did lunardi really say 4-2 gives us a shot??

[upperdeck]

Nope...NIT changed several years ago. A .500% power team isn't an automatic anymore. Probably need about 19 wins.

interesting.. I missed that.. but it also means they just take the best 32 after all the league winners are in.

if we dont get to 19 they we finished poorly and it wont matter.

 

[cusefan88]

To make the dance they would have to win every game left plus at least 2 in the ACCT

 

[Cuse181]

Neat page. Added some ACC tourney wins at the end and still no dice. Clearly a very uphill climb

Seems funky, changed to a win over Virginia (home) and Bryant, plus winning out, plus beating UNC and Pittsburgh in the ACCt before losing to Clemson and still 4 spots out.

25-9 with 4 quad 1 wins isn’t good enough for the simulator?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

If we went 3-2 in our next 5, and followed that up with 2-1 in the ACCT, wouldn't that put us on the bubble? 21-13 (12-8) isn't going to be considered? Just looking at the field even with upsets in the conference tournies, IMO SU should be at worst next 4 out. Without upsets we are even closer to sneaking in.

 

[Orangezoo]

If we went 3-2 in our next 5, and followed that up with 2-1 in the ACCT, wouldn't that put us on the bubble? 21-13 (12-8) isn't going to be considered? Just looking at the field even with upsets in the conference tournies, IMO SU should be at worst next 4 out. Without upsets we are even closer to sneaking in.

Gotta look at the q1/q2 wins. That would put us still behind anyone in the last four in and first four out as of right now with those teams ahead of us having more opportunities as well.

 

[Jzsshuttles]

I invite everyone to check out our full schedule on espn. Since the start of December this team has won a bunch of games. Every loss was close besides va tech. It’s unfortunate We can’t erase November but this team has been playing tournament ball for 2 months now. Hope the committee takes into consideration how young this team is and the progressions it’s made as the seasons gone on. We’ll see.

 

[Finwad32]

The reality is that nobody really knows because there’s a lot of variables over the next couple of weeks.

But we do know this.

We need to win a lot more than we lose. Enjoy the next game, and the one after that. Then see what happens. Could be good.

 

[SU94]

Seems funky, changed to a win over Virginia (home) and Bryant, plus winning out, plus beating UNC and Pittsburgh in the ACCt before losing to Clemson and still 4 spots out.

25-9 with 4 quad 1 wins isn’t good enough for the simulator?

This year's non-conference schedule let us down. That ... and we lost way too many of those games (4).
In the past, JAB and crew do a nice job with our schedule to be certain that it would pop on the RPI rankings. Now with the newer NET, we may have to reconsider how to better build/engineer the schedule.

I also think the B12 has thrown the whole CBB landscape out of whack in 2022-23. It's a strong league(!). Maybe even historically good (TBD). But I think the B12's "dominance" this year had somehow devalued each of the other 4-5 power conferences, with perhaps the exception of the SEC, which is not quite as good as they'd hoped (but still quite strong).

Bottom line, if he is back, I think JAB has to look at building a schedule that is significantly more efficient within the constructs of the NET rankings. And we have to hit our stride a bit earlier in the season (aka win our OOC games).

 

[jncuse]

Lunardi has the following teams as last 4 in.

Clemson ( 7-4 vs q1/q2, 2 q1 wins)
UNC (6-10 vs q1/q2, 0 q1 wins)
Miss St(5-8, 3 q1 wins)
New Mexico(5-3, 3 q1 wins)

And then First four out:

Oregon (8-9, 3 q1 wins)
UK ( 7-8, 1 q1 win)
USC (7-6, 3 q1 win)
Wisconsin (9-10, 5 q1 win)

Now we are 2-8 with 0 q1 wins. We are a long ways back from this and the best we can do before the acct is 7-8 with 1 q1 win before the acct. Those other teams have opportunities as well. We don't have a q4 loss which is good but outside of that we are simply in a win out or hope these 8 crash hard..

UNC is a good comparison to show how far behind we are in this race... as they are the second last team in per the matrix - they also, like us, lack a Q1 win which is really hurting them.

That being said
As you pointed out UNC is 6-10 vs 2-8 in q1/q2
Also 0 bad losses vs 2 bad losses.

Just goes to show you far behind we are in the race.
I see no way that a 3-2 record, which includes a Q4 win vs Georgia Tech moving us close to that level.

 

[jncuse]

Nope...NIT changed several years ago. A .500% power team isn't an automatic anymore. Probably need about 19 wins.

It also depends on how strong your power conference is. A 16 win team in the B12 this year probably gets in the NIT no problem.

But the ACC is not strong this year relative to the other P5, so your 19 win target seems about right but maybe not even a lock -- could depend on the auto bids they give to small conference teams that won their regular season but did not win the post season tourney.

 

[jncuse]

Joe says everyone has a shot, personally I look at team rankings and they say (including tourney)

22 wins = 21% chance
23 wins = 70% chance
24 wins = 100% chance (because they assume that’s ACCT win I believe)

I do have 22 as the we can get serious target as well -- once we get there that is when all the moving parts over the next few weeks can change %'s - I would have us a bit higher than 21% at 22 wins as of now, but really that is all speculation.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Gotta look at the q1/q2 wins. That would put us still behind anyone in the last four in and first four out as of right now with those teams ahead of us having more opportunities as well.

Yep. And the biggest obstacle is that there are 15-20 teams fighting for those last four spots. A so-so record isn't going to put any of those other teams away. Win out against the tougher part of SU's schedule will make them stand-out much much more.

