Dear american football...

[billsin01]

It has already passed hockey and the NBA in terms of attendance.

Complete and utter nonsense. Avg. attendance in less than half the games with tix costing a fraction of nba tix does not equal passing either sport. Not to mention the size of arenas vs stadiums. This is a disingenuous argument.

 

[billsin01]

Remember when the Sixers were selling tickets for a dime?

No but as a general rule we're still not close. I can get field level dc united tix for $30 bear midfield. It's fine but it in no way, shape or form constitutes 'out-drawing'.

 

[Guinness]

Soccer has the same problem that lacrosse does. Meaning it is largely a middle class and up sport. It needs a transcendent player to help break it out like golf did with Tiger. Someone to break the mold and bring all the people in who normally would not watch/play.

 

[Millhouse]

Soccer has the same problem that lacrosse does. Meaning it is largely a middle class and up sport. It needs a transcendent player to help break it out like golf did with Tiger. Someone to break the mold and bring all the people in who normally would not watch/play.

i think golf has dipped back to more normal levels. the american media likes to pretend like gretzky's legacy is bringing hockey to the warm USA cities but i don't think it's as much as they say . no one was as transcendent as gretzky except maybe his wife or daughter and the nhl is better off but not that much

 

[Guinness]

the american media likes to pretend like gretzky's legacy is bringing hockey to the warm USA cities but i don't think it's as much as they say .

To me that was hockey's mistake. Much like NASCAR they tried to expand too far out of their natural fanbase.

 

[dollarbill44]

Football has nothing to worry about.

Baseball and hockey on the other hand...

Reasonable people can disagree about Futbol vs Football. But Football has plenty to worry about without Futbol in the picture.

Hockey shouldn't even be considered in the discussion because it is fringe enough already and a winter sport. It's always been kind of insulated except for self-inflicted issues.

 

[UnknownOrange]

I'd be a bit worried if I were you. This wasn't some "oh, how cute a soccer game is on" moment for the american sports fan. This was a "holy cow, this is freaking great" tournament.

Add this to the concussion issue and I think there's legit reason for concern.

Some 10 year old future Bo Jackson might choose soccer with a nudge from mom and dad.

Not to knock soccer - I really enjoy watching it - but this is still the USA - we will cheer for anything that has our country attached to it. Also soccer has a HUGE concussion issue of it's own. Repeated shots to the head are not good no matter what sport you're child is playing

 

[Millhouse]

Not to knock soccer - I really enjoy watching it - but this is still the USA - we will cheer for anything that has our country attached to it. Also soccer has a HUGE concussion issue of it's own. Repeated shots to the head are not good no matter what sport you're child is playing

i think the soccer concussion issue is overblown. (and i got at least two playing soccer) but even if it is, it's much easier to fix in soccer than it is in football. take heading out of the game, wear soft helmets and hide the luscious soccer rocker hair. i used to have to wear a big stupid foam helmet in middle school when i played goalie. there's a czech goalie who wears a rugby looking helmet.

heading the ball isn't the problem people make it out to be. going up for headers and smashing heads together or getting kicked in the head when you go low to head the ball, different story.

much easier to fix than football with the ridiculous heads up bear hugging that no one will ever do or hockey

 

[cuseincincy]

Ok, I really don't have time to read all 7 pages of posts so I apologize since I'm sure I'm only going to say things others already have.

