17 days ago John Gillon hit the spectacular buzzer beater to beat Duke. At that time there was a lot of optomism on the board. We felt great about our tourney chances. Many thought we were in if we just win one game against Georgia Tech or had very good chances. I was a little more reserved at 50/50. Just being cautious but I thought it could be up to 80% in 10 days time if things went right by the time we played Tech.
4 days later we played at Louisville. We predictably lost. This was not a problem. We would have to wait another 6 days to play Georgia Tech.
But in those 10 days between Duke and Georgia Tech the bubble seemed to take their head out of their collective asses. Vanderbilt made a sudden move up. Wake Forest made a big move with 2 top wins in the last week(Louisville and at Virginia Tech). Providence, Seton Hall and Marquette all seemed to benefit from some weakness from Creighton, Xavier and Butler, which made the Big East a 7 team league instead of a 5 ir 6 team league . Illinois started to make a serious move.
By the time we played at 4:00 on Saturday afternoon things had changed for the worse. A week earlier I had hoped to say this win would likely do it. But too much had happened. Either way it was a must win game. And we did what we needed to do in convincing fashion.
We had some good news on the last Sunday of the season when Illinois St lost to Wichita St. So we entered the tournament as the 2nd last team in on the bubble matrix. Very uncertain, but we could really use that game against Miami.
And we lost that game to Miami. Things are going to have to go good this week. And on Wednesday and Thursday things did not go well. We could have use some teams having a bad loss. But none did. Instead Xavier got a big win. And teams like TCU, Georgia, Cal, and Indiana all moved forward. And then to finish the day on Thursday Kansas St beat Baylor. We were now the last team in. And there was a number of new potential chasers. Some posters wanted to call things over on Thursday.
But it was not over. We were just hanging by a string. And then everything went very good on Friday. All the challengers behind us faded. Kansas St could not follow up the Baylor win. USC could not get a big win. The bubble busters stayed intact. Things were looking up as we entered today.
Today was all about avoiding bubble busters. And we got all we needed - Nevada won, Middle Tenn St won, the AAC went as planned. We may have avoided the entire tournament season without one bubble buster. And that is exactly what we needed after Thursday.
So 17 days later after that John Gillon shot, we are still in the same position in my view. I would say still at around 50/50.
Not much of a schedule for tomorrow. There is one game - Rhode Island vs VCU and as was debated today it's not clear who is the better team to lose.
It's now pretty simple. The bubble is pretty much done.
7 teams. 5 spots
VCU/Rhode Island loser
Wake Forest
Syracuse
USC
Kansas St
Illinois St
Providence (or other BET team)
I don't view Illinois St as a serious contender but as they still have about 25% on the matrix I think they should be included.
So Sunday is not a day for much watching. Just waiting.
Go Orange.
