Close Games

[SWC75]

Mike Lindsley asked the question: what will you remember most about the 2011-2012 Syracuse University basketball season? His choice was the ability of the team to win close games, (even though the season ended with a close loss). I decided to check the record in winning close games, (which I’ll define as games won or lost by single digits or in overtime), in the Boeheim era:

1976-77: 4-2
1977-78: 5-5
1978-79: 7-4
1979-80: 9-3
1980-81: 7-8
1981-82: 9-6
1982-83: 6-6
1983-84: 11-4
1984-85: 10-6
1985-86: 6-4
1986-87: 11-5
1987-88: 5-8
1988-89: 6-8
1989-90: 12-5
1990-91: 12-3
1991-92: 12-5
1992-93: 10-6
1993-94: 10-4
1994-95: 8-9
1995-96: 11-5
1996-97: 5-5
1997-98: 14-4
1998-99: 3-5
1999-00: 6-3
2000-01: 10-2
2001-02: 7-6
2002-03: 15-2
2003-04: 10-4
2004-05: 8-5
2005-06: 10-5
2006-07: 6-10
2007-08: 10-8
2008-09: 9-3
2009-10: 6-3
2010-11: 12-6
2011-12: 15-3
Total: 317-180 (.638) Average over 36 years: 9-5

Comments: Finding a pattern here is hard. I used to think the key to winning close games is having a good point guard but the 1987-88 team went 5-8 and the 1988-89 team 6-8 with Sherman Douglas. You might think veteran players were important: the final Louie and Bouie team was 9-3, better than any of the three prior years. But the 1986-87 team had a better record that the two that followed and the very young national title team was our best at 15-2. I thought maybe our best perimeter teams might be our best teams in close games because they could hit those buzzer shots better. The GMAC teams were 43-16. But the tri-captains era, when we were a perimeter oriented team, we were only 22-20. They were also our best free-throw shooting team. It seems clear that our best teams have the best record in close games but in which direct does that go: did we do well in close games because those were our best teams or do we regard those teams as our best because of their record in close games, which gave them a better overall record?

Could it simply be a spin of the roulette wheel? Are some teams just luckier than others?

 

[orangehomer]

there has to be a luck component because you can't control certain things, like opponents making nba 3's. maybe there is a correlation with free throw shooting?

 

[BuffOrange]

It seems clear that our best teams have the best record in close games but in which direct does that go: did we do well in close games because those were our best teams or do we regard those teams and our best because of their record in close games, which gave them a better overall record?

Most definitely the latter. Your research that finds little correlation is a point in favor of us kenpom/sagarin stat geeks imo. You'll often hear JB himself scoff at the notion that winning close games helps you in the tournament: "yah we can we 6 of these in a row but lose 1 in March" or something.