Connelly Preview

[Ish88888]

Thats about as good a preview as we'll get.

Depth is the defensive problem in my opinion. They have to do whatever it takes to get the 2s more snaps in September.

I'm worried about the safety spot. Hopefully Cordy stays healthy, doesn't bite on play fakes and the 2s grow up fast.

True, we need guys, athletes with size to grow up fast and play in the secondary. I love cordys spirit but he will keep killing us in coverage.

 

[Ish88888]

Generally agree with most of this and it is amazing that he accurately goes this far in depth for every team.

-If this group of WR’s puts up big numbers, I’ll pretty much never worry about a WR corps under Dino again. This would seem to be the low water mark for a while.

-It’s really hard to overestimate how important Devito is. If he ends up being really good, we would appear to be pretty well setup starting next season(and maybe even this year if ED gets hurt again), when the schedule lightens up, the young WR’s have a year of reps, and we have the two transfers.

-Boston College going from likely win to us being an underdog is just such a killer. A few years ago, we had them sharpied in as a win every year. That could be the difference in whether we bowl, which is huge for our perception. There’s just not a lot of low hanging fruit in the conference/division as BC and Wake have improved. We're going to have to clean up in the OOC every year.

Many will look strictly at the win totals, but this is what a rebuild is supposed to look like. We are slowly cleaning out older players not recruited for this system and getting what appear to be more talented players, the best of which seem to be redshirting(Devito, Tyrell Richards, Coley, Cam Jordan, Melifonwu, etc.). It's been a slower process than many of us thought, but it seems like the worm will turn eventually as Dino is doing it the right way.

BC and teams like BC will continue to be a threat. Yes, its depth in part, but this system hasn't proven it can stack up against old school, downhill offenses like BC.

 

[gbo]

Can someone post a link to his write-up on Clemson? Can't seem to find it.

 

[TheCusian]

Can someone post a link to his write-up on Clemson? Can't seem to find it.

Not out yet. Next week.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

He forgot to mention Cordy. That's a big load of experience.

A guy who has played in 3 out of 24 games in this system doesn't really count as experienced.

 

[bnoro]

A guy who has played in 3 out of 24 games in this system doesn't really count as experienced.

And he did mention Cordy - during the offense part of the article.

 

[elimunelson]

And he did mention Cordy - during the offense part of the article.

Cordy shouldn't be even in the discussion until he can stay on the field for more than 4-5 quarters a season. He's like this generation Dan Conley but less dependable and less talented.

The ACC reality for us is we need to figure out 2 wins a season in division. Last year the game that really angers me is the FSU one b/c they were completely wounded animal situation, lost the will to compete, etc. We need to hope that we are playing teams in November that are ambivalent about crappy bowl games and are operating at less than 100% motivation. We can catch these teams on our rebuild.

 

[TheCusian]

Cordy shouldn't be even in the discussion until he can stay on the field for more than 4-5 quarters a season. He's like this generation Dan Conley but less dependable and less talented.

The ACC reality for us is we need to figure out 2 wins a season in division. Last year the game that really angers me is the FSU one b/c they were completely wounded animal situation, lost the will to compete, etc. We need to hope that we are playing teams in November that are ambivalent about crappy bowl games and are operating at less than 100% motivation. We can catch these teams on our rebuild.

I don’t think we need to rely on hope that our opponents will phone it in. We can win straight up against any team in our division, this year.

Injuries and team issues help of course - but remember in the FSU game our QB was playing on one foot. Everyone is dealing with a bunch of stuff late. We’ve just lacked the depth to deal with it well.

 

[gbo]

I don’t think we need to rely on hope that our opponents will phone it in. We can win straight up against any team in our division, this year.

Injuries and team issues help of course - but remember in the FSU game our QB was playing on one foot. Everyone is dealing with a bunch of stuff late. We’ve just lacked the depth to deal with it well.