 

[jncuse]

its simple

20 wins total to even qualify for the NIT
23 for the NCAA's

These include the ACC Tournament

While its never quite "simple" right around the borders, but those numbers seem like the right ones for locks as of now.

 

[jncuse]

Need to be on the other side from UVA and they get knocked out

2 ways to look at this.

1) We need a marquee win to improve our at large chances. Beating Virginia in the ACC tournament is the best possible thing we can do to really elevate our resume. For example if our ACC is beating BC, UVA, losing to Clemson (only 2 wins)... its much better than beating BC, NC St, Clemson then losing to Duke even though its 3 wins.

2) Avoiding UVA until the final is probably the best chance to win the ACC tournament -- which is still probably a higher % path to a tourney bid at this point than an at large.

 

[Orangezoo]

2 ways to look at this.

1) We need a marquee win to improve our at large chances. Beating Virginia in the ACC tournament is the best possible thing we can do to really elevate our resume. For example if our ACC is beating BC, UVA, losing to Clemson (only 2 wins)... its much better than beating BC, NC St, Clemson then losing to Duke even though its 3 wins.

2) Avoiding UVA until the final is probably the best chance to win the ACC tournament -- which is still probably a higher % path to a tourney bid at this point than an at large.

Barring we are at 21 wins and are playing UVA, it in some ways sets up a little like 20-21 when we lost on the buzzer beater. The exception being this time no matter how we play we have to beat them to get in where then our numbers were stronger and that performance solidly locked us in.

Also fair or not if we beat Duke, I could see Clemson setting up as a bracket buster kind of game where loser is ACCT title or bust.

 

[jncuse]

Gotta look at the q1/q2 wins. That would put us still behind anyone in the last four in and first four out as of right now with those teams ahead of us having more opportunities as well.

That's the thing - as of right now we only have 1 Q1 regular season game remaining on our schedule (At Pitt). So we win that and we have 1 Q1 win going into the ACC. Its rare to see a P5 team get an at large with less than 3.

B10, SEC, B12 teams - almost every road games in those conferences are a Q1. They are going to more Q1 chances down the stretch than we are. None of there losses are worse than Q2 typically. its hard to make up ground on them unless you string victories,

 

[Sherman20]

Joe says everyone has a shot, personally I look at team rankings and they say (including tourney)

22 wins = 21% chance
23 wins = 70% chance
24 wins = 100% chance (because they assume that’s ACCT win I believe)

Total number of wins isn’t much of a guide. It matters what those wins are/who we beat. But it’s clear we need to go like 4-1 and beat Pitt. And then win a q1 game or two in the ACC tourney. If we beat Clemson and they finish the season strongly, that could become a Q1 win.

 

[TexanMark]

If we went 3-2 in our next 5, and followed that up with 2-1 in the ACCT, wouldn't that put us on the bubble? 21-13 (12-8) isn't going to be considered? Just looking at the field even with upsets in the conference tournies, IMO SU should be at worst next 4 out. Without upsets we are even closer to sneaking in.

Maybe...Cuse really needs some help from other bubble teams fading.

 

[hoopsupstate]

Just keep winning and then whatever happens, happens. From where we were and to get on the bubble would be great. Keep taking one game at a time.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Gotta look at the q1/q2 wins. That would put us still behind anyone in the last four in and first four out as of right now with those teams ahead of us having more opportunities as well.

I am looking at the field. I have a hard time finding 75 teams ahead of a 21 W SU.

 

[Orangezoo]

I am looking at the field. I have a hard time finding 75 teams ahead of a 21 W SU.

In terms of q1/q2 record?? Or eye test?

We are playing well and much better than the first half of the season. Using the committees messaging around total body of work.. you have to look at the numbers around quality wins. We fall massively short there right now and we need to be at 22 wins to be feeling even somewhat confident here. We are playing catch up as I outlined using Lunardis last four in/next four out and those teams like us will still have games to boost their resume.

 

[TexanMark]

Are the last 10 games going to have weight this year? That could help Cuse.

 

[Orangezoo]

Are the last 10 games going to have weight this year? That could help Cuse.

My understanding is that is no longer a thing. Those games matter if you get some key wins ( or bad losses) but it's now total body of work.

 

[jncuse]

Total number of wins isn’t much of a guide. It matters what those wins are/who we beat. But it’s clear we need to go like 4-1 and beat Pitt. And then win a q1 game or two in the ACC tourney. If we beat Clemson and they finish the season strongly, that could become a Q1 win.

Yes and no - using total wins at this point is largely a simplified view which assumes we get additional Q1 and Q2 goodies as we expand our wins.

The problem with your highlighting our Q1 win opportunities to close is... "is that it"? The best we can do by the end of regular year if things breaks right is to have just 2 Q1 wins -- at Pitt and at Clemson. One team which may never be in the tournament in Clemson.

Using the its "who we beat" instead of total wins doesn't really help our case, because the who we beat analytics are not going to be good if we close at 3-2.

 

[Cuse181]

Total number of wins isn’t much of a guide. It matters what those wins are/who we beat. But it’s clear we need to go like 4-1 and beat Pitt. And then win a q1 game or two in the ACC tourney. If we beat Clemson and they finish the season strongly, that could become a Q1 win.

I believe this factors in partial win values. Like 21 wins with a ACCT loss and 21 wins with a loss in reg season and then another ACCT win are weighted together to get a total 21 win % to get a bid. At least, that’s how it should work