Did Girard and Buddy just become more

[IthacaMatt]

+/- 3 points in a game can mean a lot. See: last year’s PF vs. PA stats.

But it's only an average difference of 0.6 points per game.

Significantly less than a typical home court advantage.

 

[moqui]

Doesn't matter, we'll still lead the nation in (insert 3-pt distance and subtract 4 inches) jumpers.

a basketball court's version of the taint

 

[RealMcNeil]

But it's only an average difference of 0.6 points per game.

Significantly less than a typical home court advantage.

On a per game basis, you won’t see anyone missing a 0.6 point shot. Using your 1 in 5 games logic, you narrow the margin substantively on occasion.

 

[CousCuse]

Obi Wan Boeheim knew the change was coming and has made the calculations and that's why he and his staff have been proactive and changed their recruiting focus. Pure genius.

 

[sutomcat]

Obi Wan Boeheim knew the change was coming and has made the calculations and that's why he and his staff have been proactive and changed their recruiting focus. Pure genius.

I went to a web site (Shot Chart - The Stepien) and got shot charts for Elijah and Buddy for last season, to see what kind of impact imposing the new 3 point line might have on them.

The old 3 point circle and the NBA 3 point circle appear on the charts. The old college 3 point circle was 20 feet 9 inches from the basket. The new college 3 point circle will be 22 feet 1.75 inches out and like the old circle will be the same distance everywhere. The NBA 3 point line is 23.75 feet out most of the way but the distance reduces to 22 feet on the sides of the basket. The new college 3 point line is now actually going to be slightly further than the NBA 3 point line directly to the left and right of the basket, then will move almost a foot inside as it approaches the top of the key from the left and right.

Buddy attempted 139 threes last season. Of that total, 102 were NBA 3s (73.4%).

His shooting percentage from the NBA 3 point line was 36.3%. He took 37 shots inside the NBA 3 point line but outside the college 3 point line and made 10 (27%). Yes, he actually shot significantly better from the NBA 3 point circle than he did for shots outside the old college 3 point circle and inside the NBA circle. Some of those 37 shots will not be 3 point shots next season. Looking at his chart, I would guess around 9 of his 3 attempts become 2 attempts. If he changes nothing with shot selection and shooting percentage, based I what I see, he would lose a single point for the season.

Elijah attempted 237 3s last year. Of that total, 182 were NBA 3s (76.7%).

His shooting percentage from the NBA 3 point line was 36.3%. He took 55 shots inside the NBA 3 point line but outside the college 3 point line and made 22 (40%). Some of those 55 shots will not be 3 point shots next season. It is possible a few of the NBA 3s Elijah took from the corners last season that were 3s will no longer be 3s either. Looking at his chart, I would guess around 25 3 attempts become 2 attempts. If he changes nothing with shot selection and shooting percentage, he will lose a point for about 36% of those attempts, or about 9 points for the season.

I think a reason both players took relatively few shots just outside the old college 3 point circle is a lack of refinement in their shooting skills. Both take a while to get their outside shot off. Neither has shown much ability to date to shoot off the dribble or catch and immediately release. Those skill tend to come later in college careers, if they come at all.

I would think the rule change will have a minimal impact for both players. The bigger issue for both, in my mind anyway, is whether a true point guard will emerge that is capable of getting them quality open shots on a consistent basis. Neither has shown the ability to date to be able to create their own shot (at least from the outside), so they are dependent on getting help from teammates to get good looks. Towards that end, it would be great if we develop a big than is good at setting screens as well. Paschal and Bourama were not good at this. Marek wasn't good either. We had a lot more PFs called trying to set screens than plays were a screen set up an open shot successfully. That should never happen.

 

[orange79]

Very cool. Thanks, TC.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I went to a web site (Shot Chart - The Stepien) and got shot charts for Elijah and Buddy for last season, to see what kind of impact imposing the new 3 point line might have on them.