1. Soccer is not going to replace football in the US. That's just silly.
2. The concussion issue will not be part anydownfall. I saw more potential concussions during some of these WC games than many NFL games. From personal experience, my oldest son (a football player) got his first (and only) concussion while wrestling. My youngest son got his concussion playing basketball. The only concussion I remember getting was playing...soccer! The therapists at the local sports medicine clinic tell me they see more injuries from girls soccer than they do football.
3. I really got into this years World Cup like many of you. But unless team USA is playing again next week I'll only watch the rest of the WC if I happen to be sitting down to watch something and its on. I won't rearrange my schedule and make plans to watch it like I did for the USA games. Also, unless Team USA has another match in the next month or two I doubt I watch another soccer game on TV for maybe another 4 years unless we happen to qualify for the Olympics.
4. We hear this same rhetoric every few years and then it goes away. It's like the Olympics, how many of you watch any track or swimming events on TV? Do you make plans to watch them? Do you have parties to watch them, go to sports bars and find them on TV? Didn't think so.
5. In the US, the World Cup is more about international competition than soccer. That is what is popular and will stay popular, international competition, not the particular game they are playing. I could care less about the Premier League or any other pro league including the MLS. I know many do. But nowhere near the number s of NFL fans.
6. Now here's my biggie that many will think is heresy but...not only is soccer not going to grow in the USA but it is not as popular as it was a few years ago. First hand experience is from my 14 year old son who still plays soccer and also refs younger kids. There aren't as many teams as there used to be. The local soccer facility that has about 20 fields is 1/2 empty during the busy season. This time of year it is rare to see even one game going on. A few years ago when both my kids played it was full, all the time. Our baseball organization is actually growing and lacrosse is really taking off. Also, our high school has not fielded a freshman soccer team for about 4 years dye to not enough interest from over 2600 students.

 

[cuseinchina]

They just renewed it. They got a 5X increase in rights fees. That's going to improve salaries across the board, which in turn will improve the talent level.

what does that translate to roughly for league minimum salaries and average salary? Just a guestimate based on how the numbers work?

 

[cuseinchina]

Now here's my biggie that many will think is heresy but...not only is soccer not going to grow in the USA but it is not as popular as it was a few years ago. First hand experience is from my 14 year old son who still plays soccer and also refs younger kids. There aren't as many teams as there used to be. The local soccer facility that has about 20 fields is 1/2 empty during the busy season. This time of year it is rare to see even one game going on. A few years ago when both my kids played it was full, all the time. Our baseball organization is actually growing and lacrosse is really taking off. Also, our high school has not fielded a freshman soccer team for about 4 years dye to not enough interest from over 2600 students.

You are anecdotally noticing a trend that is actually good for soccer in a perverse way. Youth sports participation is plummeting. looking at 2012 compared to 2008, basketball is down -6%, football down -5%, little league -7%, baseball bat sales -18%, and youth sports participation overall - 4% - this compares to a population change of -0.6%. And you can bet hat 2008 was a down year given the financial crisis so the numbers are probably worse than this in reality. But soccer participation was flat over the period and climbed 5% at the high school level. lacross grew triple digit but off of a tiny tiny base and remains insignificant. The point is kids are doing more interent and less sports, and parents are afraid to let their kids do anything where they might be hurt. That said, the athletic kids are always going to be doing stuff and getting the weak links out might improve the level of competition in some ways in all these sports. But in the face of an overall decline in participation, soccer is taking share from the other sports. It's growth rate has petered out, but it's a very close 2nd to basketball and catching up fast.

 

[texascpa]

There is already 13 (13 million)times more Soccer players in the US than there are HS football players (as of 2/14 1.08 million) why has this participation not equaled ratings?

While I understand your sentiment and we probably agree on the end result, you can't compare total soccer participation against just HS football participation. That's disingenuous. Comparing HS soccer participation to HS football participation is closer to apples to apples, and you will find much more participation in HS football than soccer. In 2012/2013, there were 441K boys playing HS soccer. However, that's more or less because most schools don't limit football participation where they may limit soccer participation. Even that said, look at the stands during HS soccer and football games and tell me which is more popular.

 

[jekelish]

While I understand your sentiment and we probably agree on the end result, you can't compare total soccer participation against just HS football participation. That's disingenuous. Comparing HS soccer participation to HS football participation is closer to apples to apples, and you will find much more participation in HS football than soccer. In 2012/2013, there were 441K boys playing HS soccer. However, that's more or less because most schools don't limit football participation where they may limit soccer participation. Even that said, look at the stands during HS soccer and football games and tell me which is more popular.

Honestly, comparing high school soccer versus football participation is FAR from apples to apples. You could have 100 kids on a football roster. You'll almost never see a soccer roster with more than 25 kids. Obviously you're going to have more football players than soccer players, for the simple reason that there are roughly 4x as many roster spots available.

