Bubble Watch - Monday to Wednesday Tourney Week

[jncuse]

Not many games this week until Wednesday. Will go day after day after this.

I am including what each team needs to do in my opinion to feel fairly safe)

Current Matrix Standings (based on 71 brackets)

Wake Forest 100% (Beat Boston College, small chance it needs to beat Virginia Tech)
Michigan St (may be a lock but should beat Penn St to be safe)
Providence 99% (should be safe, losing to Creighton should not hurt them)
Xavier 96% (Beat Depaul should be in good shape, small chance need to beat Butler)
USC 96% (Beat Washington, don't think UCLA will matter)
Vanderbilt - 87% (Beat Texas AM, don't think Florida will mattter)
Syracuse - 80% (Possibly no wins, but good chance it needs to beat Miami)
Rhode Island - 39% (Beat St Bonaventure, Dayton)
----- IN/OUT --
Illinois St - 38%
Kansas St - 32% (Beat Baylor in First Round of Big 12)
Iowa - 11% (Beat Indiana,Wisconsin and it may be enough, Beat Maryland it is a lock)
Illinois - 10% (Beat Michigan, Purdue it may be enough, Beat Minnesota it is a lock)
Cal - 4% (Beat Oregon St, Utah, Oregon)
Houston - 3% (Win American Tourney)
Georgia - 1% (Beat Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina)
Clemson - 1% (Beat NC St, Duke, Louisville)

Others
Indiana (Beat Iowa, Beat Wisconsin and it may be enough, Beat Maryland and it is a lock)
Georgia Tech (Beat Pitt, Beat Virginia, Beat Notre Dame)

Bubble Busters of Real Concern
Middle Tennessee St
AAC Tourney
A-10 Tourney


--------


Good Summary Post by JDubs from another thread that I am posting here


So we've been talking about these bubble teams that are battling for at-large spots with - but we haven't really looked at who they're playing this week.

ACC:
Teams on the bubble: Wake, Clemson, GaTech

Wake: BC, VaTech, FSU
GaTech: Pitt, UVA, ND
Clemson: NC State, Duke, Louisville

Of the 3, Wake is closest to a bid, however, they face the most dangerous first game. BC is a lose/lose - winning that game will not move the needle for them, but lose it could end their shot. I would think if Wake wins their first 2 games, they'd get in. GaTech gets a top 70 RPI team to start, but they probably will have to beat Pitt and UVA to get back in the conversation. Clemson will have to win those first 3 games at a minimum - but if they do, that's 2 top 15 wins which is massive. (I'm not going to discuss us, we all know what we have to do).

Obviously it'd be better for us of all 3 of these teams lose early.

A10:
Teams on the bubble: URI

URI: St. Bonaventure, Dayton

I'm not a fan of URI's resume, but they are very much alive. They will most likely get St. Bonvaneture in their first game. The Bonnies are solid, but will not help URI. In the semi finals, they'd most likely get Dayton, who's already beaten them twice this year. I think it's safe to say that if URI gets to the A10 finals and beats Dayton along with the way, they'd be in.


American:
Teams on the bubble: Houston

Houston: UConn, Cincinnati

Houston will have to make it to the AAC finals at the least. Anything short of that they'll be out. Even then it's a stretch though - I don't think beating 120+ RPI and Cincinnati would catapult Houston into the field either. I think they need the automatic bid

Big12:
Teams on the bubble: Kansas State

Kansas State: Baylor, WVU

Kansas State is fairly straightforward. They open with Baylor - if they win that game, they're in, period. If they lose that game, they are probably in the same place they are today.

Big East:
Teams on the bubble: Xavier, Marquette, Providence

X: DePaul, Butler
Marquette: Seton Hall, Nova
PC: Creighton, Butler/X

I think the BE will get at least 6 teams in. I think Hall is a lock at this point and I think Marquette/PC are pretty close to locks. If any of those 3 teams lose, it won't damage their resume. Xavier is in a freefall without Sumner, a loss to DePaul would end their chances. Beating DePaul and losing to Butler will pretty much keep them where they are now. They could get in, but other teams could jump them. If they beat DePual and Butler, they're a lock.

