CFP Rankings for Nov 26

[HRE Otto IV]

Rankings based off of games vs other Top 25 teams:

1. Oregon 3-0
2. Bama 3-1
3. UGA 3-2
4. Ole Miss 2-0
ASU 2-0
6. Ohio State 2-1
BYU 2-1
8. South Carolina 2-2
K State 2-2
10. Notre Dame 1-0
11. Tennessee 1-1
Boise State 1-1
Penn State 1-1
14. A&M 1-2
15. Iowa State 0-0
Miami 0-0
17. Indiana 0-1
Clemson 0-1
Texas 0-1
UNLV 0-1
SMU 0-1
Tulane 0-1
Colorado 0-1
24. Illinois 0-2
25. Mizzou 0-3

 

[orangenauburn]

I love this but you don’t go from unranked to the CFP, ain’t happening

Oh I know but it would something to see how things would play out

 

[djorange1989]

Oh I know but it would something to see how things would play out

Agree!

 

[HRE Otto IV]

If you expand the universe to Top 25 CFP, AP, Coaches you get the below. It changes things quite a bit.

1. Notre Dame 5-0 they pick up 4 extra games
2. Bama 4-1 if we are being fair they deserve to be in
3. UGA 4-2 I think they are the best team
4. Oregon 3-0
5. Ohio State 3-1
BYU 3-1 underrated
Miami 3-1 they pick up 4 games
8. A&M 3-2
9. ASU 2-0
Iowa State 2-0
SU 2-0 why are we not ranked!
12. Tennessee 2-1
Boise State 2-1
SMU 2-1 light schedule
15. Ole Miss 2-2
K State 2-2
GA Tech 2-2
18. LSU 2-3
South Carolina 2-3
Louisville 2-3
21. Penn State 1-1 their claim to fame is Illinois weak
Texas 1-1 another weak one
Colorado 1-1
Tulane 1-1
25. Florida 1-5 wow crazy hard schedule
26. Memphis 0-0
JMU 0-0
28. Indiana 0-1 so so soft
Miami OH 0-1
Army 0-1
WSU 0-1
Louisiana 0-1
33. Clemson 0-2 really they have no business being so close
Illinois 0-2 why are they ranked? Saving PSU
UNLV 0-2 why are they ahead of SU?
Iowa 0-2
37. Mizzou 0-3 why are they ranked?
Duke 0-3 why do they get votes?
Baylor 0-3 ditto?

 

[SWC75]

We need to skyrocket in the rankings if we beat Miami. At that point it could be 2 current ranked top 20 wins. Also if Georgia Tech beats Georgia they can enter the poll as well.

Prediction: If we beat Miami, even by a substantial margin, they will fall farther than we will rise.

 

[SWC75]

Isn't this more fun that arguing about whether Ohio State is the most deserving one-loss team to get into a BCS-type playoff vs. Oregon or whether Notre Dame should be left out of a four team playoff vs. Penn State?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Really there isn't much logic to having a Top 25 when only 7 at larges are taken. What they should do is rank the current leaders in each of the 9 conferences (10 next year) in order. Then a Top 10 of everyone else. Ranking teams 16-25 season pointless. Also doing it as I suggest allows for more movement versus boxing the committee in.

Conference leaders
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. SMU
4. Boise State
5. ASU
6. Tulane
7. Louisiana
8. Miami OH
9. Jacksonville State

That gives you a better idea of who is getting a Top 4 seed and the 5th auto bid

Top 10 at larges
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Notre Dame
4. Miami
5. UGA
6. Tennessee
7. Indiana
8. Clemson
9. Bama
10. Ole Miss

That gives you a better idea of who is close to getting the 7th at large bid.

None of the other ranked teams have a shot at the auto bid.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Isn't this more fun that arguing about whether Ohio State is the most deserving one-loss team to get into a BCS-type playoff vs. Oregon or whether Notre Dame should be left out of a four team playoff vs. Penn State?

