Clemson Postgame Thoughts 2

[RF2044]

8th loss of the season by 15 or more points. In the ACC, only Louisville has more (9).

The likely ACC teams bound for the NCAA Tourney are UNC (0), Duke (0), Clemson (1), UVA (7) and Wake, (1). I'd probably have Wake in over UVA looking at this, but Wake was complete garbage away from home (3-11) this season. UVA has a better record away from homeand only one loss (to UNC) when keeping their opponent under 65 points. But they've had some complete breakdowns much like Syracuse.

Correlation with winning %. R-squared is pretty weak. SU and UVA are the two dots above the trendline. SRS has a better correlation, but UVA and SU are the two outliers again (more blowouts compared to their metrics). Comparing against RPI provides the weakest correlation. According to RPI the top 4 teams in the ACC are UNC, Duke, Clemson and Syracuse.

View attachment 238481

Yikes.

I made a post a couple of weeks ago about this year being unusual in that it provides both cause for optimism and concern simultaneously [and your post demonstrates why both of those things can be true at the same time].

Lots of positive signs from Red, but lots of issues that are disconcerting with how our team plays. And granted, we've dealt with injuries, a player getting kicked off the team, etc. that haven't helped the cause. So the numbers themselves can't just be looked at in a vacuum.

BUT the numbers don't lie, we're at double-digit losses again, and likely not making the NCAA tournament for the third consecutive year.

So... lots of both good and bad? Things to be excited about, and worried about in terms of the program's future?

 

[billsin01]

Yikes.

I made a post a couple of weeks ago about this year being unusual in that it provides both cause for optimism and concern simultaneously [and your post demonstrates why both of those things can be true at the same time].

Lots of positive signs from Red, but lots of issues that are disconcerting with how our team plays. And granted, we've dealt with injuries, a player getting kicked off the team, etc. that haven't helped the cause. So the numbers themselves can't just be looked at in a vacuum.

BUT the numbers don't lie, we're at double-digit losses again, and likely not making the NCAA tournament for the third consecutive year.

So... lots of both good and bad? Things to be excited about, and worried about in terms of the program's future?

Yeah, nothing we saw should make anyone think we’re going to explode for 25 wins next year, yet I’m not sure there’s any reason to think we’re going to witness a disaster and win 8 games. Obviously either is a possibility but I think Red did a solid job in year 1 and we’ll have to wait and see on year 2. So much still up in the air.

 

[Millhouse]

8th loss of the season by 15 or more points. In the ACC, only Louisville has more (9).

The likely ACC teams bound for the NCAA Tourney are UNC (0), Duke (0), Clemson (1), UVA (7) and Wake, (1). I'd probably have Wake in over UVA looking at this, but Wake was complete garbage away from home (3-11) this season. UVA has a better record away from homeand only one loss (to UNC) when keeping their opponent under 65 points. But they've had some complete breakdowns much like Syracuse.

Correlation with winning %. R-squared is pretty weak. SU and UVA are the two dots above the trendline. SRS has a better correlation, but UVA and SU are the two outliers again (more blowouts compared to their metrics). Comparing against RPI provides the weakest correlation. According to RPI the top 4 teams in the ACC are UNC, Duke, Clemson and Syracuse.

View attachment 238481

Generally shows that scoring margin is a pretty good predictor and that we are unusual

I guess what frustrates me about them using a good predictive tool in the selection process is the regular season is over, there is nothing to predict, judge the seasons that actually happened in wins and losses

 

[Cusefan0307]

This doesn't go for last night, but I thought we quit in most of our blowouts this year.

 

[tbonezone]

they were mostly 5th year seniors ...of course they are going to be bigger

well maybe taylor can down 200 pizza's and pitchers this summer and body up inside like shiefflen.
in fact there should be 5 pies in front of him at the film table this morning.

 

[Fly Rodder]

there is nothing to predict, judge the seasons that actually happened in wins and losses

But there are more than 140 D1 teams with 18 or more wins right now, meaning that they can get to 20 total wins. So then you have to get into what makes a good win ... and the way to do that is through at least some kind of metric such as how teams actually did relative to how other teams did against common opponents controlled by possessions to put teams with various tempos on an apples to apples comparison ... so KenPom ... or NET or RPI or WarrenNolan or Evan Miya, or etc.

