Bubble Watch - Week of Feb 27 to Mar 4

[pearl31]

so Gonzaga ended up prevailing over BYU - still pretty much a wash to me...
and at least lsu hung on over Fla - that's a bigger result I think

 

[jncuse]

so Gonzaga ended up prevailing over BYU - still pretty much a wash to me...
and at least lsu hung on over Fla - that's a bigger result I think

We will have to agree to disagree on that - you must see BYU's resume above the way I see it (and it is hard to measure WCC resumes so I can't say I am right). My view is a BYU win would have shut them both out, as BYU dug too big a hole with its OOC.

I sort of looked at BYU and LSU as the same. I guess one out of 2 is not bad.

But ultimately, I just got annoyed the first half of t0day after all of Butler, St. Bonaventure, Temple, Alabama barely squeaked by (in some cases after being well down). None of the final results were surprises, but it was annoying, and it was capped off by Vandy winning.

 

[jncuse]

My guess of the consensus Last Teams In / Last Teams out after today (without the Matrix being updated)

Syracuse was in the last 8 in before today, but Florida surpassed them now. There is not much to separate the last teams in right now, except maybe Vanderbilt

Last 5- 8 in
Vanderbilt
VCU
Butler
Michigan

Last 4 In
Oregon St
Florida
Cincy
Tulsa

Last 4 Out
Gonzaga
Alabama
St. Bonaventure
Temple

After those 4, a gap is forming

There are 4 other teams that have shot to get closer to the in line with an improbable victory this week
LSU at Kentucky
Georgia Tech at Louisville
Ohio St vs Iowa and at Michigan St
Washington at Oregon

GW has to win out and needs to possibly make the finals of the A-10
Florida St gets back in discussion with a win over Syracuse, and 2 wins in the ACC tourney.

 

[jncuse]

SUNDAY GAMES (p1)

Seton Hall is a 9 seed. They are getting close to a lock. One of the next 3 may do it especially if it is this one.

UConn is an 8 seed and is good in shape. Not quite a lock yet. but they just need to take care of business in the games they should win, and may even be able to absorb a loss against Houston.

 

[jncuse]

Sunday Games (p2)

Pitt is a 9 seed, but it's resume is fairly empty. They can play themselves out with a bad upcoming week. It's start tomorrow -- my dislike for Pitt may be enough to actually cheer for Duke tomorrow. And it could help us.

Tulsa is one of the last teams in. Not an easy road game for them -- very similar to what Butler had to do today and win at Georgetown. If Tulsa survives this they should be "in as of now" entering tourney week. (Only game left is South Florida)

Bubble Buster Valpo.

 

[jncuse]

Sunday games (p3)

Ohio St has a bad OOC and lacks meat in the resume despite a 10-6 Big Ten record. It has a chance to storm back in the picture this week with wins over Iowa at home, and if they can take out Michigan St (on the road) later in the week.

Bubble buster -- Monmouth -17, so meh.

Wisconsin is now safely in as a 7 seed, Michigan is a last 8 team in. It would be better if Wisconsin win. Michigan plays Iowa at home after this. Opportunity for Michigan to lock or possibly be just on the wrong side entering conference tourney week,

Oregon St is a last 4 in. It should not have a problem in this game.

 

[jncuse]

Sunday games (p4)

Washington needs a big road win to get back close to the last 4 out. I'd say this is there last chance or they are done.

 

[jncuse]

Keeping it Simple

What would be a good day tomorrow, not considering bad losses? 2 of the following 3 happening

Duke beating Pitt
Wisconsin beating Michigan
Memphis beating Tulsa

 

[obliterata]

Well then, I think it's going to be a good day.

 

[kirbivore]

Sunday games (p3)

View attachment 56679

Ohio St has a bad OOC and lacks meat in the resume despite a 10-6 Big Ten record. It has a chance to storm back in the picture this week with wins over Iowa at home, and if they can take out Michigan St (on the road) later in the week.

View attachment 56680

Bubble buster -- Monmouth -17, so meh.

View attachment 56681

Wisconsin is now safely in as a 7 seed, Michigan is a last 8 team in. It would be better if Wisconsin win. Michigan plays Iowa at home after this. Opportunity for Michigan to lock or possibly be just on the wrong side entering conference tourney week,


View attachment 56682

Oregon St is a last 4 in. It should not have a problem in this game.

That same Wisconsin that so many on here were calling a terrible loss back in December? I said back then it would end up being neutral. It might be a slightly above average loss now.

 

[Rage4CUSE]

That same Wisconsin that so many on here were calling a terrible loss back in December? I said back then it would end up being neutral. It might be a slightly above average loss now.

Not anymore seeing as Wiscy has been able to finish top 5 in the Big 10.

