Bubble Watch - Week of February 25th to March 3rd

[bpo57]

Absolutely the lines move a bit to reduce risk and get it a bit closer to 50%. But it will tend to not be moved to the point to get the game to 50/50 . As I said before the problem with College Basketball is you may have to move the line so much to get to this level, and then would be at the mercy of the sharps jumping you at the end.

Let me you ask this, what would you prefer as the house:

Setting reasonable lines that come in around 70-30, that you can move down slightly with some line movements. You are confident in your system that over time you will come out to at least 50/50 (and usually slightly more), and you will still collect your house cut.

Or

Trying to set college basketball lines at 50/50, which will create tremendous value for one team in certain instances. an crapping your pants at the last minute hoping the sharps don't push it to 52/48 for the team that is great value. That is a much worse scenario.

The 52/48 scenario in the latter example is much worse than taking a position in a game and moving it a few points to try to equalize it a bit.

I hear ya and I would say I'd take #1 but maybe not as much as 70/30. It's all about the dollar exposure. If they're too exposed then they'll jack the line up and run the risk of getting middled.

I'll give you a perfect example. This last season the sportsbooks got mauled with the NFL. Every week the public had certain teams they bet against with abandon - SF, LA and Cleveland. The books would set the line at 14 thinking it was appropriate and would draw some two-sided action. The public would bet the thing all the way up to 17 which as I'm sure you know is a huge move in the NFL. The books were not going to stand in the way of that and they let the line move up quite a bit. And yet they still got crushed.

 

[jncuse]

50 new brackets out today. And we are in on 42 of them. I think yesterday our %was 87
So decrease to 84% means not many people other than Palm moved us out after the loss.

 

[NineOneSeven]

50 new brackets out today. And we are in on 42 of them. I think yesterday our %was 87
So decrease to 84% means not many people other than Palm moved us out after the loss.

Huge game saturday. Really need to come out strong which literally hasn't happened since 'nam

 

[CorduroyG]

50 new brackets out today. And we are in on 42 of them. I think yesterday our %was 87
So decrease to 84% means not many people other than Palm moved us out after the loss.

yea that loss shouldnt be a big deal as long as we beat georgia tech. once we beat duke you knew it was gonna come down to the georgia tech game, we had next to no chance to winning at lville.

 

[Ryand877]

yea that loss shouldnt be a big deal as long as we beat georgia tech. once we beat duke you knew it was gonna come down to the georgia tech game, we had next to no chance to winning at lville.

I'm concerned GaTech alone isn't enough.

 

[CorduroyG]

I'm concerned GaTech alone isn't enough.

we'd be sweating out selection sunday big time, i think we'd get in but alot will depend on what other bubble teams do.

 

[orange79]

I'm concerned GaTech alone isn't enough.

Agreed, but it all starts with Ga Tech. We can worry about the ACCT once we get this win in our back pocket. If we don't win Saturday, the ACCT won't be much to worry about.

 

[Ish88888]

Agreed, but it all starts with Ga Tech. We can worry about the ACCT once we get this win in our back pocket. If we don't win Saturday, the ACCT won't be much to worry about.

Totally agree, have to take advantage of the home game. GT is playing well right now.

 

[Briancuse]

Totally agree, have to take advantage of the home game. GT is playing well right now.

I'm not that impressed with them, we better win sat, no excuses.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Good counter argument - let's hope we have someone at the table does the same when the bully supporting Wake makes his case.

--

Let met put on my Wake bully hat and try to counter your points. (those that I am ignoring is because I can't argue... I may deflect them)

- One of 3 games is against UNC so using winning % does not make sense. It's still a case of one having more opportunity than the other and the big difference being a made 3 pointer. I think Wake could have beaten Syracuse, Monmouth, Virginia, and Florida St if it played them at home.

- You diminish the games against Richmond, Charleston and Greensboro, but it should not be diminished. These were the exact games we said we would reward P5 teams with. When we set this factor it was not too measure who was good or bad, but to punish and reward. For the integrity of the system and to help smaller schools it is important that we continue to stand for this primary factor and not ignore it.

- And that RPI, come on guys, it's awful. We ccan't let them in 2 years in a row with the worst RPI. And this year they did not even on the road.

---

I thought the argument I had made above in my first post on this topic could come across as very convincing. And someone could see it as tight and clear. Or someone could poke it and put major holes in it. In my response to Orange Nirvana all I could really do is deflect,

The reason I put something up was to show potential Committee Mechanics. We are never quite sure what they might do, and the quality of the arguments / counterarguments.

I despise arguments like what games we think teams would have won.

Got to assess by cold, hard results.

 

[jdubs30]

GaTech would be enough as long as everything else holds serve.

The status quo is good for us as long as we beat GaTech. I believe the BE will have 1 team falter and fade out; I don't think Wake will get in unless they beat Louisville or go on a run in the ACCT; we can't have TCU, Cal or USC get particularly hot either.

Obviously the more wins we get the more cushion we have - but if we beat GaTech I'd feel fairly comfortable

 

[pearl31]

GaTech would be enough as long as everything else holds serve.

The status quo is good for us as long as we beat GaTech. I believe the BE will have 1 team falter and fade out; I don't think Wake will get in unless they beat Louisville or go on a run in the ACCT; we can't have TCU, Cal or USC get particularly hot either.

