams go 1-3 in their games, and we can get one positive result from above we will hold steady. It's a big ask but not unreasonable.

Someone asked in another thread what the % were to make it last night. I said wait 24 hours because many things are happening today. By the end of Friday the %'s could be anywhere from 2%-50%.

 

[bpo57]

At this point it's like waiting for a call from the Governor.

 

[jncuse]

I updated the Bracket Matrix totals for brackets subitted today only.

We started as the last team out.
As of right now, we would be 2nd last team out. Michigan will pass us in the matrix anyway.. who knows if the committee will think the same.

 

[Briancuse]

Whats the biggest game of the day for our hopes?

 

[rrlbees]

Whats the biggest game of the day for our hopes?

Cincy-Uconn