Can someone please develop a mathematical formula...

[Eric15]

Can someone please develop a mathmetical formula that demonstrates when the number of dribbles and amount of time Joseph holds the ball increases, the chances of him making a positive play decreases exponentially.

 

[cuseatduke]

P(positive play) = .75*e^(-.5*((T-1)^2)), T is number of seconds Kris Joseph dribbles the ball. Pretty simple if u ask me, bet it calibrates to the data just fine.

So for example:

0 seconds: Prob = 45%, pretty good
1 seconds: Presumably gave himself some space, chance goes up: 75%
2 seconds: The exponential decline begins: back to 45%
3 seconds: 10%
5 seconds: < .1%

 

[JohnCuse44]

P = 1 / (D+T) squared

Where:

P = Probablity of a positive play
D = Number of Dribbels
T = Time in Seconds

 

[cuseatduke]

Thank you for setting me up to unleash the inner nerd.

JohnCuse I would argue that a slower dribble is more worrisome, for a given amount of time spent dribbling.

 

[JohnCuse44]

Thank you for setting me up to unleash the inner nerd.

JohnCuse I would argue that a slower dribble is more worrisome, for a given amount of time spent dribbling.

You are correct in an attempt to make a simple formula I might have made it too simple.

 

[samspann1]

How many FGs has he had today?

 

[Garbs]

so sick of watching him get stripped so easily