The old 3 point circle and the NBA 3 point circle appear on the charts. The old college 3 point circle was 20 feet 9 inches from the basket. The new college 3 point circle will be 22 feet 1.75 inches out and like the old circle will be the same distance everywhere. The NBA 3 point line is 23.75 feet out most of the way but the distance reduces to 22 feet on the sides of the basket. The new college 3 point line is now actually going to be slightly further than the NBA 3 point line directly to the left and right of the basket, then will move almost a foot inside as it approaches the top of the key from the left and right.

Buddy attempted 139 threes last season. Of that total, 102 were NBA 3s (73.4%).

His shooting percentage from the NBA 3 point line was 36.3%. He took 37 shots inside the NBA 3 point line but outside the college 3 point line and made 10 (27%). Yes, he actually shot significantly better from the NBA 3 point circle than he did for shots outside the old college 3 point circle and inside the NBA circle. Some of those 37 shots will not be 3 point shots next season. Looking at his chart, I would guess around 9 of his 3 attempts become 2 attempts. If he changes nothing with shot selection and shooting percentage, based I what I see, he would lose a single point for the season.

Elijah attempted 237 3s last year. Of that total, 182 were NBA 3s (76.7%).

His shooting percentage from the NBA 3 point line was 36.3%. He took 55 shots inside the NBA 3 point line but outside the college 3 point line and made 22 (40%). Some of those 55 shots will not be 3 point shots next season. It is possible a few of the NBA 3s Elijah took from the corners last season that were 3s will no longer be 3s either. Looking at his chart, I would guess around 25 3 attempts become 2 attempts. If he changes nothing with shot selection and shooting percentage, he will lose a point for about 36% of those attempts, or about 9 points for the season.

I think a reason both players took relatively few shots just outside the old college 3 point circle is a lack of refinement in their shooting skills. Both take a while to get their outside shot off. Neither has shown much ability to date to shoot off the dribble or catch and immediately release. Those skill tend to come later in college careers, if they come at all.

I would think the rule change will have a minimal impact for both players. The bigger issue for both, in my mind anyway, is whether a true point guard will emerge that is capable of getting them quality open shots on a consistent basis. Neither has shown the ability to date to be able to create their own shot (at least from the outside), so they are dependent on getting help from teammates to get good looks. Towards that end, it would be great if we develop a big than is good at setting screens as well. Paschal and Bourama were not good at this. Marek wasn't good either. We had a lot more PFs called trying to set screens than plays were a screen set up an open shot successfully. That should never happen.

View attachment 165147View attachment 165157

Terrific post! Interesting stuff in those shot charts.

I see that if Buddy can get past his man when he tries to drive, he has a great chance of making the shot. But if he tries to drive the lane but can't get past his defender, he usually misses.

Eli is certainly our volume shooter. I'm surprised to see him miss so many from the top of the key. He does much better from the wings and the corners.

 

[sutomcat]

Terrific post! Interesting stuff in those shot charts.

I see that if Buddy can get past his man when he tries to drive, he has a great chance of making the shot. But if he tries to drive the lane but can't get past his defender, he usually misses.

Eli is certainly our volume shooter. I'm surprised to see him miss so many from the top of the key. He does much better from the wings and the corners.

Regarding volume shooting, Buddy actually shot more 3 point shots per minute than Elijah.

In overall games, Elijah took 236 3s in 1108 minutes or one every 4.69 minutes. Buddy took 133 3s in 544 minutes. one every 4.09 minutes.

In conference games, which I think is a better indicator where things are heading next season, Elijah took 126 3s in 570 minutes (4.53/minute). Buddy took 81 3s in 294 minutes (3.63/minute).

It is one of the reasons why Buddy is destined to be a major scorer for this program. To do that, you need to be able to shoot and get your shot off.

I expect Elijah and Buddy will both average over 15 ppg next year.

