Digging into some resumes

[Orangemen]

Teams I don't think we can pass:
Gonzaga
Duke
Indiana
Ville
Miami
Kansas
Georgetown
Winner of OSU-MSU

Teams I think we can pass (with a win tonight)
Loser of MSU- OSU
Florida
New Mexico (if we haven't already)

Teams I think we've already passed
Michigan

So right now, I think we are the last 3 seed. Win tonight, and I think we can get as high as the top 3 seed.

If we lose tonight, we need to be concerned with Wisconsin. If they win the B1G tournament they could. and probably would, pass us and become the last 3, bumping us down to a number 4.

I had thought we had a shot at a 2, but it just doesn't look like it. Maybe if we win tonight, and OSU and MSU both lose, we could sneak into the last 2, but I'm guessing we don't.

So to me it looks like this:
Win tonight- We are the top 3 seed
Lose tonight (and Wisky loses tomorrow)- We are the last 3 seed
Lose tonight (and Wisky wins tomorrow)- We are the top 4 seed

 

[rstone7727]

I'm fine with a 4/5 seed based on our teams inconsistency. Don't want to be over seeded and get bounced if no one shows up at the 1st game. I think seedings are over rated anyhow, match ups are the key.

 

[jncuse]

good analysis of top 8, and I dont disaree we can be compared to all of the teams outside.

From about 9-14, it can go many ways based on.
- Who wins and loses today and tomorrow
- Commitee bias / prerefence. Your split is fair, but margins could be so close, that one cant make a call on wat committee will do either way.

IMO, we could be a 3 if we lose if correct things occur (and committee prefences are in our favour ) or a 4 even if we win. Likely scenario would seem to be a 3 if we win or 4 if we lose, but I dont think either are locks.

Florida is beating nobody this week, so it could be losin ground.
New Mexico would get a big win at UNLV tonite. But mystery about treatment of MWC wins abounds.
Committee may have a boner for the B10 -- it may not.
Must also consider that Kansas St can beat Kansas, and we are close to tied currently.

 

[anomander]

You also have to consider that the committee will factor in the losses played without Southerland. This is a part of the criteria when seeding. JS has shown this week just how valuable he is to our team. His absence is reflected better in our BPI ranking, which is 7. I don't think a 2 seed is completely out of the question because of this. Road win at Louisville, along with neutral court wins vs Pitt, G'town, and Louisville again would go a long long way.

 

[bpo57]

You also have to consider that the committee will factor in the losses played without Southerland. This is a part of the criteria when seeding. JS has shown this week just how valuable he is to our team. His absence is reflected better in our BPI ranking, which is 7. I don't think a 2 seed is completely out of the question because of this. Road win at Louisville, along with neutral court wins vs Pitt, G'town, and Louisville again would go a long long way.

Other teams have played without starters too and, as has been pointed out by others, we lost several games with JS in the lineup too.

 

[bpo57]

good analysis of top 8, and I dont disaree we can be compared to all of the teams outside.

From about 9-14, it can go many ways based on.
- Who wins and loses today and tomorrow
- Commitee bias / prerefence. Your split is fair, but margins could be so close, that one cant make a call on wat committee will do either way.

IMO, we could be a 3 if we lose if correct things occur (and committee prefences are in our favour ) or a 4 even if we win. Likely scenario would seem to be a 3 if we win or 4 if we lose, but I dont think either are locks.

Florida is beating nobody this week, so it could be losin ground.
New Mexico would get a big win at UNLV tonite. But mystery about treatment of MWC wins abounds.
Committee may have a boner for the B10 -- it may not.
Must also consider that Kansas St can beat Kansas, and we are close to tied currently.

UF is a pretty good bet for a 2 seed if they win tomorrow. Worst case would be a 3.

Will be interesting to see how UNM is treated. Tough one. I don't get the high rpi.

Committee likely to have viagra-fueled boner for B1G

 

[ORRange]

Just seems to me that we need K.St. and Wisc to lose to keep them off the 3 line. It looks right now that K.St., Wisc. are on the 4 line and will knock us to a 4 line with a win, but when we win it won't matter.

 

[Chris02M]

if we beat louisville we will stay ahead of those 2 teams. wisconsin is the team i am worried about more than kansas state .hopefully if we did get slid to a 4 the committee would do us a solid and put us on friday or close to home

 

[Chris02M]

UF is a pretty good bet for a 2 seed if they win tomorrow. Worst case would be a 3.

Will be interesting to see how UNM is treated. Tough one. I don't get the high rpi.

Committee likely to have viagra-fueled boner for B1G

with how bad sec is this yr i dont see florida getting a 2

 

[jncuse]

UF is a pretty good bet for a 2 seed if they win tomorrow. Worst case would be a 3.

Will be interesting to see how UNM is treated. Tough one. I don't get the high rpi.

Committee likely to have viagra-fueled boner for B1G

Compare Florida, Kansas St and Syracuse (assume all win)

Florida -25-6 overall, 4-3 (or 5-3) vs top 50, 15-6 vs top 100
Kansas St - 27-6 overall, 7-6 vs top 50, 9-6 vs top 100
Syracuse - 27-8 overall, 7-7 vs top 50, 13-8 vs top 100.

Florida lacks in quality victories. One advantage they have is OOC they played everybody -- W Wisconsin, W Marquette, W Middle Tennessee St, L at Kasnas St, L at Arizaona. Could get rewarded for merely playin those OOC road games.

