1) at times, people plea guilty to things they didn't do. It happens more than you would like to think, especially in low level, non violent type crimes
2) there are many, many elements that go into bail. The determination of bail isn't just "how guilty does the court think this guy is". Bail is meant to ensure someone will appear at subsequent hearings and not flee the jurisdiction. You simply cannot draw accurate inferences of guilty from an individual's bail.
I don't know this kid or his case and am not commenting in any way on the particulars. Syracuse will either take him, or they won't, and i'll be fine either way. I'm just pointing out the flaws in some of your assumptions.