If you had the BCS it would likely be the B1G winner vs the SEC winner. But there would still be drama as any of those 4 current participants lose and things change a lot. Then Penn State, Notre Dame, and the ACC Champ get back into things.

A four team playoff would be wide open right now. I think the B1G, SEC, ACC champs would likely make it along with the B1G CG loser.

While there are more teams still alive now, do we really want the possibility of one of those teams winning it all? Like Tennessee or Bama or Ole Miss?

 

[MSOrange]

Isn't this more fun that arguing about whether Ohio State is the most deserving one-loss team to get into a BCS-type playoff vs. Oregon or whether Notre Dame should be left out of a four team playoff vs. Penn State?

I'll take either one over arguing over who is the best of the mediocre in basketball.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

If you expand the universe to Top 25 CFP, AP, Coaches you get the below. It changes things quite a bit.

1. Notre Dame 5-0 they pick up 4 extra games
2. Bama 4-1 if we are being fair they deserve to be in
3. UGA 4-2 I think they are the best team
4. Oregon 3-0
5. Ohio State 3-1
BYU 3-1 underrated
Miami 3-1 they pick up 4 games
8. A&M 3-2
9. ASU 2-0
Iowa State 2-0
SU 2-0 why are we not ranked!
12. Tennessee 2-1
Boise State 2-1
SMU 2-1 light schedule
15. Ole Miss 2-2
K State 2-2
GA Tech 2-2
18. LSU 2-3
South Carolina 2-3
Louisville 2-3
21. Penn State 1-1 their claim to fame is Illinois weak
Texas 1-1 another weak one
Colorado 1-1
Tulane 1-1
25. Florida 1-5 wow crazy hard schedule
26. Memphis 0-0
JMU 0-0
28. Indiana 0-1 so so soft
Miami OH 0-1
Army 0-1
WSU 0-1
Louisiana 0-1
33. Clemson 0-2 really they have no business being so close
Illinois 0-2 why are they ranked? Saving PSU
UNLV 0-2 why are they ahead of SU?
Iowa 0-2
37. Mizzou 0-3 why are they ranked?
Duke 0-3 why do they get votes?
Baylor 0-3 ditto?

If we change this to games played to show how deserving a team is...

6 games (2 teams)
Florida, UGA
-if UGA loses to GA Tech they will have 7 games, but if they win they likely knock GA Tech out of also receiving votes

5 games (6 teams)
A&M, Bama, Louisville, LSU, Notre Dame, South Carolina
-A&M will add Texas and South Carolina will add Clemson

4 games (6 teams)
BYU, GA Tech, K State, Miami, Ohio State, Ole Miss
-GT adds Clemson, K State adds ISU, Miami adds SU

3 games (7 teams)
Baylor, Boise St, Duke, Mizzou, Oregon, SMU, Tennessee
-a little on the light side for these teams

2 games (11 teams)
ASU, Clemson, Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, ISU, PSU, SU, Texas, Tulane, UNLV
-Clemson adds South Carolina but still light, ISU adds K State, SU adds Miami, Texas adds A&M but still light. Penn State looks really bad here. Not sure why PSU and Texas are locks for an at large when they haven't played anyone.

1 game (5 teams)
Army, Indiana, Louisiana, Miami OH, WSU
-Indiana like PSU hard to give either a home playoff game based off these.

0 games (2 teams)
JMU, Memphis
-how the heck do either get votes?

 

[SWC75]

If you had the BCS it would likely be the B1G winner vs the SEC winner. But there would still be drama as any of those 4 current participants lose and things change a lot. Then Penn State, Notre Dame, and the ACC Champ get back into things.

A four team playoff would be wide open right now. I think the B1G, SEC, ACC champs would likely make it along with the B1G CG loser.

While there are more teams still alive now, do we really want the possibility of one of those teams winning it all? Like Tennessee or Bama or Ole Miss?

