No, you have to give it the first 10 games or so, at a minimum.
Last year, we played 11 games before Christmas, and then 2 more before New Year's.
Six were against "lesser" teams, all of which we won, if a couple were "just barely". And we lost to all 5/7 of the P5 teams we played, with only 4 of the 7 games being close.
So, by Christmas / New Year's, we don't have the schedule yet, but we can figure 6 or 7 tomato cans, but not too lowly rated, and we need to win by 20, not 2-6 points.
As for the P5 games, we have be at break even, and we have to be generally competitive. Decent looking, functional defense, and guys creating shots for each other, rebounding, running, motion on offense.
We should have a pretty good idea by then. I'm hoping for the best. It would be best for SU for Autry to turn it around, win 25 games and get a 8 seed in the NCAA tournament. That would be great.