 

[sufan59]

A few takeaways from this game:

1. It is for the better of both parties that Joe left and specifically went to Clemson. Out of all of the transfers we have had in recent years, this one made a lot of sense, not just leaving, but where he went. Joe is in a different phase of life than our current players. Joe’s teammates now are in the same phase of life as him and experienced a lot of the same in terms of opponents in the ACC, as well as dealing with the pandemic during their college careers.
2. Clemson played very well last night. Statistically this was a very even game in every category, except Clemson simply shot the ball better.
3. The team is better if they stay and play together. It seems that even our players that have had success at there transferring schools, it took time, some of them not seeing the floor much in their first year. This could be our 2007-2008 team that didn’t perform as well as I think the players on the team thought they could, but was the springboard team for the success from 2009-2014.

 

[swish7]

people who want maliq as the starting center next season need to watch this game again in slow motion

hes a great player...but he's NOT A CENTER

he can play center, on occasion - matchup permitting

but no team with ambition would use him as their main center, imo

'If we have ambition'... Well put.

Nothing against anyone, but we need an Etan Thomas type at center.

I thought Brown was super strong, but Schiefling & Hall were much more stout & fantastic players too.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Who is this Nostradamus?

That’s actually who it was.

 

[Scooch]

To be fair it wasn't that hard to predict what we saw the past five seasons. The end of long tenures is almost always a little ugly and disappointing. Dean Smith seemed to avoid it and there have been others but it's not the norm.

What lies ahead the next two seasons is harder to say. Does Red grow as a coach? Does our recruiting pick up a bit? Do neither of those things happen and we struggle? Portal stuff, NIL stuff, the incredible variance with 3-pt shooting in the game. Really hard to say. Wouldn't be surprised to see us continue to struggle but wouldn't be shocked if we are a solid tourney team next year either if we pull the right strings and get a few bounces.

To me, it's all about recruiting. We need more talent, and much better rounded players.

It was evident from the first couple of games this season that the team couldn't shoot. I spent all December imploring them to just drive, drive, drive.

Plus we have 4 Centers on scholarship who aren't good, and 1 true 4 to boot.

We need size and shooting. Plus a pass-first PG and some D wouldn't hurt either.

I keep saying, it's remarkable that we won 20 games with this deeply flawed, limited crew. Get a lot more talent in house and we'll be fine.

 

[djcon57]

To me, it's all about recruiting. We need more talent, and much better rounded players.

It was evident from the first couple of games this season that the team couldn't shoot. I spent all December imploring them to just drive, drive, drive.

Plus we have 4 Centers on scholarship who aren't good, and 1 true 4 to boot.

We need size and shooting. Plus a pass-first PG and some D wouldn't hurt either.

I keep saying, it's remarkable that we won 20 games with this deeply flawed, limited crew. Get a lot more talent in house and we'll be fine.

That's the issue with me. We have had too many "well, you have to keep him on the floor because he can make shots" type players.

 

[Millhouse]

But there are more than 140 D1 teams with 18 or more wins right now, meaning that they can get to 20 total wins. So then you have to get into what makes a good win ... and the way to do that is through at least some kind of metric such as how teams actually did relative to how other teams did against common opponents controlled by possessions to put teams with various tempos on an apples to apples comparison ... so KenPom ... or NET or RPI or WarrenNolan or Evan Miya, or etc.

Use schedule weighted point margins to determine SOS and use that to adjust winning percentage

 

[Cstate]

We had single digit assists for the game…..not going to win on too many of those nights!

 

[djcon57]

We had single digit assists for the game…..not going to win on too many of those nights!

I get your point, but we only had 11 assists in the win vs UNC.

Reason we lost was defense. Clemson was scoring at will.

 

[djcon57]

BPM's from yesterday w/o comment:
Cuffe +14.0
Maliq +8.4
Copeland +6.7
Bell -0.4
JJ -0.5
Mintz -4.0
Taylor -5.5

 

[Fly Rodder]

I get your point, but we only had 11 assists in the win vs UNC.

Reason we lost was defense. Clemson was scoring at will.

Been on a downhill slide on defense since around the start of conference play. The defense was pretty good to start the season and then it cratered just about the time McLeod got hurt, BUT it's not like he played very much during non-con games (only averaged less than 15 mpg). So I doubt it's just him, because if he can be that big of a difference maker on defense in just 15 mpg, Red needs to figure out how to keep him on the court for 35 minutes.