If they win four games against higher seeded teams, they will deserve it. Meanwhile more schools and fan bases are still alive. You want a balance between quality and anticipation. 2 and 4 didn't achieve it. This does, although I prefer 16 with full Group of 5 participation, since I hate byes and any conference given D1A status should have a road to the title or they shouldn't be in the division.

 

[sufandu]

Trying to think of games we need to keep Alabama out. Obviously Auburn winning but I don't think that's happening. Bama lost to both Tennessee and Vanderbilt and they're playing each other this weekend. Need UT to crush Vandy and LSU to curbstomp Oklahoma. Can't have those two recent upset losses get stronger by winning their games this weekend. Also need Clemson to beat South Carolina in a CFP loser leaves town match.

Alabama is 12th but they're not in because an autobid is ranked lower. They need teams in front of them to lose to get an at large. You want all the favorites to win this weekend to keep them out.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Looking by conference OOC games vs other P4 or CFP ranked teams:

3-0 B1G (Oregon, tOSU, PSU, Indiana, Illinois)
Five teams and they played only THREE combined

6-1-2 SEC (Texas, UGA, Tennesee, Bama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, A&M, Mizzou)
This is worse than it looks because the SEC had 4 OOC games and should be playing two each.

2-2-1 ACC (Miami, SMU, Clemson)

5-1* B12 (ASU, ISU, BYU, K State, Colorado)
Kudos to the B12. K State played Zona OOC this year. Too bad for them that didn't count in the standings.

 

[NJneer12]

I love this but you don’t go from unranked to the CFP, ain’t happening

It would be 2 weeks since the championship week has to happen.

So Cuse wins and gets to 15 or 16, then week after they sneak into playoff. Lol.

Ain't happening. Fun scenario tho.

 

[NJneer12]

I know we have zero chance, however, for fun, this would be best case scenario for us.

Beat Miami.

Clemson beats South Carolina, Georgia Tech beats Georgia and Cal beats SMU.

Tulane loses to Memphis, beats Army in Conference title.

Oregon State beats Boise and UNLV beats Nevada. UNLV beats Boise in Conference championship.

Ohio beats Ball State and then wins MAC title.

UConn over UMass.

Oklahoma State beats Colorado. Arizona beats Arizona State. Northwestern beats Illinois. Auburn beats Bama. Purdue beats Indiana.

It's not as implausible as it may seem. Purdue over Indiana is the least likely, but every other matchup could go out way.

If all that were to happen, we would have an improved SoS, SoR, and would over the next two weeks move up into striking distance / fringe of CFP bracket.

So I looked into this scenario. I think Cuse is probably one of the first teams out.

SEC is still getting 3 teams in. B1G 3 minimum. Plus G5(UNLV), B12, ND, ACC get 2 minimum in thos scenario.

Who gets the last spot?

10-2 Indiana vs 9-3 Syracuse vs 10-2 Miami. 11-2 Tulane AAC champ is hanging around too.

 

[Jcuse_44]

 

[JRHEETER]

So I looked into this scenario. I think Cuse is probably one of the first teams out.

SEC is still getting 3 teams in. B1G 3 minimum. Plus G5(UNLV), B12, ND, ACC get 2 minimum in thos scenario.

Who gets the last spot?

10-2 Indiana vs 9-3 Syracuse vs 10-2 Miami. 11-2 Tulane AAC champ is hanging around too.

There is a scenario out there that B12 doesn’t get a spot in the playoffs

Will be interesting to see how that unfolds

 

[HRE Otto IV]

There is a scenario out there that B12 doesn’t get a spot in the playoffs

Will be interesting to see how that unfolds

That is unlikely though.

First Boise needs to win out. Oregon State and UNLV are standing in their way. Although I suppose UNLV could end up ahead of the B12 Champ in that case. Decent chance this happens.

Second Clemson cannot lose bigly to South Carolina and then win the ACC CG. That might put the ACC behind the B12. But to get into the ACC CG Cuse has to beat Miami. Decent chance this doesn't happen.

Third Tulane needs to beat Memphis and Army. Also probably need Army to beat UTSA to make the AAC CG a better W for Tulane. Decent chance this happens.