You're right. Clemson didn't mail it and you beat us. The problem that a rebuilding team has is the ACC Atlantic is the second toughest division in football. Just not any easy wins there. We lost to you guys, beat State in OT, and were tied with BC 7-7 with 12 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. It's difficult for every team.

 

[Orijinal]

Cordy shouldn't be even in the discussion until he can stay on the field for more than 4-5 quarters a season. He's like this generation Dan Conley but less dependable and less talented.

The ACC reality for us is we need to figure out 2 wins a season in division. Last year the game that really angers me is the FSU one b/c they were completely wounded animal situation, lost the will to compete, etc. We need to hope that we are playing teams in November that are ambivalent about crappy bowl games and are operating at less than 100% motivation. We can catch these teams on our rebuild.

Wow. Some really harsh words for Cordy.

 

[elimunelson]

Wow. Some really harsh words for Cordy.

Not at all. Dan Conley was maybe a top 5 LB in Syracuse history who was plagued with injuries. Cordy is a talented defender who can't play more than a game here or there. Me mentioning Cordy in the same breath as Conley is probably more than i should do.

I think our team needs some luck to succeed. I know people don't want to hear it but it's true. We're just not good enough yet to hope we match up with other teams and beat them straight up. Clemson we caught for sure and it was a fantastic win. It can happen but for us to get to the 8-10 win range, we need luck in the equation.

 

[TheCusian]

You're right. Clemson didn't mail it and you beat us. The problem that a rebuilding team has is the ACC Atlantic is the second toughest division in football. Just not any easy wins there. We lost to you guys, beat State in OT, and were tied with BC 7-7 with 12 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. It's difficult for every team.

Agreed. I think there is a tendency to compare us to Kansas and Rutgers. They are at the bottom of their divisions/conferences - but have zero hope in competing with the top teams in conference. I think we have more in common with Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Ole Miss in the SEC. Or Iowa State in the Big 12. Dangerous.

 

[OrangeinBoston]

I don’t think we need to rely on hope that our opponents will phone it in. We can win straight up against any team in our division, this year.

How can you say this now with all the uncertainties? Is the OL any better? Is the D line able to mount a pass rush? What about the LBs? Who replaces the WRs from last year? Can we run the ball? I'm not saying all those questions can't be answered in the affirmative. But, we won't know until game 3 of the season (FSU).

 

[TheCusian]

Babers has the close-game prowess, too. His 10-6 record in one-possession games is backed up as legitimate by the advanced stats. He’s going to squeeze the most possible wins out of his team’s statistical profile.

This was what I was talking about here.

Counting his two years at Bowling Green, Babers is now .500 in September (9-9), good in October (10-4), and somewhere between shaky and bad in November and beyond (7-13). His offense tends to do its part when its quarterback is healthy (not an issue at BGSU, very much an issue at Syracuse), but his defenses putter out.

His BGSU teams gave up 120 points in their last three games in 2014 and 126 in their last four during the 2015 MAC title run. At Cuse, the late-season defensive disasters have been downright amazing: 54-0 to Clemson and 76-61 to Pitt in 2016, 64-43 to Wake Forest, 56-10 to Louisville, and 42-14 to Boston College in 2017.

I know what you’re thinking: it’s the offense, right? The tempo and explosiveness of the Babers offense wears the defense out late in the season. That has to be it, right?

That certainly didn’t help at BGSU, where the Falcons’ D was on the field for 1,156 plays in 2014 (second-most in FBS) and 1,084 in 2015 (third-most). But in his two seasons in New York, Cuse’s defense has been in the bottom 40 in total snaps both years. And it’s cratered all the same.
/QUOTE]

This is super interesting. It's not just tempo/explosiveness leaving the D out to dry. He goes on to mention what's been talked about here a lot: defensive depth.

If the offense is more consistent and efficient, that would help, too. One of these damn years, quarterback Eric Dungey might stay healthy for an entire season. It’s probably not a coincidence that these defensive collapses came when he was hurt; then again, his backup might be pretty good this time.