 

[texascpa]

Honestly, comparing high school soccer versus football participation is FAR from apples to apples. You could have 100 kids on a football roster. You'll almost never see a soccer roster with more than 25 kids. Obviously you're going to have more football players than soccer players, for the simple reason that there are roughly 4x as many roster spots available.

I know, i said that. I said it was closer, didn't say it was exact.

 

[billsin01]

Soccer will grow exponentially due to youth participation. Really good athletes are going that route now. I know 2 kids who are big enough and fast enough to play for Syracuse CBA but are playing soccer instead. 20 years ago that would not happen.

Well, I'm not sure I totally agree with this in the sense that I think there is a spike in youth participation in soccer after every world cup. I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure I remember reading stories about this after previouss world cups.

But I guess what is somewhat confusing is what the argument is here. The thread started with a warning to american football that soccer was coming and then there's been a ton of posts about 'outdrawing' the NBA and NHL, etc. That seems to suggest to me that people here either believe everyone is going to suddenly adopt and EPL team and become huge international fans (not happening and in no way a threat to US based professional leagues) or that the MLS is going to grow exponentially and displace baseball.

My problem with that is that there's a difference between a sport being popular and a sport being a viable professional league or displacing one of the major leagues in the US. Lacrosse is insanely popular in the northeast/mid-atlantic but there is essentially zero interest in professional lacrosse leagues. I see soccer as being in a similar sport, albeit much more viable than lacrosse. But to suggest that the MLS playing 34 games a year with 19 teams is somehow poised to displace baseball, which despite it's painfully slow pace and lack of popularity among youth, still crushes it with TV contracts, attendance and national mindshare, seems completely farcical to me. To even begin this discussion, we have to somehow find a way to lure talent from Europe to the US to play in MLS. And I don't mean some players, I mean the best players. B/c the popularity of sports here tends to be connected to the notion that it is the best league in the world (mlb/nba/nfl/nhl). That's a huge obstacle for the MLS.

But will soccer grow and perhaps significantly at youth levels with all the stuff going on with football and all the inattention to baseball? Yeah, I'd agree with that.

 

[jekelish]

To even begin this discussion, we have to somehow find a way to lure talent from Europe to the US to play in MLS. And I don't mean some players, I mean the best players. B/c the popularity of sports here tends to be connected to the notion that it is the best league in the world (mlb/nba/nfl/nhl). That's a huge obstacle for the MLS.

But will soccer grow and perhaps significantly at youth levels with all the stuff going on with football and all the inattention to baseball? Yeah, I'd agree with that.

You're absolutely right about getting the better young international players. But it's not like there aren't some already working their way to MLS. Brazil's starting keeper plays for Toronto.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Soccer is not going to touch American football for a long time, if ever. There are quite a few reasons for this but the same reason people jump on the USMNT bandwagon is similar to why some will fight tooth and nail to hold on to the NFL, NBA, and MLB... they are inherently American creations. We love America thus when we do something better than the rest of the world we support it like crazy. There is 0 foreign competition for football (lack of funds and interest in other countries), little for Basketball ($$$$), some for baseball (Japan, etc), and more for hockey. The popularity of sports in America seem to be directly tied to A) are we the best at it? B) are there any other/better leagues as options? The popularity of sports in the US directly coincides with how much competition there is for viewership of said sport ie NFL>NBA>MLB>NHL. NHL growth is limited due to many other high level leagues as well as limited area's of the world where people could even consider playing it. MLB is a slowly dying entity as it goes the way of radio broadcasts and baseball cards. People will argue that because they love the sport but their are foreign leagues that will hinder international growth of the MLB as well as a fair amount of the civilized world that couldn't care less about baseball because they have cricket. NBA essentially is the EPL as it pertains to pulling most of the worlds top players but without the far reaching potential of soccer. I have a friend that grew up in Zambia and never heard of basketball until he came to the US but played soccer all the time.