Kansas St beat Florida, and no sub 50 losses.

Syracuse has the greatest quality of victories amongst teams, because it is road/neutral.

My point is I am not locking anyting in 3 0r 4 line, because committee has interpreted such data differently in the past.


Even if New Mexico loses tonite, its a mystery if Syracuse is deemed better. UNM would be 9-4 vs top 50, and an amazin 19-6 vs top 100. Does committee discount top 50 wins based on name on opponents jersey? And to wat extent?

 

[bpo57]

with how bad sec is this yr i dont see florida getting a 2

Fair point. I am not enamored with them but 7 rpi won't hurt.

 

[bpo57]

Compare Florida, Kansas St and Syracuse (assume all win)

Florida -25-6 overall, 4-3 (or 5-3) vs top 50, 15-6 vs top 100
Kansas St - 27-6 overall, 7-6 vs top 50, 9-6 vs top 100
Syracuse - 27-8 overall, 7-7 vs top 50, 13-8 vs top 100.

Florida lacks in quality victories. One advantage they have is OOC they played everybody -- W Wisconsin, W Marquette, W Middle Tennessee St, L at Kasnas St, L at Arizaona. Could get rewarded for merely playin those OOC road games.

Kansas St beat Florida, and no sub 50 losses.

Syracuse has the greatest quality of victories amongst teams, because it is road/neutral.

My point is I am not locking anyting in 3 0r 4 line, because committee has interpreted such data differently in the past.

You touched on a very key point. OOC schedule. Committee has rewarded people for playing tough games and punished those for vice versa. It could hurt us.

 

[PoppyHart]

If a team wins both its regular season and its conference tourney, I think that's highly regarded. UNM, UF, SLU all could fit this bill.

 

[bpo57]

If a team wins both its regular season and its conference tourney, I think that's highly regarded. UNM, UF, SLU all could fit this bill.

No doubt. I would not have any interest in playing STL.

 

[Nicknack]

We lose tonight... 4 seed
We win tonight... 3 seed

Although crazier things have happened, I see no way that we could still be on the 5 seed line after our run in the BE so far (beating Pitt and G'Clown). At the same time, I also don't see us being rewarded all the way to a 2 with a win tonight. Thinking about it objectively, we shouldn't get a 2 seed just for running the BE tourney based on where we started prior to Wednesday. We get a 2 seed with a victory, I'll gladly take it but I liken it to taking a flop on D and the other team being called for offensive charging. I cheer and clap but shake my head at the same time. No way that should happen based on what else is going on but like I said, I'd love to see it, but I just can't imagine that scenario.

 

[anomander]

We lose tonight... 4 seed
We win tonight... 3 seed

Although crazier things have happened, I see no way that we could still be on the 5 seed line after our run in the BE so far (beating Pitt and G'Clown). At the same time, I also don't see us being rewarded all the way to a 2 with a win tonight. Thinking about it objectively, we shouldn't get a 2 seed just for running the BE tourney based on where we started prior to Wednesday. We get a 2 seed with a victory, I'll gladly take it but I liken it to taking a flop on D and the other team being called for offensive charging. I cheer and clap but shake my head at the same time. No way that should happen based on what else is going on but like I said, I'd love to see it, but I just can't imagine that scenario.

The year we won it with Gmac we went from outside the bubble to a 5 seed

 

[Nicknack]

The year we won it with Gmac we went from outside the bubble to a 5 seed

Apples to Oranges

We are talking about being maybe a 9 or 10 seed (on the bubble) to moving up to a 5 seed - understandable with the run we had. They don't put major conference teams as 14/15/16 seeds so this isn't nearly the same. It's not like we went from a 16 to a 5. The other major difference is who is ahead of us right now and what they are doing in their tourney's. Going from a 5 to a 2 is MUCH more difficult and just not the same.

 

[anomander]

Apples to Oranges

We are talking about being maybe a 9 or 10 seed (on the bubble) to moving up to a 5 seed - understandable with the run we had. They don't put major conference teams as 14/15/16 seeds so this isn't nearly the same. It's not like we went from a 16 to a 5. The other major difference is who is ahead of us right now and what they are doing in their tourney's. Going from a 5 to a 2 is MUCH more difficult and just not the same.

9 or 10 seed on the bubble? the bubble is 11 and 12 seeds so 12 to 5 is a huge jump. plus this years field is the weakest ever

 

[kirbivore]

The year we won it with Gmac we went from outside the bubble to a 5 seed

and the committee screwed that one up so bad, along with under seeding Texas A&M at 12, that Vegas had the Aggies favored in that game. A top 5 seed means top 20 overall. Did anyone really think that 2006 SU team was top 20?

 

[kirbivore]

We lose tonight... 4 seed
We win tonight... 3 seed

I know different year and different committee but the 2009 team lost the BET final and still got a 3 seed.

 

[bpo57]

9 or 10 seed on the bubble? the bubble is 11 and 12 seeds so 12 to 5 is a huge jump. plus this years field is the weakest ever

But his point still stands. It's a lot easier to go from 9 to 5 than 5 to 2. I've been saying all week that you need cooperation from others to climb toward the top. Unfortunately just about everybody ranked (national polls, rpi, etc.) ahead of us last Sunday played well this week.