Clemson 4th down call right before halftime

[Millhouse]

I had no problem with it. There were 14 seconds left. If SU stuffs them (like they did) we were just going to run the clock out.

If Clemson kicks a FG, whatever.

If Clemson gets the TD, they effectively finish the game at the half. It wasn't disrespectful because the reward far exceeded the risk.

clemson also has other games to think about. that's a relatively harmless way to tell your offense "i believe in you"

versus, i don't know, say... never throwing the ball past the line of scrimmage to start the game like we did

 

[CusefanATL]

ok so we'll ignore the chance of a kick return even though you shouldn't. I'll also assume 100% certainty that they'd make the FG

that means the expected value of going for it is better if you have a 43% chance of converting.

with those receivers, that's conservative.

a 4th and goal from the 5... no chance its 43%.

a 4th and 5 from mid field is probably less than 40%... 4th and goal is probably less than 25 or 30%.

 

[Millhouse]

a 4th and goal from the 5... no chance its 43%.

a 4th and 5 from mid field is probably less than 40%... 4th and goal is probably less than 25 or 30%.

maybe in an average game, but not that game. you wouldn't want to adjust those numbers up given how clemson's offense was playing?

 

[sufandu]

You guys are missing what he said going into the half. He said he wanted to score so he could get more players into the game in the second half.

I don't really have a problem with the decision (it was obviously a bad one - and it fired up our whole team for a better 3rd quarter). But it was disrespectful of his opponent.

That's not what I heard. He said he went for it because even if they didn't make it, we were stuck deep in our territory. His remark about getting kids in the game was referring to the score going into the half, without the extra TD. He answered two different questions.

 

[CusefanATL]

maybe in an average game, but not that game. you wouldn't want to adjust those numbers up given how clemson's offense was playing?

not much... their offense was great with the entire field in front of them.

its A LOT harder to be explosive with only 15 yards in front the LOS and still 11 men defending.

i dont think clemson proved that they were effective vs our d in the short yardage. not that it mattered.

 

[TigerTown]

If it was a 7 point game of course you kick the fg. Having watch our coach there is no doubt in my mind his reasoning was he wanted to challenge the O to score, in the future we will need to make a play like that to win a game. He wants to win every play and every game (as your coach does too). The game was not in doubt, and wasn't going to be.

At that point in the game, there is no advantage to have our 5th year all american kicker take those 3 points, he doesn't need the practice if he misses one now it's not because we did not get him some extra work. I like the call by my hc, and frankly if positions were reversed I would think kicking that fg is running it up even more than going for it, even in the first half. I would want to get the chance to man up and stop them...like you did.

 

[CusefanATL]

If it was a 7 point game of course you kick the fg. Having watch our coach there is no doubt in my mind his reasoning was he wanted to challenge the O to score, in the future we will need to make a play like that to win a game. He wants to win every play and every game (as your coach does too). The game was not in doubt, and wasn't going to be.

At that point in the game, there is no advantage to have our 5th year all american kicker take those 3 points, he doesn't need the practice if he misses one now it's not because we did not get him some extra work. I like the call by my hc, and frankly if positions were reversed I would think kicking that fg is running it up even more than going for it, even in the first half. I would want to get the chance to man up and stop them...like you did.

the argument with the 7 point score that i used was that others were calling it the 'smart percentage play' which is ridiculous.

And no offense, but kicking the fg in the 1st half is not running up the score.

 

[Millhouse]

the argument with the 7 point score that i used was that others were calling it the 'smart percentage play' which is ridiculous.

And no offense, but kicking the fg in the 1st half is not running up the score.

i think your assumptions about their ability to throw and catch are ridiculous. we finally hit boyd, that's all.

 

[TheCusian]

If it was a 7 point game of course you kick the fg. Having watch our coach there is no doubt in my mind his reasoning was he wanted to challenge the O to score, in the future we will need to make a play like that to win a game. He wants to win every play and every game (as your coach does too). The game was not in doubt, and wasn't going to be.

At that point in the game, there is no advantage to have our 5th year all american kicker take those 3 points, he doesn't need the practice if he misses one now it's not because we did not get him some extra work. I like the call by my hc, and frankly if positions were reversed I would think kicking that fg is running it up even more than going for it, even in the first half. I would want to get the chance to man up and stop them...like you did.