NFL are modern day gladiators which is why the viewership is so high and will remain so. NFL and NBA share the same wow factor that soccer, baseball, and hockey will never have in that most of us can run, pass, shoot, tackle, etc BUT what most can't do is be 6'4 +220+ lbs with a 40 inch vertical and run a 4.5 40. This is why NFL and NBA draw so well, these guys are monsters that can bench bress a house and out run a cheetah. Soccer, baseball, and hockey players look like us vs being giants. Anyone that has tried to replicate what players in any of those 3 sports do on a professional level know it takes an absurd amount of skill but because the players of said sports look like everyday people a lot of casual observers aren't initially drawn in or assume it's not that difficult if a normal looking human can do it.

IMHO by the end of THIS decade viewership of sports in this country will be in order football>basketball>soccer>baseball>hockey. I'm sure that will p*ss on a few baseball fans cornflakes but if you're not a fan of maybe 5 teams the support for an MLB team is regional at best. Think about how many fewer baseball team hats/gear you see walking around everyday. How many kids do you see in the back yard throwing baseballs around? Soccer is 10x more accessible now than it was 10 years ago and I think that plays a big part in the rising wave of popularity (thank Al Gore for inventing the internet!) while major networks try and cram baseball down our throats and fewer people care about it everyday. The only way Soccer will even come close to football or basketball in the US is if our domestic league gets a lot better and the NFL and NBA complete up and alienate college fans by trying to turn it into a "minor league" rather than a feeder system. Stay tuned for that if a few more college players feel like they're too big for their britches.

 

[billsin01]

You're absolutely right about getting the better young international players. But it's not like there aren't some already working their way to MLS. Brazil's starting keeper plays for Toronto.

That's cool -- more of that and soccer and the MLS have something. So if the money is there and the players start flowing in, then I'm on board with you guys. I'm not excited b/c I still don't really have any interest in soccer, but I could easily be in the minority. It's all good. I just feel like the MLS, at the very least, has a long, long way to go in this regard. And expecting everyone to randomly adopt Man City as a huge rooting interest simply isn't going to happen. That's my only point. A 10-year timeline is absurd in my opinion.

 

[Millhouse]

Soccer is not going to touch American football for a long time, if ever. There are quite a few reasons for this but the same reason people jump on the USMNT bandwagon is similar to why some will fight tooth and nail to hold on to the NFL, NBA, and MLB... they are inherently American creations. We love America thus when we do something better than the rest of the world we support it like crazy. There is 0 foreign competition for football (lack of funds and interest in other countries), little for Basketball ($$$$), some for baseball (Japan, etc), and more for hockey. The popularity of sports in America seem to be directly tied to A) are we the best at it? B) are there any other/better leagues as options? The popularity of sports in the US directly coincides with how much competition there is for viewership of said sport ie NFL>NBA>MLB>NHL. NHL growth is limited due to many other high level leagues as well as limited area's of the world where people could even consider playing it. MLB is a slowly dying entity as it goes the way of radio broadcasts and baseball cards. People will argue that because they love the sport but their are foreign leagues that will hinder international growth of the MLB as well as a fair amount of the civilized world that couldn't care less about baseball because they have cricket. NBA essentially is the EPL as it pertains to pulling most of the worlds top players but without the far reaching potential of soccer. I have a friend that grew up in Zambia and never heard of basketball until he came to the US but played soccer all the time.

NFL are modern day gladiators which is why the viewership is so high and will remain so. NFL and NBA share the same wow factor that soccer, baseball, and hockey will never have in that most of us can run, pass, shoot, tackle, etc BUT what most can't do is be 6'4 +220+ lbs with a 40 inch vertical and run a 4.5 40. This is why NFL and NBA draw so well, these guys are monsters that can bench bress a house and out run a cheetah. Soccer, baseball, and hockey players look like us vs being giants. Anyone that has tried to replicate what players in any of those 3 sports do on a professional level know it takes an absurd amount of skill but because the players of said sports look like everyday people a lot of casual observers aren't initially drawn in or assume it's not that difficult if a normal looking human can do it.

