Dion Maybe Lottery Pick--Chad Ford

[Cusefannotindc]

I understand it fine, I just don't think its completely accurate

Considering it has taken 3 posts to explain it to you, I am not sure you do. Of course it is not completely accurate, no amount of data can explain Kahn drafting four point guards in one draft. The fact is it is a very informative look at what factors NBA teams place the most importance on when drafting, if you know of a better one I would definitely be interested in reading about it.

 

[SWFLCUSE]

I definitely think teams overrate raw point totals.

Thats your opinion, but I just don't see it. Every team has their own way of evaluating players.

 

[Knicks411]

Thats your opinion, but I just don't see it. Every team has their own way of evaluating players.

Well sure, but I think Monta Ellis is a pretty good example of what I'm talking about.

You are right that every team has a different way of evaluating players, but I think we are talking more generally; the league as a whole. The Isiah era Knicks were certainly a team that over valued scoring. I don't think anyone was saying every team does, but I do believe there is a trend there.

 

[moqui]

Well sure, but I think Monta Ellis is a pretty good example of what I'm talking about.

You are right that every team has a different way of evaluating players, but I think we are talking more generally; the league as a whole. The Isiah era Knicks were certainly a team that over valued scoring. I don't think anyone was saying every team does, but I do believe there is a trend there.

well, since scoring the ball is the single most important skill in basketball, I think it is appropriate to highly value scoring, and it makes sense to make it a primary focus in most draft selections, especially high draft selections. The other skills can usually be found in the free agent markets (the obvious exception being a true NBA quality point guard). Of course, team needs and other considerations can trump it, but I think putting the ability to score at the top of the list is not a bad basic rule of thumb going into a draft.

 

[Knicks411]

I do certainly think there is something to that, but I also think teams overvalue relatively empty scoring. (Like I said, the Isiah Knicks were probably a perfect example of this). I also should've said there I was more referring to inefficient scoring. I think there are a lot of guys who could put up 18-20 points a game if they got enough shots to do so.

Though I don't want to come off as a total stat nerd; I think there is value in shot creation.

 

[osullfam]

Only in transition? I saw him consistently getting to the bucket in the half court, particularly down the stretch. Dion's first step is absolutely nasty and the it's clear that scouts think it will translate against NBA defenders. If his jump shot gets more consistent, look out.

+1

 

[otto123]

The lottery is possible, but in my (humble) experience, non-bigs often go later than anticipated, not earlier. Flynn was an exception at #6.

The problem is not that Dion isn't talented, it's that he declared in a guard-laden draft year .. competing against Beal, Jeremy Lamb, Deron Lamb, Wroten, Rivers, Lillard, etc...

Unfortunately, as Marsh has taught me over and over, players don't wait until we think their chances are maximized, or they're 'ready', etc... They go when they go. But there are a bunch of guards that may be taken earlier, and if Dion slips past the 1st round, he will wish he had waited.

Dion was the best guard in college basketball last year he's better then those guys

 

[SoBeCuse]

Dion was the best guard in college basketball last year he's better then those guys

No he wasn't. Most pro potential sure but guys like Pressey, Denmon, Tyshawn Tayor, Isaiah Cannon were better, IMO.

 

[reedny]

Dion was the best guard in college basketball last year he's better then those guys

Hey, I'm a Dion fan. And no question he was the best guard in the country off the bench (I think Missouri also had an excellent guard as 6th man). But that's exactly the problem ... it's hard to evaluate a player that wasn't starting and running his college team.

I think Dion is one of the most physically explosive prospects, and one of the best at getting to the rim (even splitting defenders). His defense is vastly improved, especially being top 5 in the BE in steals. But I'm not sure he has the outside shooting stroke that Beal has, or the court vision of a Kendal Marshal or the scoring ability of a teague. That's for the pro scouts to decide.

Either way, it's a tough year to come out at his position ... especially having played 24 minutes a game while other prospects were able to start and run their offenses.

