Bubble Watch - Week of Feb 27 to Mar 4

[jncuse]

Assessing tonight (my view anyway)

Snoozed off early, now I woke up in middle of the night. Just caught up on a few results.

Note - I am starting to talk "Second Last Team in", because on average we can expect maybe 2 bubble busters. So that is the expected line come Selection Sunday.

One negative - A team just on the outside (St Bonnie) got a top 50 win tonight. Obviously somebody falls out, but as of now. just the LAST team out and the second last team in, are stronger today than yesterday.

Don't really buy the argument that this was the good result tonight because it improved our RPI by a fraction. People that are focusing on our individual RPI at this point, rather than actual wins / losses by us and others, are taking the wrong viewpoint at this time.

The good is that everything is fluid. 2 teams around the bubble line lost to non tourney teams (Pitt and Alabama). So 2 is better than 1. The LAST team out / SECOND LAST team in certainly improved tonight vs. yesterday only. But there is a week to play, so what is more important is not that the line has moved up a bit today, but that the teams around the line still weakened tongight. It will benefit later.

The pool of teams on the "outside" took a bit of a hit. The last team in is stronger today -- Tulsa. But after that Alabama took a hit, and Creighton had a chance to streak its way in. The last 4 now looks to be Tulsa, Gonzaga, Temple and Stanford. So it is definetely weaker.

As an aside not sure that Oregon St took much of a hit losing a road game against a tourney team.

 

[jncuse]

Let's talk about Stanford

4 of the last 17 bracket submissions have them in. They were a non player for a while and actually are scary now that I look at them.

As people look for teams to add (and may not be impressed by the AAC and the A-10) they have had to find a power team to add. And this seems to be the P5 team that is gaining momentum. They are on a 2 game winning streak with home wins over USC and UCLA, Nothing really impressive.

It's a total Pac12 ish type resume. If you look at my posts back in December, I predicted this crap would happen in the Pac 12, and now this is the most exceptional case of it

Stanford is currently 14-12. They have an RPI of 65. How can they possibly be considered?

• Despite 12 losses, they have no sub 100 losses. In face 11 of the 12 losses are against teams in the RPI top 50,
• They also have 5 top 50 wins right now. Oregon and Utah are marquee victories.
• SOS 2

In my view this is just an inbred Pac12 resume where you are protected from bad results, and have plenty of opportunities for quality wins against mediocore teams at home. 4 of the top 50 wins are P12 teams at home.

But if someone simply accepts the numbers of the P12 as "good", then they have a good resume that is hard to poke holes at. They are 5-11 vs top 50, which by win % is in line with some other P5 teams on the bubble. And they have literally nothing bad after those 11 losses - who else comes close to that?

So at the end of the day what can be criticized IF you accept all the P12 numbers. I put that IF because I don't buy them all, but who knows what the committee will do.

So the conclusion is we definetely need to start following Stanford and want them to lose.

A big game tomorrow on the road vs a non tourney team in Arizona St (of course not sub 100 because that is impossible in the P12). And if they somehow win at Arizona this weekend, I may have a hard time keeping them out.

 

[jncuse]

THURSDAY GAMES

Temple is still on the outside. Can't lose a home game. Only 4 point fav.

12 seed bubble buster (Not a conference tourney game), so we want the big upset.

Go SMU. We are going to credit for the UConn win regardless whether they are clearly in or on the bubble. Impact of a spot or two on our individual RPI is not important consideration at this point.

Cincy is one of the last teams in. AAC will be popular tonight.

 

[jncuse]

Go Arizona St. Stanford needs losses outside of the top 50. See post above.

 

[jncuse]

Keeping it Simple

4 of tonight's key games are games within 5 points on the line. We need 2 to work our way.

 

[jdubs30]

Out of all the "predicted resumes" we had the worst RPI..jncuse are you saying RPI isn't that big of a deal?

 

[orange79]

Out of all the "predicted resumes" we had the worst RPI..jncuse are you saying RPI isn't that big of a deal?

I would say it's a big deal, not a HUGE deal. It's a tool, and the analytics can tell you based on history, what is the highest RPI team not to get an at large bid, the lowest RPI team to get an at large bid, etc. The committee looks at who you beat, where you beat them, who you played, how your conference fared vs. other conferences, and more. I am certain they use the 'look test' at times, also. When they look at Top 25/Top 50/Top 100 wins, they need a way to establish who is Top 25 etc. That tool is RPI.

 

[Dave85]

I would say it's a big deal, not a HUGE deal. It's a tool, and the analytics can tell you based on history, what is the highest RPI team not to get an at large bid, the lowest RPI team to get an at large bid, etc. The committee looks at who you beat, where you beat them, who you played, how your conference fared vs. other conferences, and more. I am certain they use the 'look test' at times, also. When they look at Top 25/Top 50/Top 100 wins, they need a way to establish who is Top 25 etc. That tool is RPI.