 

[djcon57]

Been on a downhill slide on defense since around the start of conference play. The defense was pretty good to start the season and then it cratered just about the time McLeod got hurt, BUT it's not like he played very much during non-con games (only averaged less than 15 mpg). So I doubt it's just him, because if he can be that big of a difference maker on defense in just 15 mpg, Red needs to figure out how to keep him on the court for 35 minutes.

View attachment 238508

I think the depth and general fatigue is being underrated by everyone including myself. Brown has been banging with bigger guys for 40 mins in 2 games a week for like 2 months now. It's got to take its toll.

Not just McLeod but Benny as well.

 

[ar inj]

But- Our 5's could defend the CORNER 3!

A big, strong, skilled center would be a very welcome addition.
Would be great to watch OUR big guy demolish the other team inside.

I still remember when SU "Big-Boyed" UNC in the Garden 87-71 with a 22-1 run to open the 2nd half.

OMG that was November 21, 2009! I surprised I can remember back that long ago, but those were the days ...

 

[billsin01]

To me, it's all about recruiting. We need more talent, and much better rounded players.

It was evident from the first couple of games this season that the team couldn't shoot. I spent all December imploring them to just drive, drive, drive.

Plus we have 4 Centers on scholarship who aren't good, and 1 true 4 to boot.

We need size and shooting. Plus a pass-first PG and some D wouldn't hurt either.

I keep saying, it's remarkable that we won 20 games with this deeply flawed, limited crew. Get a lot more talent in house and we'll be fine.

Agree with all of this, particularly with more well-rounded players, at least ideally. I'm sure I'm in the minority here but I think switchable size (versus a traditional center) would be another way to address deficiencies through the portal. One issue we have is that Brown isn't a traditional big, but the other we have is that we are often running a lineup without much size when you consider Taylor is 6'6" with decent but not elite athleticism and Bell is 6'7" or so and not an interior player. I think a front line that had a bit more size and athleticism could be an option versus a traditional big who may really struggle with switches on the perimeter.

 

[djcon57]

Agree with all of this, particularly with more well-rounded players, at least ideally. I'm sure I'm in the minority here but I think switchable size (versus a traditional center) would be another way to address deficiencies through the portal. One issue we have is that Brown isn't a traditional big, but the other we have is that we are often running a lineup without much size when you consider Taylor is 6'6" with decent but not elite athleticism and Bell is 6'7" or so and not an interior player. I think a front line that had a bit more size and athleticism could be an option versus a traditional big who may really struggle with switches on the perimeter.

Yep...How often did Brown and a traditional center even play together?

 

[sugrad68]

I think the depth and general fatigue is being underrated by everyone including myself. Brown has been banging with bigger guys for 40 mins in 2 games a week for like 2 months now. It's got to take its toll.

Not just McLeod but Benny as well.

Can you imagine having to play back-to-back games in the ACC tournament, assuming we win game 1, against a team with fresh legs?

 

[Scooch]

Agree with all of this, particularly with more well-rounded players, at least ideally. I'm sure I'm in the minority here but I think switchable size (versus a traditional center) would be another way to address deficiencies through the portal. One issue we have is that Brown isn't a traditional big, but the other we have is that we are often running a lineup without much size when you consider Taylor is 6'6" with decent but not elite athleticism and Bell is 6'7" or so and not an interior player. I think a front line that had a bit more size and athleticism could be an option versus a traditional big who may really struggle with switches on the perimeter.

Agreed. Give me a couple of thick 6’ 7” dudes who can move over our usual beanpole 5 and soft 4 any day.

 

[721Comstock]

Agreed. Give me a couple of thick 6’ 7” dudes who can move over our usual beanpole 5 and soft 4 any day.

 

[Hopkins16]

My takeaway is that it took a 5th year (on another team) for JG3 to finally get in shape and become an efficient scorer.

 

[hoopsupstate]

My takeaway is that it took a 5th year (on another team) for JG3 to finally get in shape and become an efficient scorer.

He’s in great shape because he had no choice. For the first time in college he was held to higher standards. He didn’t have free reign to do whatever he wanted. He’s been held accountable at Clemson and you can see how more efficient he has become. Joe has always been extremely competitive. Clemson has brought out the best in him in both ends of the court. Brownell takes no crap from anyone.