Dion Maybe Lottery Pick--Chad Ford

EastCoast2

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Forgot about him. Good point... Lotta talk about the kids that panned out, not so much for a guy like Orton. However, if you are a recruit, Cal can show that he took a kid like Orton, who wouldn't have gotten drafted and turned him into a first rounder, despite the fact he wasn't worth it. That should only heighten his leverage with perspective players.
IIRC Orton was a big recruit. He was a 95 or so on ESPN, very good rating. It's not like Cal turned him into a first rounder. The kid played 5 mpg for crying out loud
 

jr4750

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IIRC Orton was a big recruit. He was a 95 or so on ESPN, very good rating. It's not like Cal turned him into a first rounder. The kid played 5 mpg for crying out loud
my mistake, didn't realize he was that big of a recruit, cause he never played... I guess Cal didn't really doing anything for that kid! :)
 

EastCoast2

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my mistake, didn't realize he was that big of a recruit, cause he never played... I guess Cal didn't really doing anything for that kid! :)
I think he was the #4 center in that high school class. Cousins was #1, and they had Patterson there, so there was very little PT for him. Just goes to show you Orton could have gone to Colgate and been drafted.
 

Knicks411

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Once you win, unless you're Florida, you leave.
Right, but then it's probably less a Cal thing and more of just a college hoops thing. Guys leave early all the time, especially coming off success, so I don't think we should assume right away Cal forced him out. (though you certainly can't dismiss it)

Devil's advocate, however:
1.) Unlike college, almost all of Dion's opponents in the NBA will be his equals in size, strength, and quickness.
2.) Unlike college, NBA guards need a reliable three-point shot to get to the rim.
Agree with the first more than the second. Obviously this is on the high end, but Dwayne Wade is a horrible 3 point shooter and he does ok getting to the rim. Tony Parker one year was like top 5 in th e NBA in points in the paint. Jeremy Lin. Monta Ellis. Derrick Rose before he improved his 3 point shot. Jordan was never a good 3 point shooter, but much like Wade, they are out of Dion's league.
 

Knicks411

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I think he was the #4 center in that high school class. Cousins was #1, and they had Patterson there, so there was very little PT for him. Just goes to show you Orton could have gone to Colgate and been drafted.
I'm not totally sure I agree with that. Orton was 19th in the RSCI rankings his senior year in high school. Picking a random year, 2006, #19 was Robin Lopez. (Who got drafted). But one spot ahead of him was Stanley Robinson, and a spot behind him was Lance Thomas, neither of whom were first rounders. Taylor King was #24 in 2007!

Anyway, ,the comps aren't great, Orton had great size and that always helps, but it just seems like Calipari never has a recruit come in and underachieve,(and this is where someone points out that I am wrong) which is more than you can say for a lot of coaches.
 

EastCoast2

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I'm not totally sure I agree with that. Orton was 19th in the RSCI rankings his senior year in high school. Picking a random year, 2006, #19 was Robin Lopez. (Who got drafted). But one spot ahead of him was Stanley Robinson, and a spot behind him was Lance Thomas, neither of whom were first rounders. Taylor King was #24 in 2007!

Anyway, ,the comps aren't great, Orton had great size and that always helps, but it just seems like Calipari never has a recruit come in and underachieve,(and this is where someone points out that I am wrong) which is more than you can say for a lot of coaches.
It also helps gravely that there is consistently PT and starting spots available. Cal has been recruiting for the past 6 months knowing that he'll have 5 starting spots open. If JB were recruiting a guard (Archie Goodwin for good measure), what would he say?

"Hey Archie, you'll compete for the 3rd guard spot, maybe get 15 mpg"

While Cal can say

"Hey Archie, at UK you'll start at the 2 from day 1 and be the gunner up top for the entire season. Harrow is a pass first PG and there is no 3rd guard. You'll play 35 mpg."

I'm going to UK 10 out of 10 times if I'm Goodwin
 

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No question Teague is not ready, but Kentucky doesn't have a star coming in to replace him. Teague is actually probably making the right decision, his stock will never be higher.

http://wagesofwins.com/2012/04/08/the-basketball-college-players-guide-to-getting-paid/
According to that Wages of Wins article, Teague gained himself 20 draft spots by being on the Championship team, losing that plus losing 6 spots for every year he ages, he would be in a significantly weaker draft position next year. As a 3-4 year player he might have worked his way back into the first round, but he is basically a 1999 tech stock and now is his time to sell.