2018-2019 Men's Basketball Cumulative Statistics - Syracuse University Athletics

 

[Winola]

I went to a web site (Shot Chart - The Stepien) and got shot charts for Elijah and Buddy for last season, to see what kind of impact imposing the new 3 point line might have on them.

The old 3 point circle and the NBA 3 point circle appear on the charts. The old college 3 point circle was 20 feet 9 inches from the basket. The new college 3 point circle will be 22 feet 1.75 inches out and like the old circle will be the same distance everywhere. The NBA 3 point line is 23.75 feet out most of the way but the distance reduces to 22 feet on the sides of the basket. The new college 3 point line is now actually going to be slightly further than the NBA 3 point line directly to the left and right of the basket, then will move almost a foot inside as it approaches the top of the key from the left and right.

Buddy attempted 139 threes last season. Of that total, 102 were NBA 3s (73.4%).

His shooting percentage from the NBA 3 point line was 36.3%. He took 37 shots inside the NBA 3 point line but outside the college 3 point line and made 10 (27%). Yes, he actually shot significantly better from the NBA 3 point circle than he did for shots outside the old college 3 point circle and inside the NBA circle. Some of those 37 shots will not be 3 point shots next season. Looking at his chart, I would guess around 9 of his 3 attempts become 2 attempts. If he changes nothing with shot selection and shooting percentage, based I what I see, he would lose a single point for the season.

Elijah attempted 237 3s last year. Of that total, 182 were NBA 3s (76.7%).

His shooting percentage from the NBA 3 point line was 36.3%. He took 55 shots inside the NBA 3 point line but outside the college 3 point line and made 22 (40%). Some of those 55 shots will not be 3 point shots next season. It is possible a few of the NBA 3s Elijah took from the corners last season that were 3s will no longer be 3s either. Looking at his chart, I would guess around 25 3 attempts become 2 attempts. If he changes nothing with shot selection and shooting percentage, he will lose a point for about 36% of those attempts, or about 9 points for the season.

I think a reason both players took relatively few shots just outside the old college 3 point circle is a lack of refinement in their shooting skills. Both take a while to get their outside shot off. Neither has shown much ability to date to shoot off the dribble or catch and immediately release. Those skill tend to come later in college careers, if they come at all.

I would think the rule change will have a minimal impact for both players. The bigger issue for both, in my mind anyway, is whether a true point guard will emerge that is capable of getting them quality open shots on a consistent basis. Neither has shown the ability to date to be able to create their own shot (at least from the outside), so they are dependent on getting help from teammates to get good looks. Towards that end, it would be great if we develop a big than is good at setting screens as well. Paschal and Bourama were not good at this. Marek wasn't good either. We had a lot more PFs called trying to set screens than plays were a screen set up an open shot successfully. That should never happen.

View attachment 165147View attachment 165157

Looks like they missed the shot Hughes made from the backcourt at Duke.

 

[orange79]

Looks like they missed the shot Hughes made from the backcourt at Duke.

Upper right corner. Tomcat posted Buddy's chart.

 

[Chip]

I believe it's only 9 inches further out. 19-9 vs 20-6. I don't think it's a big deal. Players shoot regularly from 25 feet nowadays.

Or 30 feet, while essentially being molested, if you're UVA at the Dome.

I'd like to think next year's opener will be slightly different.

 

[EastCoast2]

Or 30 feet, while essentially being molested, if you're UVA at the Dome.

I'd like to think next year's opener will be slightly different.

Yeah, we were basically pulling their shorts down and checking their tonsils and UVA was still draining nothing but net from about 30 feet.

 

[garnermike]

It's 16.75-inch difference. It will bring down trey shooting efficiency throughout CBB. One school of thought says that defenses will pack thing in more (allowing more shots from the longer distance). The other school of thought says it will open the floor up as defensive players will want to contest shots from further out. We'll have to wait and see which scenario pans out.
What's comforting for SU is having proven effective long-distance shooters like Hughes and Buddy, and a likely effective trey shooter (JGIII). Having them will either make for consistent 3-pt scoring or make the key more attackable.

