Cuse +7.5 at Miami

[cliftonparksufan]

Take the points!!!

 

[AlaskaSU]

Espn gives us a 15% chance.

 

[blust2i3d4]

Espn gives us a 15% chance.

It is based on the records so far. But I think our team has the mojo and will win.

 

[Orangezoo]

It is based on the records so far. But I think our team has the mojo and will win.

It's based on more than that but the matchup is good for us given they have nothing inside to handle Jesse

 

[AlaskaSU]

It is based on a metric. Our record difference is not that great. Same ACC record.

 

[690West]

I think the Canes are 10-0 at home.

 

[Orangello]

Not touching this line

 

[AlaskaSU]

Hopefully they are due for a home loss.

 

[jncuse]

It is based on a metric. Our record difference is not that great. Same ACC record.

Vegas appears to be using a similar efficiency metric to set lines as KenPom for college basketball - see it line after line for a number of years now. Using KP efficiency metrics Miami is about 6.8 pts better than us per 100 possessions ... and given the teams average about 68 possessions per game, that equates to Miami being 4.5 points better in a game per KP model -- add in the typical 3.5 home court point advantage and we get 8 points.

If you believe in very recent trends (i.e the last 2 or 3 games for each team) there may be some bets to be found because team efficiency considers a larger data pool than just a few recent games.

 

[dwilmont44]

Everyone on Reddit is picking Syracuse with the points.

That makes me nervous.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Everyone on Reddit is picking Syracuse with the points.

That makes me nervous.

66% of the betting public taking Cuse at +7 with the points.

 

[690West]

66% of the betting public taking Cuse at +7 with the points.

If lovin that line is Wong, I don’t wanna be right.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

If lovin that line is Wong, I don’t wanna be right.

Groan. LOL!!! As long as we keep Wong and Omier in check we should have a good chance.

 

[Orangezoo]

I think the Canes are 10-0 at home.

Yeah hopefully they are due. We had them on the road last year but lack of ball handlers and awful defense doomed us. Very similar result at home just more bad D than turnovers.

They are even smaller inside this year. They will have to double Jesse I assume so gonna be a man open almost every possession.

 

[721Comstock]

Yeah hopefully they are due. We had them on the road last year but lack of ball handlers and awful defense doomed us. Very similar result at home just more bad D than turnovers.

They are even smaller inside this year. They will have to double Jesse I assume so gonna be a man open almost every possession.

And Jesse seems to be getting better at passing out of doubles, knowing where a teammate is open.

This is where Maliq helps Jesse a LOT.
Making himself available on the low block for a dump down dime from Jesse when he’s doubled.

We must make them pay when they try to do that.

 

[OptimusOtto]

It seems like as a whole they’re not a great 3 point shooting team. Have to limit turnovers. Winning on the road is never easy but it can go a long way towards making the tourney an actual possibility.

 

[007]

And Jesse seems to be getting better at passing out of doubles, knowing where a teammate is open.

This is where Maliq helps Jesse a LOT.
Making himself available on the low block for a dump down dime from Jesse when he’s doubled.

We must make them pay when they try to do that.

This is a good point about Brown making himself available. It’s another subtle indication of how well he understands the game. There are many small and not so small examples of this.

The kid is impressive.

 

[M2MPrinciples]

It's probably recency bias, but I like us with the points, maybe even a little on the ML where we are +260.

Miami's offensive blueprint is not well-suited for the zone: They finish well inside and are very average from deep, and they don't shoot threes much and they don't move the ball (but we all know the zone will give them open looks). They're also a bad defensive rebounding team, but similar to threes, the zone will give them some. We'll have to keep them in check in transition, though - Not like the first 30 minutes against Notre Dame.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

This is a good point about Brown making himself available. It’s another subtle indication of how well he understands the game. There are many small and not so small examples of this.

The kid is impressive.

He is The Opportunist. Very high IQ.

 

[690West]

Little bit of 315 money comin in. I see -6.5 now some places

 

[Jake]

Good defensive teams worry me more than good offensive teams.

 

[Gotothehole]

Love this line.

 

[Cuseball]

It seems like as a whole they’re not a great 3 point shooting team. Have to limit turnovers. Winning on the road is never easy but it can go a long way towards making the tourney an actual possibility.

I think they may be a little better from three than overall stats suggest. Wing is about 35% for the year but shooting over 40% from three at home this year. Nigel Pack is struggling a bit this year at 35% from three but was over 40% from three his first two college seasons. I think they will hit threes but we can’t have them going off. We have to win the rebounding and pony a in the paint battle and limit turnovers. We’ve got a decent chance for a solid win tonight.

Cuse!

 

[kirbivore]

Everyone on Reddit is picking Syracuse with the points.

That makes me nervous.

The masses are asses