Big Ten:
Teams on the bubble: MSU, Iowa, Indiana

MSU: Nebraska, Minnesota
Iowa: Indiana, Wisconsin
Indiana: Iowa, Wisconsin
Illinois: Michigan, Purdue

Illinois is a team that snuck into the bubble talk late - however they drew a tough road. Michigan is on fire of late, with B10 regular season champ Purdue waiting in the wings. Beating Michigan would be fairly big for Illinois and could probably put them right at the cut line - then beating Purdue would obviously place them in the field. But if Illinois loses the opener to Michigan, I think that's it for them.

I think MSU is safe. If they lose to Nebraska/PSU in their opener though, they might be vulnerable. Iowa/Indiana is interesting - I think we'd prefer Indiana to win this game and then lose to Wiscy. However it's clear the loser of Iowa/IU is done; and if the winner of that game loses to Wisconsin they are probably done as well - but the way Wisconsin has been playing, that's not guarantee. Iowa could sneak in with 2 wins.

Pac12:
Teams on the bubble: Cal, USC

Cal: Oregon State, Utah
USC: Washington, UCLA

Oregon State might be the worst P5 team. Similar to Wake, this game won't help Cal at all. A loss would end them and a win wouldn't boost their resume. They'll have to beat Utah to get some movement. USC is probably in the field right now, going 1-1 in the Pac12 tourney won't change that. However a loss to Washington would probably knock them out; while a win vs. UCLA would lock them in.

SEC:
Teams on the bubble: Vandy

This is pretty simple - we want the top 4 seeds to be in the semi-finals. We don't want a team like Bama, Tennessee, UGA, etc. making a surprising run to the finals. As long as UK, Florida, Arkansas and South Carolina are the last 4 teams standing - this tournament won't have much of an effect. Vandy openswith A&M then gets Florida - I still think Vandy is in unless they lose to A&M




Obviously we want to avoid bid stealers. But as we can see - many of our bubble buddies have tough tournament draws. If we take care of business we will be fine - but there are also chances for teams like Iowa and Cal to really solidify their resume.

 

[jncuse]

This is a game tonight that we might want to follow a bit. BYU would be a longshot to get an at-large after beating Gonzaga and if they bera St. Mary's, but they have had a few favourable decisions in the past 15 year. So hopefully they lose so we don't need to worry about the small probability.

 

[pearl31]

This is a game tonight that we might want to follow a bit. BYU would be a longshot to get an at-large after beating Gonzaga and if they bera St. Mary's, but they have had a few favourable decisions in the past 15 year. So hopefully they lose so we don't need to worry about the small probability.

View attachment 90943

- or worry about them beating zags in the final for the autobid

 

[jdubs30]

St. Marys vs. Gonzaga in the WCC Final - so no bid stealer there. Pretty good start!

 

[jdubs30]

Also jncuse - I missed one team on my list, so if you can add them that'd be awesome

Big Ten:

Illinois: Michigan, Purdue

Illinois is a team that snuck into the bubble talk late - however they drew a tough road. Michigan is on fire of late, with B10 regular season champ Purdue waiting in the wings. Beating Michigan would be fairly big for Illinois and could probably put them right at the cut line - then beating Purdue would obviously place them in the field. But if Illinois loses the opener to Michigan, I think that's it for them.

 

[MGP]

This morning's ESPN Bubble Watch has moved us to "teams that should be in" fwiw
as per Brennan:

Syracuse [18-13 (10-8), RPI: 77, SOS: 61] Syracuse will play Miami Wednesday in the ACC tournament's 8/9 game. That the Orange finished with a No. 8 seed is a pretty good indication of just how much better they were over the final six weeks of the season (when they beat Virginia, Duke and Florida State) than they were early on (when they lost to Boston College, UConn, Georgetown and St. John's, by 33 points). Thanks to its seed, Syracuse doesn't have to worry about taking a bad loss. It will either lose to Miami and be done, or beat Miami and play North Carolina. It should get the call on Selection Sunday either way.

 

[jncuse]

Also jncuse - I missed one team on my list, so if you can add them that'd be awesome

Big Ten:

Illinois: Michigan, Purdue

Illinois is a team that snuck into the bubble talk late - however they drew a tough road. Michigan is on fire of late, with B10 regular season champ Purdue waiting in the wings. Beating Michigan would be fairly big for Illinois and could probably put them right at the cut line - then beating Purdue would obviously place them in the field. But if Illinois loses the opener to Michigan, I think that's it for them.

