Bubble Watch - Week of February 18 to 24

[jncuse]

Let me calm down a bit before assessing "possibilities". Despite a few announcers saying this locked it, I don't think that is the case.

But our chances went way up than before today. But will post more later.

 

[jncuse]

Duke And Syracuse was crazy. But there is other crazy things going on during the 7:00 games.

 

[jncuse]

Vanderbilt may move into the final 4 out after this game. Tennessee was the 2nd last out before this -- losing at home to a bubble team so will them down to the bottom of the bubble standings.

TCU led for most of the first half. They are the 3rd last team in as of now. May fall a spot, but in reality a loss like at Kansas won't really you.

We were the last team in as of today (but only 12 of 26) as the bottom of the bracket was split. This will really solidify our position. Expect to be around 90% in new brackets tomorrow. Still no way to say we a lock.
a) We don't know everything going on around us.
b) We can't lose 3 games in a row to finish out.

Now will just one more win do it? I won't call it a lock, but it very well could. We finally see the benefits of how crappy the bubble has played the last 3 weeks. 3 weeks ago it seemed 10-8 was a bit wishful, but that is what the play of others has done for us.

Bubble this week after these 3 games:

4-5 total
1-2 for teams above the line
3-3 for teams below the line**

** At the beginning of the week we were below the line.

 

[Briancuse]

Jk about the nit bubble, stick a fork in Pitt, blow a 19 point lead at Wake, they are finished.

 

[jncuse]

Seton Hall is in extremely good shape now. They were in on 24 of 26 entering today. But they have to finish it off by winning 2 of the next 3 games

After this game the bubble is 5-5 this week.
2-2 above the line
3-3 below the line

 

[jncuse]

Despite being 14-13, Georgetown would have been in the conversation if they finished the season at 3-1

One of the big things Georgetown had was some high quality wins and no bad losses. So much for that. A loss Depaul at home is Crippling.

 

[jncuse]

Illinois St would have been a mystery team in most years, but they could be one of the teams really benefiting from the P5 bubble blunders.

 

[jncuse]

Pitt was up by at least 15 at one point -- they would have certainly been on the bubble (outside) if they had won. To blow a road win like they did was terrible. Technically if they win out they are probably in very good shape -- but win vs UNC, at Virginia and Georgia Tech? Let's get real.

 

[Briancuse]

View attachment 90130

Pitt was up by at least 15 at one point -- they would have certainly been on the bubble (outside) if they had won. To blow a road win like they did was terrible. Technically if they win out they are probably in very good shape -- but win vs UNC, at Virginia and Georgia Tech? Let's get real.


View attachment 90135

I know this is a really weak bubble, but an 11 loss conference team should not be in the discussion.

 

[jncuse]

Well. we haven't pissed off every media member yet.

 

[jncuse]

You were up 10 at the half. You were going to get create some space above the RPI #100. But you blew it.

 

[jncuse]

Random Post as I watch the Oregon-Cal - Charlie Moore looks like an 11 year old at the FT line.

 

[jncuse]

This is the type of game why we are not a lock. When a team outside the bubble wins a top 25 road game it slings them up the bubble rankings.

My guess is that Providence is the last team out in terms of tomorrow's consolidated brackets.

 

[jncuse]

This game really swung in the second half.

Tonight's results (Syracuse, Providence, Seton Hall wins) really put pressure on Cal

 

[jncuse]

Similar comment to Cal. Except this was a much more winnable game for Kansas St. Oklahoma St though has been very good recently. Up to #20 on Ken Pom. Put a few bucks on them at 200-1 to win the national title. I don't think any 1 or 2 seed should be looking forward to them in the round of 32.

 

[jncuse]

Houston stays alive, but I think they need a statement win to make the big jump -- that chance will come at Cincy next week.

If UConn had won their RPI would be around 90. It has now fell to 105.

 

[pearl31]

that Providence result. Wow.
I think they're probably in as of now.

 

[pearl31]

the big east is really making things difficult for us - namely Marquette, Seton Hall and now Providence - part of that is Xavier and Creighton falling apart but still serving as "big wins" for the aforementioned... at least gtown is all but out now

 

[jncuse]

Results - Monday to Wednesday

Kansas St 41 - Wed vs Oklahoma St (51%) LOSE
Michigan St 41 - Thurs vs Nebraska (75%)
Cal 39 - Wed vs Oregon (34%) LOSE
Seton Hall 36 - Wed vs Xavier (48%) WIN
Marquette 35 - Tues vs St. John's (81%) WIN
Illinois St 27 - Wed vs Southern Illinois (88%) WIN
TCU 26 - Wed at Kansas (14%) LOSE
Georgia Tech 23 - Tues vs NC St (63%) LOSE

