Bubble Watch - March 11

[jncuse]

I'm sure this has been asked and is obviously a looooooooong shot but UCONN, A&M, ND and Bonnie win their respective tourneys...that has to help us.

UConn and Bonnie winning would have advantages. But so does losing today. If they do win today, then they need to run the table.

 

[adk(roc)CUSE]

OMG! This uconn/Cincy game is nuts!

 

[CorduroyG]

i cant believe uconn hit that shot. the stars are not aligned in our favor

 

[NineOneSeven]

Are you kidding me

 

[NYCorange]

Holy Cow! Crazy!!!

 

[Briancuse]

i cant believe uconn hit that shot. the stars are not aligned in our favor

They never are.

 

[jncuse]

We really need at least 1 of VCU and Tulsa to suffer a bad loss tonight.

UConn has to go all the way now.

 

[jdubs30]

We really need at least 1 of VCU and Tulsa to suffer a bad loss tonight.

UConn has to go all the way now.

Wouldn't VCU be in regardless?

UConn and A&M both winning their conference tourneys would help our RPI.

It will come down to if the committee thinks we deserve it over the Valpos, St. Mary's and Monmouth's. History says yes.

The JB Factor is the one unknown variable here. And not one person in this forum (hell, even the "experts") know how they will look at it.

 

[rrlbees]

We really need at least 1 of VCU and Tulsa to suffer a bad loss tonight. UConn has to go all the way now.

I also wonder if not playing in it last year will factor in. A lot of players missed out last year for the sins of other people. Would they want to not punish them again if it's a tough call between 3-4 teams?

 

[jdubs30]

I also wonder if not playing in it last year will factor in. A lot of players missed out last year for the sins of other people. Would they want to not punish them again if it's a tough call between 3-4 teams?

That'd be nice but I doubt they will do us any favors

 

[orangenirvana]

Wouldn't VCU be in regardless?

Very good question. Their 'big wins' are lacking but they have healthy index rankings: average of 34 between Sagarin, KenPom and BPI. (Syracuse's average rank is 40).

 

[orangenirvana]

 

[jdubs30]

I don't think UConn is as much of a killer as people think.

OSU and Florida are done. Both Tech's yesterday. Hopefully Tulsa tonight and Temple/Michigan tomorrow

 

[cuseguy]

We're projected to host Bucknell in a first round NIT game at the Dome.

 

[orangenirvana]

 

[orangenirvana]

 

[pearl31]

View attachment 57430

I actually would have preferred Houston winning this game. They weren't even actually on the bubble - would have had to at least gotten to aac champ game, if not win it - now we're relying on either Memphis or Tulane to knock out Tulsa.
Would really be good if Memphis could somehow beat them tonight, cuz I don't think Tulane will do it tomorrow

 

[jdubs30]

Tulane winning has to hurt Tulsa -- right? I can't see them betaing Tulane tomorrow as a huge resume boost

 

[jdubs30]

I actually would have preferred Houston winning this game. They weren't even actually on the bubble - would have had to at least gotten to aac champ game, if not win it - now we're relying on either Memphis or Tulane to knock out Tulsa.
Would really be good if Memphis could somehow beat them tonight, cuz I don't think Tulane will do it tomorrow

How much credit will Tulsa get for beating Tulane though?

 

[pearl31]

How much credit will Tulsa get for beating Tulane though?

you're right, that win will essentially do nothing for them, but it basically becomes a clear path to the champ game - which might be enough to get them in
jncuse what you got on this one?

 

[MSOrange]

Josh Pastner is right around Tom Crean territory as far as coaches I have the least confidence in when you need their teams to win.

 

[jncuse]

This week and My Assessment

Friday was the key day -- it had to be. Many of our competitors would only play the first game today, and teams from the outside could only get their first big win today. I would almost prefer the ACC only ends Sunday for this reason.

Given that most P5+1 went Chalk, no one can play themselves in this week other than possibly Michigan (in the P5+1) Just Michigan -- not bad, but I really thought that the number could be zero. It was not a bad result, and not big like some said it would be (Hello ESPN)

The bubble busters from smaller conferences hurt much more this year -- another stinger came on Monday night with St. Mary's.

The 3rd stinger of the week came with Uconn beating Cincy. This was absolutely not the better result for us.

Last night I predicted that our probability at the end of today would be between 2% to 50%. That was how big today was - such a big range was needed. It could have been worse (say Florida or Ohio St had won), but the Michigan and UConn games were real negatives. If those 2 had not happened I would have proclaimed we were 50/50 on Sunday. There is still a chance for a St. Bonnie or Tulsa loss tonight that would help a bit and I may need to adjust my % below.

But at the end of the day I settle on 20%, which is not much different than I expected at the beginning of the week:

• There was a bit of chaos this week. Vanderbilt had a bad loss. Oregon St, who I am not impressed with at all, won against Arizona St. Big Deal. They stick around. So I have Vanderbilt, Michigan, Oregon St, as P5 teams that the committee may think we are better than. They may think we are not.
• Many of the teams ahead of us will be AAC, A-10, Small Conference Schools... leagues that have been shafted from time to time.
• The JB factor (only in terms of breaking a tie with someone)

There is enough chaos for fans to at least watch Selection Sunday. I will continue to follow the bubble tomorrow because it is something that interests me, but after tonight there is very little that will really shift things positively for us -- UConn beating Temple is the only meaningful one I can think of. Of course there are LSU and San Diego St that could mess things up more.