Fourth IMO Colorado would need to win the B12. But would they jump Tulane in that case to make the playoffs have more juice for TV?

Anyway for Colorado to even make the B12 CG they need either BYU to lose or both ASU and ISU to lose. Hard to see either ASU or BYU losing. So there is a small chance of this happening.

Would be kinda funny if Coach Prime wins a title but doesn't make the playoffs. Also it would be funny for B12anon who insists the ACC is dead.

 

[JRHEETER]

That is unlikely though.

First Boise needs to win out. Oregon State and UNLV are standing in their way. Although I suppose UNLV could end up ahead of the B12 Champ in that case. Decent chance this happens.

Second Clemson cannot lose bigly to South Carolina and then win the ACC CG. That might put the ACC behind the B12. But to get into the ACC CG Cuse has to beat Miami. Decent chance this doesn't happen.

Third Tulane needs to beat Memphis and Army. Also probably need Army to beat UTSA to make the AAC CG a better W for Tulane. Decent chance this happens.

Fourth IMO Colorado would need to win the B12. But would they jump Tulane in that case to make the playoffs have more juice for TV?

Anyway for Colorado to even make the B12 CG they need either BYU to lose or both ASU and ISU to lose. Hard to see either ASU or BYU losing. So there is a small chance of this happening.

Would be kinda funny if Coach Prime wins a title but doesn't make the playoffs. Also it would be funny for B12anon who insists the ACC is dead.

Don’t think this scenario is too far fetched to be honest.

Could see Tulane stealing an autobid.

Miami likely wins out so that secures that spot.

I think as a team in the ACC, it would be beneficial for b12 to miss the expanded playoffs and would give the ACC a bit more legitimacy a step above b12.

 

[NJneer12]

So I looked into this scenario. I think Cuse is probably one of the first teams out.

SEC is still getting 3 teams in. B1G 3 minimum. Plus G5(UNLV), B12, ND, ACC get 2 minimum in thos scenario.

Who gets the last spot?

10-2 Indiana vs 9-3 Syracuse vs 10-2 Miami. 11-2 Tulane AAC champ is hanging around too.

Make that 10-3 Tulane AAC Champ. Better scenario.

Dominoes falling! Haha

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I had mentioned it would make sense to go back to the Big 10, Big 8+2, ACC, SEC, SWC, Big East, PAC 10. If those were really the conferences then this year...

1. PAC
2. B10
3. SWC
4. Big East
5. Big East
6. Big East
7. SEC
8. SEC
9. SWC
10. B10
11. MWC
12. ACC
13. SEC
14. SEC
15. ACC
16. PAC
17. SWC
18. B8
19. B8
20. SWC
21. B8
22. MWC
23. B10
24. B8
25. B8

By conference...

PAC- 1, 16
B10- 2, 10, 23
SWC- 3, 9, 20, 17
Big East- 4, 5, 6
SEC- 7, 8, 13, 14
MWC- 11, 22
ACC- 12, 15
AAC- None
B8- 18, 19, 21, 24, 25

That spreads things nicely. The Big 8 has the most teams yet their highest is 9th best of the conferences. Big East has the most Top 10 teams! The PAC and Big 10 have top teams but not much of anything else. ACC looks like a mid major.


Edit

My mistake I forgot that I had put Tulane in the SWC. So they get a fourth team at #17. So the AAC would have none.

 

[blust2i3d4]

Aren't there 9-3 teams having better resume than us? We are 3-1 against top 25 teams. With wins over GA Tech, UNLV and Miami. Even SEC teams don't have such records. And they said 9-3 South Carolina should be considered for the play-off spot.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Did we just screw Bama?

Of the current Top 10 I think the non ACC teams are locks. The ACC, B12, MWC are locks. That leaves 1 spot left. If Clemson beats SMU, I think at 11-2 they get in still. If SMU wins then it is either 10-2 Miami or 9-3 Bama. I think they take Miami, but could see Bama too.