Message received! You guys came out slow, cocky and gave us an advantage by firing us up - after that play. The exact opposite of what he envisioned according to you.

You take the points. Going for it looks cocky - because it is cocky. That's the stuff that makes you lose games. Best of luck going forward, but if you can't see it for what it was? I think you have a BCS championship liabilities walking around with a large goofy heads - Dabo and Morrison.

Humility and respect for your opponent leads to kicking the field goal.

 

[upperdeck]

we hit the QB many times. you want to a run a play in that situation with that lead fine.. you dont use your ticket to get to the BCS game.. it was a dumb call , it fired the team up.. even if successful it would have fired the
D up..

if the same thing happens with 4 min to go in the half he doesnt go for it..

 

[CusefanATL]

i think your assumptions about their ability to throw and catch are ridiculous. we finally hit boyd, that's all.

which may or may not have been the benefactor of the limited play calling due to the shorter field.

So you would have gone for it up 7 in the same situation?

 

[TigerTown]

we hit the QB many times. you want to a run a play in that situation with that lead fine.. you dont use your ticket to get to the BCS game.. it was a dumb call , it fired the team up.. even if successful it would have fired the
D up..

if the same thing happens with 4 min to go in the half he doesnt go for it..

I honestly don't remember/was thinking I couldn't tell what the hell kind of play we were trying. Whatever it was you were blowing it up pretty quickly. I agree and hope it wasn't a draw of some kind from that far out but who knows.

 

[SyrCowboy]

That call was classless by Dabo, same goes for opening the game with an onsides kick after you scored. We could have gone into the 4th down by 7 or less had we not made the mistakes we did in the third on offence.

I think our receivers need to spend allot of time with hunt watching film together and practicing routs. I knew this year was going to be rough and I do not think one of us had this down as a W when the season started. The next two weeks will be big. The team needs to keep its head up and go out and Hunt the wolfpack Saturday.

 

[Millhouse]

which may or may not have been the benefactor of the limited play calling due to the shorter field.

So you would have gone for it up 7 in the same situation?

in the 2nd quarter, I don't care what the score is, i'm going for the higher expected value. clemson's WR against SU's dbs, yeah, i'd just throw it up and feel confident. thankfully we sacked him.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

Believe it or not, using the advancednflstats.com 4th down calculator, the FG attempt was the third worse option, given the score and time remaining. That's with much better NFL kickers too. Going for it is only the 2nd best option. punting is actually the better move. now I wouldn't have any faith in a coffin corner punt but it's interesting to consider

assumptions in the calculator 29% chance of converting first down, 72% chance of making FG. knock both of those odds down and punting

when you're that far behind with so little time, you gotta start doing crazy stuff to improve win probabilities. punting to the one, getting a safety, getting the ball back near midfield... very unlikely but probably better odds than kicking that FG.

you have a 3% chance of winning kicking, 4% of winning going for it and 5% chance punting

I know that calculator is based on real games and i wonder how many times that situation actually came up so I'm a little wary. it's just interesting to think about.

Interesting. I think all things considered you have to look at who you have at those positions. Our kicker is obviously not great, so I think that 72% chance would obviously go down a good deal. Call it 50% (and i think I'm being generous there). The odds are obviously less in your favor going for it on 4th and 11. Given the situation (down 21, needing to score to match the other team, etc...) it seems the appropriate move to go to it. Someone in the thread said you need to build momentum there. A field goal does that? To me it just means chances are we traded a field goal for a touchdown. This isn't the 1937 Chicago Bears. It's not a grind it out game anymore. You need to find ways to score, and you need to take some risk in trying to score. You have an opportunity and you're trying to win, you go for it there. Even if he had made the field goal I would have been irritated.