I doubt we are 100% out. A win at FSU helps. Does a win at FSU mean 100% in?

 

[NineOneSeven]

Stanford knocks us out of the tournament again

 

[pearl31]

this is just an inbred Pac12 resume where you are protected from bad results

Love this.

 

[jncuse]

Although I use rpiforecast a lot, I am not necessarily infatuated with our individual RPI - I like to see how it predicts our resume if we get to say 9 wins. By looking at it early on this year that even with a decent resume it was going to be high. I just wanted to stay near the mid-high 50's (and our number is close enough(,, because they don't throw everything out at that level/ They look at all the metrics. Orange79 laid it out pretty well above, although he said big not huge. I say it's neither at the level it is at.

For people that are really worried about our individual RPI being the determining factor. Remember, that the numbers above are for teams that are all in as well. In terms of P5 teams that are out the RPI's of those teams are all worse. So who is going to catch us. Remember that RPI tends to be at a higher threshold for now power conference s like the AAC and A-10.

Note - I will attach the projected RPI rankings after they are updated for yesterday. You will then see there is no P5 team out of the tournament that is ahead of us except 14 loss Florida.

 

[bpo57]

I would say it's a big deal, not a HUGE deal. It's a tool, and the analytics can tell you based on history, what is the highest RPI team not to get an at large bid, the lowest RPI team to get an at large bid, etc. The committee looks at who you beat, where you beat them, who you played, how your conference fared vs. other conferences, and more. I am certain they use the 'look test' at times, also. When they look at Top 25/Top 50/Top 100 wins, they need a way to establish who is Top 25 etc. That tool is RPI.

I agree with you even though it is an incredibly flawed tool.

 

[jncuse]

Stanford knocks us out of the tournament again

They could. It really depends on how the committee "eye tests" the Pac 12 numbers. Is 2/3 of their league really tourney worthy? Half the league RPI top 35? Only one bad team in the entire league? What helps them a bit is bigger names like UCLA and Washington which appear to have talent are struggling in the league.

I am very wary of Stanford. And if they got in with say a 17-14 record this board may go nuts.

 

[CuseHulk]

My god people w r not on the bubble. We pass the eye test. Plus wins at Duke, home Notre Dame, and then Texas A & M and UCONN in the Bahamas.

The Wisconsin loss is no Longer a bad loss, and they will throw out the St. Johns loss (plus we cancel it out with the win at Duke) even Georgetown is a rivalry game on the road no less so can excuse that.

We r a dangerous team in the Big Dance.

 

[jncuse]

My god people w r not on the bubble. We pass the eye test. Plus wins at Duke, home Notre Dame, and then Texas A & M and UCONN in the Bahamas.

The Wisconsin loss is no Longer a bad loss, and they will throw out the St. Johns loss (plus we cancel it out with the win at Duke) even Georgetown is a rivalry game on the road no less so can excuse that.

We r a dangerous team in the Big Dance.

My god, yes we are on the bubble.

 

[Chris02M]

My god, yes we are on the bubble.

we are but are bubble isnt close to the popping like some others

 

[jncuse]

we are but are bubble isnt close to the popping like some others

I think at this point of the season, since there are so few games left that you are either a lock or on the bubble. That is how I classify it for this thead anyway.

But indeed, we are not in the classic bubble of the last 4 in / last 4 out (yet)

 

[NKR1978]

My god, yes we are on the bubble.

If the person you're responding to said it, the opposite is likely true.

 

[orangenirvana]

Georgia (RPI 82) vs. South Carolina (RPI 46)

Who do we want in this one? Does Georgia still have a shot? Could the Cocks play themselves out?

 

[pearl31]

Georgia (RPI 82) vs. South Carolina (RPI 46)

Who do we want in this one? Does Georgia still have a shot? Could the Cocks play themselves out?

View attachment 56892

was just going to pose this... jncuse what do you think?

 

[pearl31]

eh I still think S.Carolina is OK - they're 8-4 vs rpi top 100, 3-1 vs top 50... 23 wins - though Joey L did have them a 9 seed going into today...

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Georgia (RPI 82) vs. South Carolina (RPI 46)

Who do we want in this one? Does Georgia still have a shot? Could the Cocks play themselves out?

View attachment 56892

georgia has no shot
route 4 them

 

[jncuse]

Cincy and UConn down by double digits at the half.

Arkansas Little Rock (a 12 seed) lost to a 7-22 team. (thankfully they are still in regular season play). But that's a bad loss that may not allow them to absorb another loss next week to get an at-large.

Let's complete this thing the next 20 minutes.

 

[jdubs30]

Will Ark-LR really get an at-large??

 

[jncuse]

was just going to pose this... jncuse what do you think?

So Georgia won tonight (Current RPI is 83)... they can certainly beat Bama at home. If they go 3-1 in SEC Tourney they probably are not that far off, but probably still short. Let's revisist this is they beat Alabama and win first SEC game next week.

I think South Carolina has enough wiggle room to survive...