Cuse opens as 1.5 point dogs to Duke

[cliftonparksufan]

Probably our smallest spread to them ever. We bring our A game, we win.

Protect the ball. Don't give Duke 2nd chances. No stupid fouls (Jesse)!!!

 

[Eric15]

Probably our smallest spread to them ever. We bring our A game, we win.

Protect the ball. Don't give Duke 2nd chances. No stupid fouls (Jesse)!!!

I assume we were favored against them in that first game in the Dome in 2014, but were almost certainly underdogs in every ACC matchup after that.

 

[Gotothehole]

The points and the under

 

[Deleted member 8116]

Really tired of losing to Dook. Need a W.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

The points and the under

In the last eleven games, Cuse is 8-2-1 vs the spread and 7-4 taking the Over.

In the last twelve games, Duke is 2-10 vs the spread and 4-8 taking the Over.

 

[Cusefan0307]

In the last eleven games, Cuse is 8-2-1 vs the spread and 7-4 taking the Over.

In the last twelve games, Duke is 2-10 vs the spread and 4-8 taking the Over.

It also shows that kenpom is not all that accurate and I used to religiously follow him.

 

[CardiacCuse]

Probably our smallest spread to them ever. We bring our A game, we win.

Protect the ball. Don't give Duke 2nd chances. No stupid fouls (Jesse)!!!

ever?

no.

but winnable game? certainly

 

[Nicknack]

I think we're a decent team and can see us winning by 3 or 4, setting up a huge game for us against Clemson next week. We win tonight and then knock off Clemson on the road, we will be closer to the bubble than some people think.

 

[JustPherU]

I think we're a decent team and can see us winning by 3 or 4, setting up a huge game for us against Clemson next week. We win tonight and then knock off Clemson on the road, we will be closer to the bubble than some people think.

Winning at Clemson will be much tougher than beating Duke.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Winning at Clemson will be much tougher than beating Duke.

Clemson is 7-1 at home in conference.

Duke is 2-6 on the road in conference.

We can beat Clemson but a lot of dominoes will need to fall right to win.

 

[Nicknack]

Winning at Clemson will be much tougher than beating Duke.

 

[Ragman2000]

Agreed...Clemson is a paper...wait for it...wait for it...

 

[FrancoPizza]

It also shows that kenpom is not all that accurate and I used to religiously follow him.

Huh? Record vs the spread is not a rational way to judge Kenpom. I mean, in any given game you’re going to either beat the spread or you don’t. All it suggests is whether a team may be trending up or down, and it’s a very loose coupling at that.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Huh? Record vs the spread is not a rational way to judge Kenpom. I mean, in any given game you’re going to either beat the spread or you don’t. All it suggests is whether a team may be trending up or down, and it’s a very loose coupling at that.

KenPom and the net are very tied to spreads. Duke played well early so that helps their metrics.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

KenPom and the net are very tied to spreads. Duke played well early so that helps their metrics.

They are tied in the sense that KenPom or Net dictate lines but they are using the same data to arrive at very similar conclusions. For example, Duke is +10.4 in ESPN's BPI (which is per 70 possession) and SU is +5.7, if you adjust KP's score (which is per 100 possessions) to 70 it comes out +10.6 and +6.

Further, ATS records aren't really measure of skill or predictive of the future. If someone flips a coin 11 times and gets 8 heads, it doesn't mean they are good at flipping heads. SU and Duke are out on the tails of the distribution of ATS but well within what would be expected and about 12% would be expected to have same or better/worse (respectively) ATS records just based on random variation.

The aggregate spread results this season on a few variables:

4+ Days Rest	49.9%​
2-3 Days Rest	49.8%​
1 Days Rest	51.1%​
Rest Advantage	49.1%​
After win	50.1%​
After loss	49.9%​
Home dogs	52.2%​

Home dogs are a little high this season in covering, it is not as high in the past 5 season combined, but even so, if you had bet on all of them you would still be losing money.