Bubble Watch - Week of Feb 27 to Mar 4

[jncuse]

As we enter the weekend this would appear to be the matrix rankings -- note I am trying to adjust for only recent submissions on the matrix, so it will not be a direct match

Last 5 to 8 in
Syracuse
Michigan
Cincinnati
Tulsa

Last 4 In (all fairly close):
Oregon St
Vanderbilt
Butler
St Bonaventure

Last 4 out (all fairly close to each other)
Alabama
VCU
Gonzaga
George Washington
Temple (as at large)

Next Out - After those 5 teams the pickings are really weak -- I will only note the teams that have a chance to play themselves into contention before the conference tournament. For example Ohio St can still get 2 top wins over the next week.


Games Involving Teams On the Outside Only

Seedings based on Matrix, but I adjusted for only recent submissions for teams around the line.

Both teams are in the last 4 out -- winner would probably be in

Florida St (LONGSHOT) needs to wins it next two against Syracuse and Notre Dame, and beat at least one good team in the ACC I would think.

Perhaps the biggest game of the day. Vandy has a home game to jump in the tournament.

Gonzaga really needs this one -- they are currently 0-3 against BYU and St. Mary's. Cheer for BYU -- even with a win, they should have to many holes to be able to get an at-large.

 

[jncuse]

Games for Teams that are Currently Out Only (part 2)

LSU is dead, but not officially dead. If it sweeps the last 3 games it's back in the conversation.

Temple is a last team out, IMO. They need to be careful today -- this would be an awful loss.

 

[jncuse]

Games involving the last 8 teams currently in (Part 1)

An expected win - not a game changer for Cincy (in the last 5-8 group). Cincy plays Houston and SMU next week, so they could easily fall back over the next week.

A good start for Butler (last 4 in) in a road game that is not easy for a bubble team. Butler has a chance to make itself solid next week with a home game against Seton Hall.

That line just keeps coming down...

St, Bonnie (last 4 in) shouldn't lose this one. The big game for them this week is St. Joes at home. Perfect timing to get a home game against a quality opponent.

 

[jncuse]

Games for teams in the last 8 in (part 2)

Alabama is a last 4 in -- should not lose this one. They can't really add to their resume anymore, so they better not lose to Arkansas or Georgia next week.

Are they an at-large or a bubble buster. Either way this is not a loss they want.

 

[jncuse]

Team that has been completely ignored but still has a shot.

This is a big if, but if Tech beats Louisville and Pitt next week, it will be 9-9 in the ACC, with an RPI probably in the mid 50's.

 

[jncuse]

Teams that are safely in (above last 8 in) that could still fall out

Providence should slide in (8-9 seed right now), but if for some reason it loses to Depaul or St. John's it starts to sweat

Florida is a 9 seed, but if it loses today to LSU, and Kentucky on Monday, they are certainly sweating.

 

[jncuse]

Potential Bubble Buster teams we want to lose

 

[jncuse]

Keeping it Simple

I would call it a great day if the following 3 happens:

1. Syracuse beats NC St
2. Kentucky beats Vanderbilt
3. BYU beats Gonzaga

#2 and #3 would really weaken the outside 4. Anything else good that happens is gravy.

Alternatively if the above 3 all go the wrong way (especially #1) it would be a horrible day.

 

[jncuse]

And the disgusting thought of the day -- today it is best to cheer for Kentucky and Georgetown.

 

[jncuse]

Keeping it Simple

I would call it a great day if the following 3 happens:

1. Syracuse beats NC St
2. Kentucky beats Vanderbilt
3. BYU beats Gonzaga

#2 and #3 would really weaken the outside 4. Anything else good that happens is gravy.

Alternatively if the above 3 all go the wrong way (especially #1) it would be a horrible day.

The most important #1 is down. As silly as it sounds we can go 0-3 the rest of the way, and I can see a few scenarios where we get in as the last teams out could potentially quite weak.

Nothing overly positive or bad so far today. We could have had two positives if Butler had lost in OT to Georgetown, or if UCF had given a bad loss to Temple.