 

[Millhouse]

Interesting. I think all things considered you have to look at who you have at those positions. Our kicker is obviously not great, so I think that 72% chance would obviously go down a good deal. Call it 50% (and i think I'm being generous there). The odds are obviously less in your favor going for it on 4th and 11. Given the situation (down 21, needing to score to match the other team, etc...) it seems the appropriate move to go to it. Someone in the thread said you need to build momentum there. A field goal does that? To me it just means chances are we traded a field goal for a touchdown. This isn't the 1937 Chicago Bears. It's not a grind it out game anymore. You need to find ways to score, and you need to take some risk in trying to score. You have an opportunity and you're trying to win, you go for it there. Even if he had made the field goal I would have been irritated.

doesn't it also seem like every time syracuse tries a head scratching FG, it always misses badly? doesn't change whether it's a good or bad decision but it always seems to work out that way

 

[upperdeck]

the FG keeps the crowd in the game and builds energy.. not making it on 4th kills everything.. the whole goal of the 3rd quarter was to get to the point where you had a shot in the 4th to win. if you have no faith in the kicker than go for it. we have away 21 points on D and at worst should have scored 9-21 more, good teams dont give away points on both sides of the ball several times a game..

 

[PhatOrange]

My take is that Shafer believed Dabo should kick and whether he felt it was rubbing it in or running it up who knows. If the score was 14-10 Shafer would’ve had a similar jacked up reaction except for maybe the “ you” part of it. And if it were 14-10 at the time I think 99% of the board would’ve echoed the same reaction as Shafer (and even Bromley).

It’s easy to coach and play from your living room. I think a lot of people forget or don’t realize how much emotion and adrenaline these guys have in the moment. They’re amped up and emotion sometimes gets the best of them. I’d prefer a calm, cool and collected leader but I have to give Shaf the benefit of the doubt here, he’s a first time head coach in his 5th game, he’s a run through the wall intense defensive coach who can wear his emotions on his sleeve. I think he’ll grow into the job and will tone it down as he does. I can certainly understand why he was pissed off at the time and I’m glad he was fiery about it.

 

[DoubleDee]

I haven read every comment, but here's my take...
He's not pissed off so much as he is fired up.

If you beat me senseless in chess for a hour, and then suddenly I get to win or do something positive, I'm gonna throw a "checkmate mother effer" and throw my fist.

That's just an example, I actually suck at chess.

 

[orangecuse]

I haven read every comment, but here's my take...
He's not pissed off so much as he is fired up.

If you beat me senseless in chess for a hour, and then suddenly I get to win or do something positive, I'm gonna throw a "checkmate mother effer" and throw my fist.

That's just an example, I actually suck at chess.

Dang! I'm trying to envision what that bad ass uttering 'motha fuka' chess dude looks like!

 

[Cuseregular]

My take is that Shafer believed Dabo should kick and whether he felt it was rubbing it in or running it up who knows. If the score was 14-10 Shafer would’ve had a similar jacked up reaction except for maybe the “ you” part of it. And if it were 14-10 at the time I think 99% of the board would’ve echoed the same reaction as Shafer (and even Bromley).

It’s easy to coach and play from your living room. I think a lot of people forget or don’t realize how much emotion and adrenaline these guys have in the moment. They’re amped up and emotion sometimes gets the best of them. I’d prefer a calm, cool and collected leader but I have to give Shaf the benefit of the doubt here, he’s a first time head coach in his 5th game, he’s a run through the wall intense defensive coach who can wear his emotions on his sleeve. I think he’ll grow into the job and will tone it down as he does. I can certainly understand why he was pissed off at the time and I’m glad he was fiery about it.

amen to that man. This Clemson fan gets it too:

http://www.tigernet.com/forums/message.jspa?messageID=14434833

 

[TheCusian]

amen to that man. This Clemson fan gets it too:

http://www.tigernet.com/forums/message.jspa?messageID=14434833

Anyone who thinks Clemson pizza lives up to New York pizza should be put to death.

 

[CusefanATL]

Anyone who thinks Clemson pizza lives up to New York pizza should be put to death.

very well said

however, varsity isnt great pizza.

 

[Jeremy L.]

We have a winner!

(I assume you're a Pats fan like me)

Giants fan actually lol. Unfortunately, I'm living the "if you can't score, stop them" on both levels.

 

[TigerTown]

Anyone who thinks Clemson pizza lives up to New York pizza should be put to death.

Clemson pizza doesn't hold up to "NY City" pizza, agree with you there. That said, I've had pizza at Varsity and ...I mean, y'all have said all week that Syracuse isn't NYC so it's not like you'd claim that style pizza as your own or anything. Varsity pizza isn't close to NYC quality stuff.