 

[CousCuse]

It's 16.75-inch difference. It will bring down trey shooting efficiency throughout CBB. One school of thought says that defenses will pack thing in more (allowing more shots from the longer distance). The other school of thought says it will open the floor up as defensive players will want to contest shots from further out. We'll have to wait and see which scenario pans out.
What's comforting for SU is having proven effective long-distance shooters like Hughes and Buddy, and a likely effective trey shooter (JGIII). Having them will either make for consistent 3-pt scoring or make the key more attackable.

That's what I was alluding to in my previous post. If you have the shooters from distance, they are going to have to come out to challenge shots. Past SU teams have never been built with the kind of outside shooting ability that this current iteration is capable of. These percentages seem small, however the difference between winning and losing is very small in the current highly competitive college basketball game. So, what I'm saying is that appears that the coaching staff has made a clear strategic change in their approach.

 

[SBU72]

In reference to the line change, people here seem to think it was done to make the shot more difficult which in reality not the case. It was done to try and open up the area inside the arc. And I think it won't effect a zone as much as m2m. In m2m, defenders will tend to follow their man, moving out that extra foot. Zone defense starts inside the arc and reacts out.

As for the statistical analysis for Buddy, I usually don't like to cherry pick data but here I think it's valid, I think analysis of conference stats forward is more representative.

 

[HOFCeluck]

It is indeed a substantial change and it does indeed insure that an already effective and highly extended zone will be further immunized from the fluke can't miss from outside games that have occasionally done us in...Think Vermont.

I think I’m going to make it my personal mission to debunk the myth that we lost to Vermont because of outstanding shooting from 3.

 

[JDubbin]

Every time I read the title of this thread...

 

[DinoFan15]

I don't think it is so much that they will be more effective as it is that their effectiveness won't be impacted when it will for a lot of other guys.

 

[sutomcat]

Upper right corner. Tomcat posted Buddy's chart.

View attachment 165163

Indeed. That is why Elijah’s shot chart looks stretched out and weird compared to Buddy’s.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

I think I’m going to make it my personal mission to debunk the myth that we lost to Vermont because of outstanding shooting from 3.

I thought we should have pressed all game, especially with the dead spots in the floor.

 

[DinoFan15]

Honestly I see the moving back of the line as an overall good thing. Gonna make our zone more effective because 3’s are gonna be harder to shoot.

 

[hoopsupstate]

Honestly I see the moving back of the line as an overall good thing. Gonna make our zone more effective because 3’s are gonna be harder to shoot.

I’m not worried about the three. I’m not sure how our wings can cover out to 23 feet and recover underneath and still rebound.

 

[HOFCeluck]

I thought we should have pressed all game, especially with the dead spots in the floor.

Agree 100 percent.

 

[OrangeDW]

I think I’m going to make it my personal mission to debunk the myth that we lost to Vermont because of outstanding shooting from 3.

Agreed.

I remember one ridiculously deep three by Sorrentine, the kid with the weird name that averaged 5 points per game made almost every shot he took(more mid range I think), McNamara had a horrible shooting game, Warrick had 10(!!) turnovers, Roberts got called for a technical for hanging on the rim on a fast break dunk, the pace of the game was really slow, and they had the home crowd advantage.(and supposedly the floor was crappy quality)

 

[HOFCeluck]

Agreed.

I remember one ridiculously deep three by Sorrentine, the kid with the weird name that averaged 5 points per game made almost every shot he took(more mid range I think), McNamara had a horrible shooting game, Warrick had 10(!!) turnovers, Roberts got called for a technical for hanging on the rim on a fast break dunk, the pace of the game was really slow, and they had the home crowd advantage.(and supposedly the floor was crappy quality)

Yeah. Sorrentine shot less than 33 percent for three and we let a 6-4 200 lb PF go off on 8-9 shooting.