 

[MSOrange]

The most important #1 is down. As silly as it sounds we can go 0-3 the rest of the way, and I can see a few scenarios where we get in as the last teams out could potentially quite weak.

Nothing overly positive or bad so far today. We could have had two positives if Butler had lost in OT to Georgetown, or if UCF had given a bad loss to Temple.

Having to cheer for Kentucky is really screwing with my mind!

 

[jncuse]

St. Bonaventure down 16 at home against 12-15 UMass. That would be a brutal loss for them. Good / not so good for us, hard to tell...

 

[jncuse]

Note - the matrix was updated early this afternoon, so I made some slight adjustment to my first post. It appears that Vanderbilt would be a last team in, and Alabama a last team out entering today.

 

[jncuse]

:rolling:Rutgers was down 30 at halftine today at Northwestern. Now 0-16, with the two closest losses being 7 and 9 points.

No relevance to thread at all, but these exploits deserve mentioning.

 

[longtimefan]

:rolling:Rutgers was down 30 at halftine today at Northwestern. Now 0-16, with the two closest losses being 7 and 9 points.

No relevance to thread at all, but these exploits deserve mentioning.

And BC is trying to match the RU-Rahs with an 0-for league record. And, BC was also winless in the football conference. (They are good on skates, though.)

 

[jncuse]

Vandy and St. Bonnie's in 1 point games, as we get into the last 10 minutes of their games.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

St. Bonaventure down 16 at home against 12-15 UMass. That would be a brutal loss for them. Good / not so good for us, hard to tell...

 

[SoBeCuse]

Vandy probably very comfortably in now.

 

[jncuse]

I agree with SobeCuse that Vanderbilt is comfortably in as of now. However, they still have to finish this off -- not a lock yet. Losses at Tennessee and Texas AM next week would put them back to the outside.

Nice comeback win for St. Bonaventure. Turning into a day of survival for all bubble teams.

Games to watch right now:

• A bad Auburn team up 7 at Alabama with 16 minutes to go (that's a bad loss). Would be nice if one of these games turned well for us today

 

[pearl31]

Vandy probably very comfortably in now.

I don't think I'd say "comfortably" - another loss and they're right back on the brink

 

[jncuse]

Bama survives. Nothing good happening today (bubble is strengthening a tad perhaps or steady) --- of course our win was the most important thing.

Also of note was that Florida St thrashed Notre Dame at home. That will be a tough game.

 

[jdubs30]

A day like today makes us feel lucky that we control our own destiny. As long as we take care of business it doesn't really matter what other teams do, we will be in

 

[kirbivore]

of the remaining 3 games coming into today this had the most damage potential with a home game vs. a sub 100 rpi wolfpack. At the tarholes is house money. If they beat UNC then SU can drop the mic, they're in no matter what. If SU loses to UNC, beats FSU, the acc tourney doesn't matter. If they go 0-2 next week, SU will have to win at least one ACC tourney game to be safe.

 

[jncuse]

of the remaining 3 games coming into today this had the most damage potential with a home game vs. a sub 100 rpi wolfpack. At the tarholes is house money. If they beat UNC then SU can drop the mic, they're in no matter what. If SU loses to UNC, beats FSU, the acc tourney doesn't matter. If they go 0-2 next week, SU will have to win at least one ACC tourney game to be safe.

Should be, but bubble busters are always an unknown. I think they will be few this year...

And on that note, it was good to see current #12 seed San Diego St lose at home to Boise St... that hurts the at large chances. The MwC is looking to be a one bid league no matter what.

 

[jncuse]

A day like today makes us feel lucky that we control our own destiny. As long as we take care of business it doesn't really matter what other teams do, we will be in

There really hasn't been any major wins either by teams around us either (except Vandy). Perhaps today has been more a tease than a bad day, with arguably the 4 teams closest to the bubble line (on either side) (Butler, Vandy, Alabama, St, Bonnie), teasing us with a loss, and bad losses in some cases.

There are only a few teams on the outside right now that seemingly have a chance -- if 2 of those teams above had loss today, the last few teams out would have been really weak now.