Bubble Watch - Week of Feb 27 to Mar 4

[jncuse]

Will Ark-LR really get an at-large??

Hard to say on these teams -- tonight certainly does not help. I like the face they have 2 road wins against teams on the bubble line.

I would still prefer they win their tourney next week so that they are totally out of the equation.

 

[pearl31]

good night for us (ucon, cincy losing)- thanks aac for being so sucky!

 

[jncuse]

Temple won at home against a +100 team (so not a huge win)

UConn lost, Cincy lost, and Stanford is losing (down by 15 to a 4-12 Arizona St team). Add the fact that a potential bubble buster who could take advantage of that (Arkansas Little Rock) lost its last regular season game to a 7-22 team.

I guess Houston may be back in the conversation. All those AAC teams (Cincy, Tulsa, Houston, Temple) are not that far apart.

It's been a very good day. I can't see how somebody can't see the FSU game as a lock at this point. (not to say any active on this thread think that)

 

[jncuse]

So let's assume there are 2 bubble busters, so the line would be what is now viewed as 2 last teams in.

Per Matrix

2 Last Teams In - Cincy, Tulsa, Temple (2 of 3)
Last 4 Out - 1 of Above, Gonzaga, ???, ????

Florida lost this week, Alabama lost this week, Stanford loses tonight. I guess Florida, Alabama, Stanford, Ohio St could all make it but they have to really do something special.

In terms of teams above "Last 2 In" line we now have more votes than:
Oregon St
UConn
St. Bonaventure
VCU
Butler
Michigan

I know we have been saying it all year, but this bubble is brutal.

 

[obliterata]

Let's hope all these teams have one or two more losses before Selection Sunday. As it stands now, I think we're in at 20-12 or even 20-13 but I could see being left out at 19-13 without some more Ls from others.

 

[jncuse]

Let's hope all these teams have one or two more losses before Selection Sunday. As it stands now, I think we're in at 20-12 or even 20-13 but I could see being left out at 19-13 without some more Ls from others.

If #19 is FSU we are gold in my view.

Not going to assess any further past that game at this point.

 

[obliterata]

Yup, if FSU is #20 I would be very surprised to be left out no matter what happens in the ACCT or what other teams do.

 

[jdubs30]

Boys it looks like UConn vs. Cincy will be the 4/5 game in the AAC tourney. Great news for us, the loser will be most likely eliminated after that one. Cincy is 2-0 vs. UConn but it's very hard to beat a team 3 times in one season. Tulsa probasbly has the best chance at an at-large

 

[ClamOtto]

Will Ark-LR really get an at-large??

The Sun Belt does itself no favor by having its tournament end on Selection Sunday. Its not exactly the Big 10. Moving things around to give UALR an at-large if they lose right before the brackets are released is probably so complicated that the committee doesn't even plan for it. So the conference probably gets one bid no matter what.

 

[orangenirvana]

eh I still think S.Carolina is OK - they're 8-4 vs rpi top 100, 3-1 vs top 50... 23 wins - though Joey L did have them a 9 seed going into today...

I think South Carolina has enough wiggle room to survive...

The Cocks' RPI has now plummeted to #58 - one spot behind us. They have the 169th ranked schedule in the country. They could still be safe but they'd better end on a good note.

 

[pearl31]

The Cocks' RPI has now plummeted to #58 - one spot behind us. They have the 169th ranked schedule in the country. They could still be safe but they'd better end on a good note.

yeah they're def on thin ice now

 

[MSOrange]

yeah they're def on thin ice now

I'm sure Coach Martin is handling the whole thing calmly and rationally also

 

[Knicks411]

South Carolina also goes to Arkansas; they're going to be dogs there

 

[kirbivore]

yeah they're def on thin ice now

In Friday's Lunardi bracket he's got USCe as one of the last four byes. Syracuse no longer on that list.

 

[jncuse]

The Sun Belt does itself no favor by having its tournament end on Selection Sunday. Its not exactly the Big 10. Moving things around to give UALR an at-large if they lose right before the brackets are released is probably so complicated that the committee doesn't even plan for it. So the conference probably gets one bid no matter what.

Your point is right on certain circumstances. But it's actually more problematic for a power confernence because there are so many moving parts and bracket rules

ALR is easy to plan for in terms of a contingency. This is not a multi-bid league.

If ALR wins = 12 seed, Chattanooga or whomever = 13 seed

IF ALR loses, but is deemed an at-large
Chattanooga moves up to 12 seed, Sun Belt Champ = 13 seed
ALR replaces somebody in a play in game.
They just need to ensure the two Sun Belt teams are not in the same conference.

 

[jncuse]

The Cocks' RPI has now plummeted to #58 - one spot behind us. They have the 169th ranked schedule in the country. They could still be safe but they'd better end on a good note.

