Bubble Watch - Week of Feb 27 to Mar 4

[jncuse]

At the half -

• Tulsa up 1 at Memphis. Let's go Memphis.
• Ohio St up 5 against Iowa. They need this win and then they become very serious if they somehow win at Michigan st later this week.
• Valpo won by 2 to save their potential bubble buster status

 

[pearl31]

ugh Valpo manages to escape again - they better friggin win that conf tourney

 

[Chris02M]

valpo should not get an at large based on their resume.Pitt still has work to do to be a lock since todays game was there only top 50 win.

 

[jncuse]

Memphis beats Tulsa. Gonzaga may be back in as of now. Either way the last team in is a little weaker today than yesteday.

Crazy day for the AAC who was already all over the bubble.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Iowa imploding

 

[jncuse]

valpo should not get an at large based on their resume.Pitt still has work to do to be a lock since todays game was there only top 50 win.

I think they have some chance (certainly less than 50%), but not a good chance as an at large. They did win at Oregon St a fellow bubble team.

And the committee has to use the "eye test" with these schools with small sample sizes. The traditional metrics don't work. Valpo has a good rep which helps with that, and I am sure power rankings (like KP#33) can support the "eye test".

 

[Ghost]

Ohio State got some friendly officiating.

My god - the Ohio State guy just blew up Utoff's face with an elbow to get through a screen - no call! That after Iowa got jobbed a bit on the clock starting the first attempt at in bounding down 2.

Do they not review elbows any more?

 

[Chris02M]

I think they have some chance (certainly less than 50%), but not a good chance as an at large. They did win at Oregon St a fellow bubble team.

And the committee has to use the "eye test" with these schools with small sample sizes. The traditional metrics don't work. Valpo has a good rep which helps with that, and I am sure power rankings (like KP#33) can support the "eye test".

what are your thoughts on wichita st? to me there dont have enough quality wins but as a mid major they played a good schedule.

 

[jncuse]

what are your thoughts on wichita st? to me there dont have enough quality wins but as a mid major they played a good schedule.

I think they get the benefit of the doubt -- injuries early in the year, good rep... I am starting to go heavy this year for "eye test" on one bid mid majors, whether that is the approach the committe will follow, I am not sure.

I think the "eye test" can be altered by someone taking a peek at power ratings (which are very high for them) They have the experienced backcourt who were key in a final four 3 years ago. I would be surprised if they do not get in, despite them being weak on the traditional metrics.

I can respect a totally different opinion on Wichita St. I'm just not sure.

 

[pearl31]

I think they get the benefit of the doubt -- injuries early in the year, good rep... I am starting to go heavy this year for "eye test" on one bid mid majors, whether that is the approach the committe will follow, I am not sure.

I think the "eye test" can be altered by someone taking a peek at power ratings (which are very high for them) They have the experienced backcourt who were key in a final four 3 years ago. I would be surprised if they do not get in, despite them being weak on the traditional metrics.

I can respect a totally different opinion on Wichita St. I'm just not sure.

I agree - just hope they win their conf tourney

 

[pearl31]

Keeping it Simple

What would be a good day tomorrow, not considering bad losses? 2 of the following 3 happening

Duke beating Pitt
Wisconsin beating Michigan
Memphis beating Tulsa

Alright, we got 2 of the 3 - Mich and Tulsa both lost

 

[jncuse]

Alright, we got 2 of the 3 - Mich and Tulsa both lost

Plus the UConn lost was a net positive, although it does impact us as well.

 

[pearl31]

and now another good one for us as well - USC curb stomped by Cal. That's now their 10th loss, have lost 5 of last 6, only 2 good wins on the year home wins over Arizona and Colorado. USC another team that has seemingly gamed the RPI with an empty resume

 

[pearl31]

and now another good one for us as well - USC curb stomped by Cal. That's now their 10th loss, have lost 5 of last 6, only 2 good wins on the year home wins over Arizona and Colorado. USC another team that has seemingly gamed the RPI with an empty resume

(replying to my own post )
looking a little more closely at USC - on the surface those home Arizona/Colorado wins appear as their only impressive wins, but they do also have pre-conf wins over Yale and Wich St (both top-50 rpi)... looks like they have 5 top-50 wins, just like us - but do not have any impressive road wins... I have to think they're at least on the bubble now, though Palm had them as a 7 seed going into today... I will maintain that, despite their impressive-looking top-50 win total, they've been overrated/over-seeded due to their inflated rpi

 

[jncuse]

and now another good one for us as well - USC curb stomped by Cal. That's now their 10th loss, have lost 5 of last 6, only 2 good wins on the year home wins over Arizona and Colorado. USC another team that has seemingly gamed the RPI with an empty resume

Gaming is probably the wrong word, but I know what you are saying the RPI's just don't seem to fit for the entire conference.

They are certainly not a lock yet. If they lose to Oregon and Oregon St at home next week, they will be sweating entering the P12 tourney as well.

 

[jncuse]

Washington blew their opportunity to jump start their resume by losing at Oregon. They needed something big.

 

[pearl31]

They are certainly not a lock yet. If they lose to Oregon and Oregon St at home next week, they will be sweating entering the P12 tourney as well.

and see, I think they should be sweating if they don't win both of those games - if you look past their "magical" rpi, there's just really not much there, other than the "ability" to not lose to any really bad games...
USC might be my choice for the over-regarded team of the bubble season - feel like too many people have locked onto the "oh, what a nice story of Andy Enfield turning that program around and sweeping mighty UCLA" narrative

 

[jncuse]

and see, I think they should be sweating if they don't win both of those games - if you look past their "magical" rpi, there's just really not much there, other than the "ability" to not lose to any really bad games...
USC might be my choice for the over-regarded team of the bubble season - feel like too many people have locked onto the "oh, what a nice story of Andy Enfield turning that program around and sweeping mighty UCLA" narrative

No bad losses helps them. But here is the rub on that stat. In the P12 it's basically impossible to get a sub 100 loss in conference play- only 1 team is sub 100, and that team is really bad and has lost 14 games in a row.

You may have a point, I really have not given them a good look until today. With a good scrub I think they get in, but maybe they are surprise to fall to last 4 in.

 

[jncuse]

MONDAY GAMES

Only one game that impacts the bubble on a slow night -- Syracuse vs UNCheat

It picks up again by Tuesday,

 

[jncuse]

As today is quiet, I decided to pay a visit to our friends at the Boneyard and read their bracketology thread.

"We are going to play the 12 v 12 play-in game so the stand alone first game of the tourney gets ratings. I'm calling that now."

Hard to believe, but nationally they are largely forgotten about despite an amazing 4 titles in 15 years. They are not a major rating booster. So chuck that one in the garbage.

"I can't be the only one that would prefer a 10 seed to an 8/9."
"I'd love the Wichita matchup but Mich St would be a nightmare. They are exactly what we aren't"
"I've seen Wichita play multiple games this year and I'm just not impressed."

Is that a Uconn or Syracuse board>

I then got bored and stopped reading.

 

[orangenirvana]

Syracuse's RPI remains at #55 after last night's loss.

 

[RandygoCuse]

Syracuse's RPI remains at #55 after last night's loss.

Lower than we'd like, but if we beat FSU, I think it'll be moot.

 

[jncuse]

Syracuse's RPI remains at #55 after last night's loss.

Here was the chart before last night. I don't think it changed much if we end regular season at 19/20, Obviously 21 wins before conference tourney is now out of the question. So it seems we will br right around 50 with a win, and right around 60 with a loss.

 

[Dave85]

This video shows how the NCAA decides who's in and who's not in the tournament:

 

[orangenirvana]

Go Kentucky!