 

[Chris02M]

my current last 8 at large teams are:
pitt
michigan
butler
florida
vandy
oregon state
tulsa
cincy

just out but considering:
alabama
gonzaga
st bonaventure
george washington

needs lots of work still:
fsu
lsu
washington
georgia tech
ohio state
byu

*pending a seed scrub later today

 

[jdubs30]

Honestly UConn going on a little run and winning the AAC tourney would be the best bet for us. They are the only lock (well, pretty close to it) out of the conference and to have teams like Houston, Temple and Cincy lose early in the conference tourney while UConn claims the automatic bid could make it a 1 bid league.

 

[jncuse]

my current last 8 at large teams are:
pitt
michigan
butler
florida
vandy
oregon state
tulsa
cincy

just out but considering:
alabama
gonzaga
st bonaventure
george washington

needs lots of work still:
fsu
lsu
washington
georgia tech
ohio state
byu

*pending a seed scrub later today

That's pretty much the exact same as the consensus that would be on the matrix, I don't disagree.

In terms of needs lots of work, you can delete BYU. They have ran out of time to do lots of work. All the other teams though have the opportunity for a huge marquee win and run of nice victories.

 

[jncuse]

Honestly UConn going on a little run and winning the AAC tourney would be the best bet for us. They are the only lock (well, pretty close to it) out of the conference and to have teams like Houston, Temple and Cincy lose early in the conference tourney while UConn claims the automatic bid could make it a 1 bid league.

I think that would probably be the best as well. I doubt it would result in a 1 bid league, only because of the numbers game. They have to get 68 teams in, and the AAC is all over the bubble. But the more those teams lose the weaker the dividing line is.

Without worrying too much about UConn, both Cincy (at Houston, SMU) and Tulsa (at Memphis) have some serious challenges coming up that could change their position entering the tournament.

If Cincy takes care of business this week they are in either way. So then we cheer for Cincy and UConn to keep this to a 2 bid league.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Uconn loses at home to Houston. Been saying their resume is a joke, lets see how much damage this loss does

 

[jncuse]

Uconn loses at home to Houston. Been saying their resume is a joke, lets see how much damage this loss does

The resume was not bad compared to teams that are pout -- 3 top 50 wins, no bad losses. The win at Texas is shaping up to be a very nice win. It was fairly empty, but the no bad losses was key for them.

They will still maintain the "no bad loss" after this, even if this was not good. They are still in as of now, and have a game against SMU to offset any damage from this.

Let's hope they follow this up with a loss to SMU. After that they are sweating -- an early loss in the AAC or a loss to UCF could kill them.

 

[jncuse]

The AAC is finally relevant!! It is probably the most relevant league for the next week and the conference tournament in terms of the bubble line.

In the next week
Tulsa at Memphis
Cincy at Houston
UConn at SMU
SMU at Cincy
Memphis at Temple

Temple who is close to the bubble line. This could be a very fluid situation.

With UConn now losing, the situation from the prior page now changes as they are also vulnerable right now. Its time to cheer for Memphis, SMU and Houston this week. See how it plays out, and then re-assess who we want to win next week.

 

[jncuse]

Seton Hall, who was in great shape anyway, locked up a bid with a win today vs Xavier. Good season for the Pirates.

 

[pearl31]

Seton Hall, who was in great shape anyway, locked up a bid with a win today vs Xavier. Good season for the Pirates.

they looked like a freakin juggernaut today

 

[jdubs30]

UConn needed that one and is now squarely back on the bubble -- they're 0-4 vs. Temple and Cincy so we'll see how much weight that has to the committee. I think they need to beat SMU and win at least 1 more game.

 

[Chris02M]

That's pretty much the exact same as the consensus that would be on the matrix, I don't disagree.

In terms of needs lots of work, you can delete BYU. They have ran out of time to do lots of work. All the other teams though have the opportunity for a huge marquee win and run of nice victories.

yea byu needed to beat gonzaga last night to remain on the board

 

[Chris02M]

UConn needed that one and is now squarely back on the bubble -- they're 0-4 vs. Temple and Cincy so we'll see how much weight that has to the committee. I think they need to beat SMU and win at least 1 more game.

uconn is an 8-9 seed just like us

 

[jncuse]

uconn is an 8-9 seed just like us

And they are still vulnerable to a 1-3 or 0-3 run down the stretch like us. This was the start, SMU is good chances of loss #2.

They will then needed to something stupid against UCF or the AAC first round. That is the unlikely part -- but it will be nice to see them potentially play a can't lose game or two even against chumps.

 

[jncuse]

I can't quite put Pitt a lock after this win -- I think they need just one more win. An 0-3 stretch to end the season would make them sweat.