IMHO by the end of THIS decade viewership of sports in this country will be in order football>basketball>soccer>baseball>hockey. I'm sure that will p*ss on a few baseball fans cornflakes but if you're not a fan of maybe 5 teams the support for an MLB team is regional at best. Think about how many fewer baseball team hats/gear you see walking around everyday. How many kids do you see in the back yard throwing baseballs around? Soccer is 10x more accessible now than it was 10 years ago and I think that plays a big part in the rising wave of popularity (thank Al Gore for inventing the internet!) while major networks try and cram baseball down our throats and fewer people care about it everyday. The only way Soccer will even come close to football or basketball in the US is if our domestic league gets a lot better and the NFL and NBA complete up and alienate college fans by trying to turn it into a "minor league" rather than a feeder system. Stay tuned for that if a few more college players feel like they're too big for their britches.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/2/10/5390172/major-league-attendance-trends-1950-2013

i don't think you're being objective about baseball. most soccer guys aren't.

 

[NashvilleOrange]

Every time someone says that football has reached its peak, the ratings climb even higher. New records are set every single year and even the NFL preseason games that so many people want gone regularly put up 20+ ratings. The average american sports fan is counting down the days until training camp starts.

 

[Bortukal]

NBA had 21 million in 2013. MLS had 6.

How many more games does the NBA play than MLS? The average attendance on a per game basis has been well cited in this thread as giving MLS the edge over NBA.

How many single basketball games will sell more than 100,000 tickets? None.

 

[GoCuse14]

I'd be a bit worried if I were you. This wasn't some "oh, how cute a soccer game is on" moment for the american sports fan. This was a "holy cow, this is freaking great" tournament.

Add this to the concussion issue and I think there's legit reason for concern.

Some 10 year old future Bo Jackson might choose soccer with a nudge from mom and dad.

I didnt go through and read all 8 pages...but soccer is utterly boring to me. I didnt pretent to like it these last few weeks, and I will not pretend to like it 4 years from now.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

American Football definitely has a shelf life, I would believe that the sport will be just about dead in 40-50 years, they will continue to water down the rules as years go by and people will lose interest. The best athletes will look elsewhere as well

 

[ImperialOrange]

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/2/10/5390172/major-league-attendance-trends-1950-2013

i don't think you're being objective about baseball. most soccer guys aren't.

I'm 30 years old and played baseball until Jr Midget level which IIRC was 15 or 16 years old. As of 5 years ago the area I played for as well as some I played against no longer even have jr midget teams. Even when I was playing ~2000 most teams had a tough time fielding enough players for a team. As youth interest dries up, viewership will as well. I was a Red Sox fan, and still would claim them if asked but couldnt tell you much of anything about the team the last few years. The sport itself doesn't translate well to TV which is what drives $$$$$ and fan hood. The biggest baseball fan I know is my 80 y/o grandmother and my 70 y/o uncle. I work in an office full of 20, 30, and 40 somethings and you don't hear much baseball talked about nor do you ever see it on the break room tv. Football, basketball, soccer, and occassionally hockey you do.

You'll be hard pressed to find any "die hard" baseball fans under the age of 40 unless they are Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. fans that were generationally born into fan hood. Kids/young adults aren't looking for baseball on their own at this point. Again I ask, how many kids do you see in your neighborhood in the back yard with a baseball, bat and glove? How many times do you drive by a local baseball diamond and actually see people there?

I was a baseball fan far before I was a soccer guy but watching/following both sports aren't even on the same planet as far as excitement/drama go.

 

[Guinness]

That's cool -- more of that and soccer and the MLS have something. So if the money is there and the players start flowing in, then I'm on board with you guys. I'm not excited b/c I still don't really have any interest in soccer, but I could easily be in the minority. It's all good. I just feel like the MLS, at the very least, has a long, long way to go in this regard. And expecting everyone to randomly adopt Man City as a huge rooting interest simply isn't going to happen. That's my only point. A 10-year timeline is absurd in my opinion.

The problem the MLS has is that for right or wrong it is perceived as the minor leagues. Where as the NFL, NBA and MLB all get the top players in the world. MLS gives some fans a AAA baseball feel.