Added by a moderator earlier today.

Thanks to whomever that was.

 

[jncuse]

This morning's ESPN Bubble Watch has moved us to "teams that should be in" fwiw
as per Brennan:

Syracuse [18-13 (10-8), RPI: 77, SOS: 61] Syracuse will play Miami Wednesday in the ACC tournament's 8/9 game. That the Orange finished with a No. 8 seed is a pretty good indication of just how much better they were over the final six weeks of the season (when they beat Virginia, Duke and Florida State) than they were early on (when they lost to Boston College, UConn, Georgetown and St. John's, by 33 points). Thanks to its seed, Syracuse doesn't have to worry about taking a bad loss. It will either lose to Miami and be done, or beat Miami and play North Carolina. It should get the call on Selection Sunday either way.

I think if we are where Lunardi has on his s-curve, 5th on his s-curve (And I assume Brennan may have us there as well), we are probably safe with a loss.

But if we are 2nd or 3rd on the s-curve, we are more likely to get caught,

 

[jncuse]

Today's games:

It is only the ACC that has games worth noting today as it is the only major conference starting today:

For Clemson it comes down to beating Duke and Louisville in round 2 and 3. They have to get by this one first.

Wake may or not be locked after this win today. I am of the opinion they only need to avoid a bad loss to get in (this is a pure nuisance game for them today). Others feel that they need to win this one and then at Virginia Tech. Either way they must win today.

Georgia Tech probably has to take out Pitt, Virginia, and likely Florida St. I guess they have a small chance after beating Virginia, but it would be unexpected in my view.

It's a long road for these two - stop it early.

 

[Ryand877]

Today's games:

It is only the ACC that has games worth noting today as it is the only major conference starting today:

View attachment 91031
View attachment 91033




For Clemson it comes down to beating Duke and Louisville in round 2 and 3. They have to get by this one first.

Wake may or not be locked after this win today. I am of the opinion they only need to avoid a bad loss to get in (this is a pure nuisance game for them today). Others feel that they need to win this one and then at Virginia Tech. Either way they must win today.

Georgia Tech probably has to take out Pitt, Virginia, and likely Florida St. I guess they have a small chance after beating Virginia, but it would be unexpected in my view.

It's a long road for these two - stop it early.

Although unlikely, is Wake Forest out if they lose today? I would think yes. Go Eagles!

 

[jncuse]

Although unlikely, is Wake Forest out if they lose today? I would think yes. Go Eagles!

I think it likely would -- unless the bubble does really bad this week

 

[Cusefan0307]

I pray BC can win today.

 

[orangenirvana]

Current Matrix Standings (based on 71 brackets)

USC 96%

 

[jncuse]

View attachment 91108

Since they have such an easy schedule they are hard to analyze because of lack of quantity. But overall I see no issues with their various win components.

But 3-2 vs 51-100 is satisfactory
2-5 vs top 25 is actually fairly good (2 wins total is nice, and the % is typical for a bubble team)
Since they played nobody from 26-50, do we dismiss them? With 2 top 25 wins they demonstrated they could beat good teams.

They have 1 bad loss at Arizona St. Not out of line.

Their KP ranking is a bit stinky at 61 as is their BPI at 58.

I don't know if they are above us, but they are an in on my book. They are not like Cal.

 

[orangenirvana]

Since they have such an easy schedule they are hard to analyze because of lack of quantity. But overall I see no issues with their various win components.

But 3-2 vs 51-100 is satisfactory
2-5 vs top 25 is actually fairly good (2 wins total is nice, and the % is typical for a bubble team)
Since they played nobody from 26-50, do we dismiss them? With 2 top 25 wins they demonstrated they could beat good teams.

They have 1 bad loss at Arizona St. Not out of line.

Their KP ranking is a bit stinky at 61 as is their BPI at 58.

I don't know if they are above us, but they are an in on my book. They are not like Cal.

Yeah I won't be protesting in the streets about their inclusion - I just personally think there are many more teams with better resumes and am puzzled by the 96%. Somewhere around 50-60% would make more sense.

The knock against Syracuse is that none of their six Top 50 wins occurred on the road. But none of USC's two Top 50 wins occurred on the road, either. They have one Top 100 road win which came against #88 Texas A&M compared to Syracuse's #66 Clemson.