Yep, I probably early locked them last night.

They probably don't want to test 0-2, and what is likely a bad loss in that 2nd game. But win that first SEC game (avoid a bad loss) and I think they are fine no matter what. Just not enough teams left.

 

[jncuse]

South Carolina also goes to Arkansas; they're going to be dogs there

They can probably still afford to lose that one, its the next one that would then become big for them.

It's not really much different than our situation right now. (Arkansas not much different than Florida St strength wise).

 

[RandygoCuse]

Apparently, if we beat FSU but lose the first tourney game, we only have a 25% chance of getting in according to Team Rankings. I thought that was a little low.

http://www.nunesmagician.com/2016/3...-are-in-but-with-work-left-to-do-bracketology

 

[jncuse]

I don't really want to speculate on any scenarios involving us losing to FSU until we actually do and see everything that happens Saturday (and there are a heck of a lot of key games on Saturday)

But I will say this our % of getting in with only 1 win in the ACC is inching up right now. As is our % of getting in with an 0-2 record (as sad as that sounds)

 

[jncuse]

Apparently, if we beat FSU but lose the first tourney game, we only have a 25% chance of getting in according to Team Rankings. I thought that was a little low.

http://www.nunesmagician.com/2016/3...-are-in-but-with-work-left-to-do-bracketology

I appreciate there efforts to come up with a model for this stuff. But is way to complex to actually be reliable.

 

[RandygoCuse]

I appreciate there efforts to come up with a model for this stuff. But is way to complex to actually be reliable.

Agreed, but I still think if we beat FSU, we are more than likely in. Then again...

 

[jncuse]

Agreed, but I still think if we beat FSU, we are more than likely in. Then again...

Oh I totally agree. We are close to 100% with the win.

What I meant was that the model is so hard to build, that it probably can't replace common sense / eyeballing it especially when we are down to so few games.

 

[jncuse]

Tomorrow is crazy - I counted 24 games with bubble implications . This includes teams that are in as of now, but not quite locks, bubble buster teams, and teams that are on the outside, including those who are far out bot could make a push at an large with a conference tourney tun.

 

[jncuse]

The Matrix had 39 brackets updated so far today

39 Total Brackets

Here are the rankings of the teams that are no quite locks and details on next game

IN
Pitt - 39 (Sat 2:00 - AT Georgia Tech)
Providence - 39 (Sat 12:30 - AT St. John's)
Vanderbilt - 39 (Sat 12;00 - AT Texas A&M)
Butler - 39 (Sat 2:30 - vs Marquette)
USC - 38 (Sat 4:00 - vs Oregon)
Syracuse - 38* (Sat 2:00 - AT Florida St)
VCU - 38 (Sat 8:00 - AT Dayton)
St. Bona - 36 (Sat 8:00 - AT St Louis)
UConn - 34 (Sun 2:00 - vs UCF)
South Carol - 33 (Sat 5:00 - AT Arkansas)
Oregon St - 33 (Sat 6:30 - AT UCLA)
Michigan - 30 (Sat 9:00 - vs Iowa)
Cincinnati - 28 (Sun Noon - vs SMU)
Tulsa - 25 (Sat 5:00 - vs South Florida)

OUT
Temple - 27* (Sun 3:00 - AT Tulane)
Gonzaga - 17 (Sat - midnight - vs Portland, WCC quarterfinal)
George Wash - 3 (Sat 3:30 - AT Davidson)
Houston - 3 (Done for Regular Season)
Stanford - 1 (Sat 4:00 - AT Arizona)
Florida St - 1 (Sat 2:00 vs Syracuse)

NO VOTES, BUT COULD GET AT LARGE WITH BIG WIN And/OR Run Next Week
Ohio St at Michigan St (Sat 12:00)
LSU at Kentucky (Sat 2:00)
Creighton at Xavier (Sat 2:30)
Alabama at Georgia (Sat 4:00)
Florida at Missouri (Sat 7:30)

Bubble Buster Games
San Diego St vs UNLV (Sat 10:00, regular season game)
St. Mary's vs Team X (Sat ??, WCC quarterfinal)
Wichita St vs Team X (Sat ??, MVC Semifinal)
Monmouth vs Team X ( ??, NEC Semifnal. if it wins tonight)


* Send complaints here. https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/ Terrible, just terrible.

** reversed with Tulsa as I sense some are still placing them here because they lead the AAC and not because they are an at-large. But they are in the at large discussion now.

 

[pearl31]

Apparently, if we beat FSU but lose the first tourney game, we only have a 25% chance of getting in according to Team Rankings. I thought that was a little low.

http://www.nunesmagician.com/2016/3...-are-in-but-with-work-left-to-do-bracketology

That's more than a little low.