But it is clear at this point that we will be nowhere near 50/50 because of Michigan and UConn today. And that is fine, we put ourselves in this position and deserve our fate.

Go Orange.

 

[jncuse]

you're right, that win will essentially do nothing for them, but it basically becomes a clear path to the champ game - which might be enough to get them in
jncuse what you got on this one?

I suspect they are right on the line - the next 2 wins mean nothing, and the would lose some spots for losing to only a modest team in the AAC final.

If the commitee has Syracuse and Tulsa as a tie, then Tulsa needs to win the AAC to stay ahead.

 

[Chris02M]

This week and My Assessment

Friday was the key day -- it had to be. Many of our competitors would only play the first game today, and teams from the outside could only get their first big win today. I would almost prefer the ACC only ends Sunday for this reason.

Given that most P5+1 went Chalk, no one can play themselves in this week other than possibly Michigan (in the P5+1) Just Michigan -- not bad, but I really thought that the number could be zero. It was not a bad result, and not big like some said it would be (Hello ESPN)

The bubble busters from smaller conferences hurt much more this year -- another stinger came on Monday night with St. Mary's.

The 3rd stinger of the week came with Uconn beating Cincy. This was absolutely not the better result for us.

Last night I predicted that our probability at the end of today would be between 2% to 50%. That was how big today was - such a big range was needed. It could have been worse (say Florida or Ohio St had won), but the Michigan and UConn games were real negatives. If those 2 had not happened I would have proclaimed we were 50/50 on Sunday. There is still a chance for a St. Bonnie or Tulsa loss tonight that would help a bit and I may need to adjust my % below.

But at the end of the day I settle on 20%, which is not much different than I expected at the beginning of the week:

• There was a bit of chaos this week. Vanderbilt had a bad loss. Oregon St, who I am not impressed with at all, won against Arizona St. Big Deal. They stick around. So I have Vanderbilt, Michigan, Oregon St, as P5 teams that the committee may think we are better than. They may think we are not.
• Many of the teams ahead of us will be AAC, A-10, Small Conference Schools... leagues that have been shafted from time to time.
• The JB factor (only in terms of breaking a tie with someone)

There is enough chaos for fans to at least watch Selection Sunday. I will continue to follow the bubble tomorrow because it is something that interests me, but after tonight there is very little that will really shift things positively for us -- UConn beating Temple is the only meaningful one I can think of. Of course there are LSU and San Diego St that could mess things up more.

But it is clear at this point that we will be nowhere near 50/50 because of Michigan and UConn today. And that is fine, we put ourselves in this position and deserve our fate.

Go Orange.

i think are chances are slightly better at 33% with temple loss tomorrow or tulsa loss tonight or tommorrow increasing it to 40%. Are best shot is uconn winning the tournament. AAC needs to max out at 3 teams in and cincy and uconn are likely 2

 

[bpo57]

This week and My Assessment

Friday was the key day -- it had to be. Many of our competitors would only play the first game today, and teams from the outside could only get their first big win today. I would almost prefer the ACC only ends Sunday for this reason.

Given that most P5+1 went Chalk, no one can play themselves in this week other than possibly Michigan (in the P5+1) Just Michigan -- not bad, but I really thought that the number could be zero. It was not a bad result, and not big like some said it would be (Hello ESPN)

The bubble busters from smaller conferences hurt much more this year -- another stinger came on Monday night with St. Mary's.

The 3rd stinger of the week came with Uconn beating Cincy. This was absolutely not the better result for us.

Last night I predicted that our probability at the end of today would be between 2% to 50%. That was how big today was - such a big range was needed. It could have been worse (say Florida or Ohio St had won), but the Michigan and UConn games were real negatives. If those 2 had not happened I would have proclaimed we were 50/50 on Sunday. There is still a chance for a St. Bonnie or Tulsa loss tonight that would help a bit and I may need to adjust my % below.

But at the end of the day I settle on 20%, which is not much different than I expected at the beginning of the week:

• There was a bit of chaos this week. Vanderbilt had a bad loss. Oregon St, who I am not impressed with at all, won against Arizona St. Big Deal. They stick around. So I have Vanderbilt, Michigan, Oregon St, as P5 teams that the committee may think we are better than. They may think we are not.
• Many of the teams ahead of us will be AAC, A-10, Small Conference Schools... leagues that have been shafted from time to time.
• The JB factor (only in terms of breaking a tie with someone)

There is enough chaos for fans to at least watch Selection Sunday. I will continue to follow the bubble tomorrow because it is something that interests me, but after tonight there is very little that will really shift things positively for us -- UConn beating Temple is the only meaningful one I can think of. Of course there are LSU and San Diego St that could mess things up more.

But it is clear at this point that we will be nowhere near 50/50 because of Michigan and UConn today. And that is fine, we put ourselves in this position and deserve our fate.

Go Orange.

I think the A-10 developments were a clear negative for SU as the top four all advanced (if Bonnies hold on to current lead) and are very likely to all get invited. SU needed the Bonnies to lose and maybe SJU too.

Michigan is better than 50/50 imo to get in but would be a lock if they beat Purdue tomorrow.

LSU is a bit of a long shot but they're still alive in the SEC tourney.