----IN / OUT LINE----------

Syracuse 16 - Wed vs Duke (33%) WIN
Clemson 14 - Tues at Virginia Tech (43%) LOSE
Tennessee 13 - Wed vs Vanderbilt (64%) LOSE
Wake Forest 7 - Wed vs Pitt (74%) WIN
Rhode Island 5 - Tues at Lasalle (64%) WIN
Providence 3 - Wed At Creighton (17%) WIN
Vanderbilt 3 - Wed at Tennessee (36%) WIN
Houston 2 - Wed vs UConn (78%) WIN
Alabama 2 - Thurs vs Georgia (54%)
Texas Tech 2 - Mon vs Iowa St (46%) LOSE
Pitt 2 - Wed at Pitt (26%) LOSE

I have 3-4 above the line, and 6-4 below the line so far this week. The teams below the line seemed to finally stand up for themselves this week. 3 impressive victories by Syracuse, Providence and Vanderbilt.

Not many more games until Saturday -- we certainly cleared Georgia Tech and I think we move ahead of TCU and Illinois St... we may not be that far behind Kansas St. I suspect that Providence, Wake Forest, Vandy and Rhode Island will be the four out entering play on Saturday.

Our next game against Louisville should not move things much. But the big mover will be the Georgia Tech game if we lose. If we lose that game all bets are off. That really is the crucial game of our season.

 

[jdubs30]

Illinois State stinks - they'd get dismantled in a P5 I really hope they don't get an at-large...
Mixed results for us tonight obviously the biggest being our win. We are in a spot where if we go 1-2 the rest of the way - I think we're probably in. Anything more than 1 win puts us in I would think; and going winless probably puts us in a very tough spot.

 

[kirbivore]

Let me calm down a bit before assessing "possibilities". Despite a few announcers saying this locked it, I don't think that is the case.

But our chances went way up than before today. But will post more later.

to quote the wolf:


To me locked in means you can lose out and still fell safe. after this high I don't want to see SU lose the next 3 and hope they're safe on selection Sunday. IMO just beat GT to get to 10-8 in league play and the ACCT shouldn't matter.

 

[kirbivore]

View attachment 90129

Illinois St would have been a mystery team in most years, but they could be one of the teams really benefiting from the P5 bubble blunders.

you think if they lose the Arch Madness title game they still get in?

 

[jncuse]

I think Illinois St is possible, but certainly not at 50% or more.

I do have a general view (that I can't really prove out), that in order to compare apples and oranges, the power ratings (KP, Sag, BPI) really matter for these teams. I seem to remember they averaged a tad below 50 a few weeks back, which I thought was a positive for them. Today I see they average 57. Not nearly as good in my view.

I also know their number in the Matrix is skewed because many have them as the current MVC champ. So they probablly do not have that much at large support as the number shows. Unfortunately there is no great way to measure it.

It's certainly in our best interest for Wichita St to win the MVC next weekend, and take our chances with Illinois St as an large. I think Wichita St, despite the lack of quality wins, is a 100% lock for the NCAA tourney. With the reliance on some analytics I can't see a team that is averaging #15 in the 3 rating above being left out.

 

[20Plus]

So, lots of games, here's what I'm thinking we want tonight:

-CUSE Over Duke!!!

-Kansas over TCU

-Creighton over Providence

-Oregon over Cal

-Vandy over Tenn. (Both bubble teams, but I think Tenn is closer)

-Rutgers over Michigan

-Pitt over Wake (Again both bubbles, but at this point Wake much closer than Pitt)

-Southern Illinois over Illinois State

-Xavier over Seton Hall

-Texas A&M over Arkansas

-Oak St over Kansas State

-Uconn over Houston

Lots on tap tonight. Big day!

BEAT DUKE

5/12
+1 season changer

 

[SWFLCUSE]

Illinois State stinks - they'd get dismantled in a P5 I really hope they don't get an at-large...
Mixed results for us tonight obviously the biggest being our win. We are in a spot where if we go 1-2 the rest of the way - I think we're probably in. Anything more than 1 win puts us in I would think; and going winless probably puts us in a very tough spot.

While I believe you are right they would struggle in a P5 conference, Illinois State is a solid team that really makes you beat them. They have a good defense and are third in the nation in defensive shooting percentage at 37.5% (before tonight's game). They may not have played the best schedule and have a couple of What losses away from home, but I think if they get in they will be a handful for whoever they face in the first round.

 

[MSOrange]

Syracuse beats Duke at buzzer on bonkers bank-shot 3, but Orange aren't dancing yet