That said, he is going to be a huge waste of a draft pick for someone.
Thats an interesting article, but I really don't buy it. I'm not taking a shot at you but that dude lost all credibility when he listed his "right stat line"
  • Shoot as much as you can. Efficiency helps but not enough for you to care.
  • Wrack up the blocks
  • It’s ok to foul, just make sure you’re getting blocks and steals.
  • It’s good to pass but nowhere near as good as shooting
  • Don’t worry about rebounding or turnovers
I'll take the guy who hustles for rebounds, keeps turnovers down and shoots within the flow of the game, not when ever he touches the ball. That hurts offensive flow which in turn hurts your team's success and your ability to make a deep run into the tournament where there are more scouts watching.
 

EastCoast2

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And the "win the title and move up 20 spots" is absurd. You're telling me if SU won the title the KJO would be a top 20 pick?

Title teams usually have top talent = higher picks.

Talented players leave early = higher picks.

There is no "secret formula"
 

Knicks411

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Thats an interesting article, but I really don't buy it. I'm not taking a shot at you but that dude lost all credibility when he listed his "right stat line"
  • Shoot as much as you can. Efficiency helps but not enough for you to care.
  • Wrack up the blocks
  • It’s ok to foul, just make sure you’re getting blocks and steals.
  • It’s good to pass but nowhere near as good as shooting
  • Don’t worry about rebounding or turnovers
I'll take the guy who hustles for rebounds, keeps turnovers down and shoots within the flow of the game, not when ever he touches the ball. That hurts offensive flow which in turn hurts your team's success and your ability to make a deep run into the tournament where there are more scouts watching.

I think that was what teams have valued in draft picks, not necessarily what makes a good basketball player.

It also helps gravely that there is consistently PT and starting spots available. Cal has been recruiting for the past 6 months knowing that he'll have 5 starting spots open. If JB were recruiting a guard (Archie Goodwin for good measure), what would he say?
Yeah, that's why I was worried about Coleman going to UK.
 

Cusefannotindc

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Thats an interesting article, but I really don't buy it. I'm not taking a shot at you but that dude lost all credibility when he listed his "right stat line"
  • Shoot as much as you can. Efficiency helps but not enough for you to care.
  • Wrack up the blocks
  • It’s ok to foul, just make sure you’re getting blocks and steals.
  • It’s good to pass but nowhere near as good as shooting
  • Don’t worry about rebounding or turnovers
I'll take the guy who hustles for rebounds, keeps turnovers down and shoots within the flow of the game, not when ever he touches the ball. That hurts offensive flow which in turn hurts your team's success and your ability to make a deep run into the tournament where there are more scouts watching.
That is based on a quantitative analysis of where college players were drafted and what variables effected their draft position. You can argue with individual variables, but it gives a framework to the draft for discussing things like players "draft stock".
 

SWFLCUSE

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I can't think of one player that fits that mold and is making good money in the nba
 

Cusefannotindc

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I can't think of one player that fits that mold and is making good money in the nba
It is solely about draft position, not success. In fact my original point began on how Teague was overrated.
 

SWFLCUSE

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I see what your saying now. I thought the guy was using NBA earnings as a measurement for how successful a player will be and that if he followed those guide lines he would make "Gilbert Arenas money"
 

Knicks411

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I can't think of one player that fits that mold and is making good money in the nba
Well I think the first one (guys who score a lot but aren't all that efficient) covers a ton of overpaid guys in the league. Monta Ellis for one.
 

Cusefannotindc

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And the "win the title and move up 20 spots" is absurd. You're telling me if SU won the title the KJO would be a top 20 pick?

Title teams usually have top talent = higher picks.

Talented players leave early = higher picks.

There is no "secret formula"
I am saying, based on research, the average player entering the draft sees a 20 draft slot gain relative to their stats, age, height, and conference played in.
 