Obviously the more wins we get the more cushion we have - but if we beat GaTech I'd feel fairly comfortable

jncuse 's 50/50 assessment for the scenario in which we only beat GT feels spot-on - if we lose 1st game in Brooklyn we're leaving it up to a bunch of forces that are out of our control: weird conf tourney happenings, jn's well-described committee error/inconsistency, etc

 

[upperdeck]

Totally agree, have to take advantage of the home game. GT is playing well right now.

when did 2-5 down the stretch become playing well?

 

[pearl31]

when did 2-5 down the stretch become playing well?

including losing at home to NC St

 

[jncuse]

GaTech would be enough as long as everything else holds serve.

The status quo is good for us as long as we beat GaTech. I believe the BE will have 1 team falter and fade out; I don't think Wake will get in unless they beat Louisville or go on a run in the ACCT; we can't have TCU, Cal or USC get particularly hot either.

Obviously the more wins we get the more cushion we have - but if we beat GaTech I'd feel fairly comfortable

I trust your opinion. I hope I am being too conservative right now in 50%, and not relying enough on the fundamentals (top 50 wins)

I tend to be a 5%, 50%, 90% type. Until it gets close to highly likely, I will keep it around 50%.

 

[pearl31]

I mean, there's just so much uncertainty (esp with the scenario of only 1 more win) that's it's realistically difficult to place it above 50%

 

[jdubs30]

I trust your opinion. I hope I am being too conservative right now in 50%, and not relying enough on the fundamentals (top 50 wins)

I tend to be a 5%, 50%, 90% type. Until it gets close to highly likely, I will keep it around 50%.

I hear you. I do agree with what you said earlier that when it comes down to it - if we just beat GaTech; we are leaving a lot up to other conference tourneys and potential bid stealers in conferences like the AAC, A10, and CUSA. That is not in a position we want to be in for obvious reasons.

I think if most conference tourneys are chalk with the favorites winning; a win vs. GaTech will be enough. While we may see a team like Houston make a run to the AAC finals and put themselves in real contention for a spot; you could also have a team like URI, Seton Hall or USC get bounced in the 1st round of their tourneys and cost themselves a chance. I feel as long as your "bubble matrix" ends up with a record around .500 next week, combined with mostly chalk winning the tourneys - we will be in a decent spot with 1 win.

5%, 50% or 90% makes sense - I mean, how can we really come up qualify a "35% chance" ?

We are on the right side of 50% with a 1-1 record. That can certainly move to the wrong side pretty quick; but I tend to think most of that stuff will balance out. Let's face it, the chances of every bubble team making a run is slim to none. The BE itself has 3 teams square in the last 4 in/last 4 out category (plus Xavier) - odds are at least 1 of those teams really struggles down the stretch and ges 0-1 in the conference tourney. Same with Northwestern/Illinois/Indiana, etc.

 

[jdubs30]

I mean, there's just so much uncertainty (esp with the scenario of only 1 more win) that's it's realistically difficult to place it above 50%

It is, you're right - I tend to call it being on the "right side" of 50% - but that can change if Houston won the AAC, for example

 

[orangenirvana]

Do we want Virginia or UNC tonight? Virginia would be good for our quality wins. But there's the ACCT standings we also need to consider. Someone tell me I need to know dammit!

 

[Knicks411]

Are those the actual odds? if so, then yeah, I can't imagine Wichita state would be even up with them if they played on a neutral court.

Here's one where the Vegas line is way off with KP; UVA is projected to be -3 vs UNC tonight; they're actually getting 3.5.

Score one for KP

 

[orangenirvana]

Big home win for Va Tech over Miami. That gives them four Top 50 wins.

 

[orangenirvana]

Big bubble day!

Bubble teams in bold.

(Average computer ranking, record vs. Top 50, record vs. Top 25)

Dayton (30, 3-3, 0-2) vs. VCU (37, 2-2, 1-1)
Vanderbilt (51, 4-6, 1-4) at #10 Kentucky
Seton Hall (54, 4-6, 1-5) vs. Georgetown (64, 3-9, 2-5)
Indiana (50, 4-8, 2-5) at #14 Purdue
Georgia Tech (87, 4-7, 4-4) vs. Pittsburgh (62, 3-10, 3-7)
Rhode Island (47, 2-3, 1-3) at Saint Joseph's
Providence (54, 6-7, 2-5) vs. Depaul
Ohio State (64, 4-9, 1-4) at Penn State

 

[bpo57]

Big bubble day!

Bubble teams in bold.

(Average computer ranking, record vs. Top 50, record vs. Top 25)

Dayton (30, 3-3, 0-2) vs. VCU (37, 2-2, 1-1)
Vanderbilt (51, 4-6, 1-4) at #10 Kentucky
Seton Hall (54, 4-6, 1-5) vs. Georgetown (64, 3-9, 2-5)
Indiana (50, 4-8, 2-5) at #14 Purdue
Georgia Tech (87, 4-7, 4-4) vs. Pittsburgh (62, 3-10, 3-7)
Rhode Island (47, 2-3, 1-3) at Saint Joseph's
Providence (54, 6-7, 2-5) vs. Depaul
Ohio State (64, 4-9, 1-4) at Penn State

Neither Dayton nor VCU is a bubble team imo.

 

[orangenirvana]

Neither Dayton nor VCU is a bubble team imo.

Both are ranked too high not to be considered to at least be on the bubble.

 

[bpo57]

Both are ranked too high not to be considered to at least be on the bubble.

Both in the RPI top 25. I've yet to see a bracket that has them out. Most folks have them in the 8/9 area.