They're my 6th team out right now. I'm looking forward to seeing what the committee thinks of them.

 

[jncuse]

Updated Matrix Totals below - There is no reason for it to be changing, but perhaps some are rethinking things. It is the advantage we have here, some good bloggers out there have, or the committee itself has over someone like Lunardi and Palm. They can rethink things and chance their mind.

We can drastically change our position after re-thinking things. For example it took me a while to abandon Ilinois St as a 50/50 candidate... but I finally did. Lunardi and Palm have to stay fairly committed to their calls.

Today's Matrix (58 Brackets)

Providence - 98%
Xavier - 95%
USC - 93%
Vanderbilt - 86%
Syracuse - 86% (up from 80%)
Rhode Island - 43%
------ IN/OUT ----
Illinois St - 38%
Kansas St - 29%
Iowa - 12%
Illinois - 10%
Cal - 5%
Houston - 3%
Georgia - 2%

Syracuse moved the most of all the teams.

Seems like a few people when they look a little deeper at things now that things are "static" for a few days are switching over to Syracuse. Of course the matrix consensus is not the Committee, but I did find it interesting to see our support is going up.

 

[pearl31]

It is interesting - we seemed to go down a tad in the immediate aftermath of the GaTech blowout and now back up... no rhyme or reason, other than re-thinking like you say or possibly people submitting new brackets that hadn't been submitted immediately after our game... but yes, good to see the uptick today

 

[Cusefan0307]

I was looking at last years bracket matrix and we weren't even on half the brackets at the end. Tulsa was on 1. Who could be teams like that this year?

 

[jncuse]

I was looking at last years bracket matrix and we weren't even on half the brackets at the end. Tulsa was on 1. Who could be teams like that this year?

I think there will be less differences this year. Last year was a much more complex bubble in terms of different types of teams.

Look at the teams that had more mentions than Syracuse last year and missed.

There are no similar team this year that are above the line except Rhode Island. Everybody else above the line is P5+BE.

I guess the easiest potential comparison for Tulsa would be Houston. But Tulsa was very unusual, There have been teams around 10% that got in but never teams that were at 1%. I wouldn't expect a repeat.

 

[jncuse]

Things start to pick up intensity tomorrow. Thursday and Friday should be the biggest days however.

Syracuse = Could be a must win game tomorrow... or it may not be. Let's just win. But the slight chance we lose, its worth watching other games because maybe we still slip in,

Clemson - As crazy as it sounds, there is a slight chance that Clemson goes over the top with a win at Duke. Although I would expect that would not be at our expense, as it would show strong respect for the ACC teams that we beat. This would give them 5 top 50 wins, including 3 on road/neutral floors, and only 1 sub 100 loss.

So tomorrow - Go Ratface.

This is game 1 for Cal. Oregon St may be the worst P5 team. I think they need to win this, Utah and then have Oregon as put them over the top.

 

[jncuse]

Ohio St? Well Technically if they beat Rutgers, Northwestern, Maryland, Wisconsin, and lose the B10 title game they probably get into the tournament. That could give them 7 top 50 wins. But's that's quite a road -- we have a few days to worry about it. Even when unlikely, best to end it early.

I think Wake is in no matter what, but that is not the thought of all. Some view this like our Miami game. Go Buzz.

At 16-14 TCU is totally off the radar and deservedly so. Does beating Oklahoma, Kansas, and Iowa St before losing the B12 final get them in the discussion again. Probably. Similar to Ohio St let's just end this one before it goes anywhere.

 

[jncuse]

Pure nuisance game for Xavier-- but the way they have been playing they are capable of losing. I think a bad loss puts them in serious trouble, They may be able to survive winning only this game this week, but may need the next to feel really safe.

See above - exact same situation as Xavier.

.

 

[jdubs30]

Agree with all your assessments.

The thing about tomorrow is - besides our game - there is no "clinching" game on the board besides probably Wake. A few teams could definitely hurt themselves, but nothing that happens tomorrow (besides us losing) scares me yet. Like KState/Baylor on Thursday would lock in KState - but there's no game of that magnitude tomorrow.

 

[jncuse]

Deleted post... only 13 hours from game time. No mention of a certain outcome.

 

[Chris02M]

i think if we beat miami and wake loses to va tech you will see some brackets flip us