EastCoast2

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I am saying, based on research, the average player entering the draft sees a 20 draft slot gain relative to their stats, age, height, and conference played in.
Right, but that's simply a function of Kyrie Irving being a top 5 player in HS playing at Duke going #1 vs. a senior from Washington State being picked in the late 2nd round. Just my way of saying these calculations are BS
 

moqui

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I look at Jason Hart playing nine seasons in the NBA and I can't see why Dion can't have at the very least a similar career. I'm not trying to compare the two, but I do think that Dion brings more to the table when it comes to NBA type skills.
Jason had to work very hard for his career, including more than one stint away from the Association. But he had two marketable skills going for him - he was a true point guard, and he was a very good defender. I don't see what NBA skills that Dion has - he's not a point, he is a poor 3 point shooter for his position, and the jury is out about his defense. His only real skill is the ability to drive and finish, but he will not have the advantage of physical mismatches in the NBA - indeed, he is undersized for his position.

I hope he continues to prove me wrong, but I just don't see a long career in the cards for Dion. Hope he gets a lottery selection and the guaranteed millions that come with it, because I have my doubts about his longevity (in the NBA, at least - he could be a superstar in many foreign leagues)
 

SWFLCUSE

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Well I think the first one (guys who score a lot but aren't all that efficient) covers a ton of overpaid guys in the league. Monta Ellis for one.
Ellis may be a high volume scorer but he also averages 6 apg and 3.5 rpg. The play model above say don't worry about passing or rebounding.
 

Knicks411

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Ellis may be a high volume scorer but he also averages 6 apg and 3.5 rpg. The play model above say don't worry about passing or rebounding.
That's true, though the guy plays 40 plus minutes per game; (I was wrong, he's down to about 36 per game this year) you have to get some rebounds and assists. It's not like there is anyone out there who scores 25 points and gets no rebounds or assists. The argument is probably that he wouldn't be getting less if he was averaging say 4 assists and 2 boards instead of 6 and 3.5. Basically, he's paid for his scoring.

Didn't bother looking up his career stats, career he averages 4.5 assists and 3.7 rebounds. As a guard who plays 35 minutes per game, isn't that about the lowest you can average in those stats?
 

Cusefannotindc

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Right, but that's simply a function of Kyrie Irving being a top 5 player in HS playing at Duke going #1 vs. a senior from Washington State being picked in the late 2nd round. Just my way of saying these calculations are BS
Well Kyrie Irving wasn't in the Final Four or finals, but I think it is pretty easy to argue that Brandon Knight and Shelvin Mack both saw their draft stock significantly increase after the Final Four, just as Teague did this year.

I don't see why people take such personal offense at the attempt to quantify things.
 

Cusefannotindc

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Ellis may be a high volume scorer but he also averages 6 apg and 3.5 rpg. The play model above say don't worry about passing or rebounding.
The model is talking about college players getting drafted, and the point is that NBA teams overvalue scoring while undervaluing things like assists and rebounds. There is no reason to attack a model just because you don't understand it.
 

orange03

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Jason had to work very hard for his career, including more than one stint away from the Association. But he had two marketable skills going for him - he was a true point guard, and he was a very good defender. I don't see what NBA skills that Dion has - he's not a point, he is a poor 3 point shooter for his position, and the jury is out about his defense. His only real skill is the ability to drive and finish, but he will not have the advantage of physical mismatches in the NBA - indeed, he is undersized for his position.

I hope he continues to prove me wrong, but I just don't see a long career in the cards for Dion. Hope he gets a lottery selection and the guaranteed millions that come with it, because I have my doubts about his longevity (in the NBA, at least - he could be a superstar in many foreign leagues)
I don't think you're wrong, but the NBA that Jason Hart played in, and the one you're modeling this post after is gone. Dion will have his struggles early adjusting to the size and speed of the game, but I think he's built for what the NBA is today. The league is filtered with guys who don't have a real position and aren't real good shooters now. Obvious improvements are needed, but if anything the kid has shown no fear in putting in the work.
 

SWFLCUSE

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The model is talking about college players getting drafted, and the point is that NBA teams overvalue scoring while undervaluing things like assists and rebounds. There is no reason to attack a model just because you don't understand it.
I understand it fine, I just don't think its completely accurate
 

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