More recently discussed stuff... It's good that he noted the difference in the team with and without ED. And that there is a correlation between defensive breakdowns and offensive efficiency. TD is really nice insurance this year. If nothing else - it will be exciting and not an instant tank if ED goes down.

We know what Ward wants to do with this defense; he just hasn’t had enough pieces to do it yet. Syracuse was pretty good at taking the fight to opponents on standard downs and forcing them off-schedule. The Orange ranked 41st in stuff rate (run stops at or behind the line), 44th in standard downs sack rate, and 49th in overall Standard Downs S&P+.

Any advantages disappeared on passing downs. The Orange were 101st in Passing Downs S&P+ and produced the worst sack rate in the country (1.3 percent) on such downs. Either Ward didn’t trust his secondary enough to risk blitzing or the blitz didn’t get home. But opponents had a better passer rating on third-and-long (144.0) than they did on first down (135.5). It’s not supposed to work that way.

This is crazy and shows just how close we were to having a good defense. We know that on 3rd down, until Martin went down - we were top 5 in 3rd down defense %. We were horrid without a big roaming Safety to cover in the back of the zone. Horrid. There are players on the team now that fit this mold. Will be interesting to who is there. I want to believe Cordy can do it. But I think he might be better at the 3rd CB in the nickel.

 

[TheCusian]

OrangeinBoston - There are no certainties. There's a very good chance that the OL will be better. The DL too. I'm not worried about WR. The system + available talent + camp reps = someone will emerge. I think we'll be better at RB. (But if ED stays healthy, we proved that we don't need RB to be a strength.)

We never know - it's always projection. But I think we have proof of being able to compete when ED is healthy in the close loss at Miami, the wins vs Pitt and Clemson last year. I don't think we'll win all of our conference games - that's madness. But we can compete with them all and have a legit shot at winning all of them.

 

[TheCusian]

What will 2018 hold for the Veer and Shoot?

Some mention of us here...

 

[Orijinal]

Not at all. Dan Conley was maybe a top 5 LB in Syracuse history who was plagued with injuries. Cordy is a talented defender who can't play more than a game here or there. Me mentioning Cordy in the same breath as Conley is probably more than i should do.

I think our team needs some luck to succeed. I know people don't want to hear it but it's true. We're just not good enough yet to hope we match up with other teams and beat them straight up. Clemson we caught for sure and it was a fantastic win. It can happen but for us to get to the 8-10 win range, we need luck in the equation.

I definitely don't see us winning 8, but 6 is doable and what we NEED this year. To get to 6, we can't find ourselves in dogfights in the 4th quarter with WMU, Wagner, or UCONN. Those games will be the biggest portender of a .500 season, better, or worse.

Gotta be bigger and better there. Then worry about 3 more wins in conference

 

[Whitey23]

ACC Summary
The ACC is incredibly deep, but probably only has one elite


Tier 4
13. Syracuse
14. Virginia

Let’s call this Tier 3A instead. I think these two teams have almost as much potential as the teams in the loaded Tier 3; the only difference is that there’s maybe not quite as much upside.

Syracuse’s Dino Babers needs one more year to get his receiving corps to where it needs to be, and Bronco Mendenhall needs another year to build the depth to sustain UVA’s early-2017 level. But these teams could still get to six or seven wins.

 

[SWC75]

Agreed. I think there is a tendency to compare us to Kansas and Rutgers. They are at the bottom of their divisions/conferences - but have zero hope in competing with the top teams in conference. I think we have more in common with Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Ole Miss in the SEC. Or Iowa State in the Big 12. Dangerous.

Or Baylor at the beginning of this decade - after consecutive 4-8 seasons in 2008-09.

 

[Pearl309]

Its rare to see a cuse football preview where the author actually knows about the team.

I love bad previews
Who can anticipate finding out our qb’s name is actually Eldrick Durgen and we actually beat Clemson at Clemson last year.