Bubble Watch - Week of Feb 27 to Mar 4

[Moontan]

LOL - what does Seth (3 bids in 22 years as HC) Greenberg know about the NCAA tournament?

Since none of us have coached a single D-1 game (nor Lunardi and the rest of those "experts"), we should just shut all of these threads down.

In fact, this goes for the vast majority of the selection committee as well. Shut it all down!

 

[NineOneSeven]

View attachment 56826

RPI Forecast has now updated their projections to include conference tournaments. As you can see from above, they are expecting us to lose at FSU (we will probably be slight dogs) and have us at 1-1 in the ACC. I am not sure exactly how they come up with this model, as it seems there are more factors in play then a straight schedule.

But I will trust it to be a reasonable projection.

Doesnt look like a tourney resume to me. Granted, it's all about the other "options".

 

[jncuse]

Doesnt look like a tourney resume to me. Granted, it's all about the other "options".

It doesn't look like one, until you look at the other options. I compared Syracuse's resume if they end the season 1-2 vs the projected resumes of the other 7 last teams that are in.

Remember -- All these teams are in as of now. and this is where they project to be if the win the games they are supposed, and lose the ones they are not supposed to.

 

[jncuse]

Other teams that are in as of now

 

[pearl31]

Providence is a 9 seed. Should be OK if they take care of St. John's next. Creighton is way out as of now, but if they win at Providence and win at Xavier this week, they jump into the picture,

I would actually lean towards wanting Provy in this game. Despite their recent slide, I think they're still solidly in. Creighton, on the other hand, is one of those teams from below (see Ohio St, LSU) that could rise up and snatch a bid - need to keep them down there

 

[jncuse]

Cincy is also in.

So assume there are 2 bubble busters. Than 2 of the above 8 resumes are out. Sure some of the 8 teams will do better than expected, but I am sure some of the teams will do worse than expected and blow a game they were supposed to win.

Clearly se are in line with many of this group if we win only the 1st ACC tourney game. We are ahead of Tulsa and Michigan in my view just looking at the above.

 

[jncuse]

Projected Resumes of Teams that are Currently Last Out

 

[jncuse]

Assuming there will be 2 bubble busters from teams not currently in the ar0large mix above, I like our chances even if our only win is in the first game of the ACCT.

The last 4 out are not particularly strong. And of 8 last in, we are ahead of a few projected resumes under that scenario above (Michigan / Tulsa), plus certainly a few teams will lose games they are favoured in.

 

[jncuse]

I would actually lean towards wanting Provy in this game. Despite their recent slide, I think they're still solidly in. Creighton, on the other hand, is one of those teams from below (see Ohio St, LSU) that could rise up and snatch a bid - need to keep them down there

It could go both ways. After further analysis this is probably a result that will not ultimately not matter at the end of the day. .

The result in this game only matters if something very unlikely happens next game
- Providence loses at St. John's (19% chance)
- Creighton wins at Xavier. (20% chance)

And really they are the same likelihood -- so I call it a total wash.

 

[jncuse]

Keeping it Simple

It's an important night with several key games. Here are the most desirable outcomes from games tomorrow with a line of 5 points or less. 2 out od 4 would be fine.

St, Joes over St. Bonaventure
Seton Hall over Butler
Arkansas over Alabama
Virginia Tech over Pitt.

Note - I removed the Creighton-Providence game because the chance of that game impacting our bubble chances is dependent on au unlikely result for either team in next game.

 

[jncuse]

I think at this point, I will not be making any further assessments based on if we lose FSU, win 1 in the ACC. It's also a defeatist mindset before playing FSU. Let's win that game... or if we lose re-assess at that point.

I will still certainly track the bubble every day however every day. Because the weakening of the line is of course important.

 

[Jake]

Pitt losing to Va Tech.

 

[bpo57]

Bonnies in the process of getting a good win against St. Joe's - up 9 mid 2H.

 

[orangenirvana]

Pitt losing to Va Tech.

 

[jncuse]

Keeping it Simple

It's an important night with several key games. Here are the most desirable outcomes from games tomorrow with a line of 5 points or less. 2 out od 4 would be fine.

St, Joes over St. Bonaventure
Seton Hall over Butler
Arkansas over Alabama
Virginia Tech over Pitt.

Bonnies with the nice win... and will be in "as of now" starting this weekend.
Pitt loses to Virginia Tech. Pitt is in a very similar spot to us at this point.

So 1-1 so far. Butler beating the Hall by 15 in the first half. So I think we need to rely on Arkansas to get to that 2-2 target,

In the other games, things went as expected.

 

[NKR1978]

Im worried about FSU because I'm always worried, but they looked lost against the zone last game and Hamilton is not a great coach and has a pretty bad record against JB. Can they blitz us with threes? Sure, but it's hard to withstand an onslaught like that no matter who you are. We should win this game regardless of where it's played.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[jncuse]

3 games down to the wire

Butler up 2 with 3 minutes to go
Alabama tied with 11 minutes to go
Creighton up 2 on Providence (un a game both really wanted)

 

[pearl31]

Alright, Arkansas took care of Alabama - that's big, 'bama will need a run in the SEC tourney now to have a chance at a bid.
Provy outlasted Creighton, which I think is a slight plus for us.
Butler outlasted the Hall, which wasn't good for us - big win for Butler.

 

[pearl31]

One more tonight that I think is big - Oregon St at USC - we could really use USC winning this game.

 

[20Plus]

3 games down to the wire

Butler up 2 with 3 minutes to go
Alabama tied with 11 minutes to go
Creighton up 2 on Providence (un a game both really wanted)

Glad Alabama lost finally a team went the right way
I wanted clearly BUTLER AND PROVIDENCE TO LOOSE
NEED ORSTATE now to lose

 

[pearl31]

Glad Alabama lost finally a team went the right way
I wanted clearly BUTLER AND PROVIDENCE TO LOOSE
NEED ORSTATE now to lose

actually Providence winning was probably better for us

 

[20Plus]

actually Providence winning was probably better for us

Disagree bring higher resumes down Providence

before worrying about lower resume Creighton

 

[pearl31]

Disagree bring higher resumes down Providence

before worrying about lower resume Creighton

Nope.

 

[jncuse]

Nope.

Not sure if their is a right answer on some of these. I know we have thought differently on a few of these as well, where the choice is weaken the bottom of the field, weaken the outside.

In large part, we don't know the correct answer of who we should have cheered for in a game like this until every one is done their schedule. Also depends on how many bubble busters. I think that is why they get argued because you can see both sides. At least we avoided a "road win" which may have been the greatest benefit outcome someone could game.

At the end of the day we can always find some positive from this game no matter the result -- after all somebody has to lose.