I think these are the guards that will be taken before Dion, the first couple as 2's the rest (except possibly Rivers) as 1's:

Beal (lottery) - SG
Lamb, J - SG

Lillard
Marshal
Teague
Rivers

 

[MyMeloMyMan]

JB found the perfect role for Dion. Sparkplug off the bench. Sit and watch the first 4-5 mins of each half and then come in. The more minutes Dion plays, the more the flaws of his game get exposed, imo. He isn't a guy who "busts it" every play. He relaxed on defense when he felt like it and turned on the faucet when he wanted to go balls out. He isn't the most willing of passers to his teammates. When his drives to the basket and lollipop three point shots weren't falling, he looked useless at times. When he drove to the basket and thought he got fouled...he would argue with the ref as the other team went down court. This kind of stuff doesn't just "go away", its part of his basketball DNA.

In the NBA, he isn't going to be like Beal, who can start for good team. Dion will have to be a sparkplug off the bench for quick bursts of mins. Once the book is out on him, he is going to have to make jump shots. Not sure he is going to be able to count on that.

If he can hit 44% of his jump shots, then...the sky is the limit. I just don't see it.

 

[OttoMets]

Agree with the first more than the second. Obviously this is on the high end, but Dwayne Wade is a horrible 3 point shooter and he does ok getting to the rim. Tony Parker one year was like top 5 in th e NBA in points in the paint. Jeremy Lin. Monta Ellis. Derrick Rose before he improved his 3 point shot. Jordan was never a good 3 point shooter, but much like Wade, they are out of Dion's league.

OK, I'll concede that. Still concerned that it'll be harder for Dion to get minutes at the 2 as a not-very-good shooter.

 

[br801]

JB found the perfect role for Dion. Sparkplug off the bench. Sit and watch the first 4-5 mins of each half and then come in. The more minutes Dion plays, the more the flaws of his game get exposed, imo. He isn't a guy who "busts it" every play. He relaxed on defense when he felt like it and turned on the faucet when he wanted to go balls out. He isn't the most willing of passers to his teammates. When his drives to the basket and lollipop three point shots weren't falling, he looked useless at times. When he drove to the basket and thought he got fouled...he would argue with the ref as the other team went down court. This kind of stuff doesn't just "go away", its part of his basketball DNA.

In the NBA, he isn't going to be like Beal, who can start for good team. Dion will have to be a sparkplug off the bench for quick bursts of mins. Once the book is out on him, he is going to have to make jump shots. Not sure he is going to be able to count on that.

If he can hit 44% of his jump shots, then...the sky is the limit. I just don't see it.

That's a pretty accurate assessment of his game, IMO. Dion certainly has the skill set to have a solid career at the next level, but unless he figures out how to bring the intensity on a consistent basis I'm not sure he will make much of an impact. His shooting stroke is still very inconsistent, and it remains to be seen whether he can finish at the basket against NBA level talent, as he frequently struggled against better opponents this year. I'm hoping he winds up with a team that can bring him along slowly, and I'm hoping he continues to work hard on his shot.

 

[otto123]

No he wasn't. Most pro potential sure but guys like Pressey, Denmon, Tyshawn Tayor, Isaiah Cannon were better, IMO.

They "looked" better because they got the chance to start and didn't have to sit in a zone 24/7

 

[Knicks411]

OK, I'll concede that. Still concerned that it'll be harder for Dion to get minutes at the 2 as a not-very-good shooter.

I don't disagree. I think the size will work against him, as I believe you mentioned as well.

 

[SoBeCuse]

They "looked" better because they got the chance to start and didn't have to sit in a zone 24/7

That's part of it but I believe they were better players and had better seasons. Maybe more complete too. Not necessarily a translate to NBA thing.

 

[reedny]

JB found the perfect role for Dion. Sparkplug off the bench. Sit and watch the first 4-5 mins of each half and then come in. The more minutes Dion plays, the more the flaws of his game get exposed, imo. He isn't a guy who "busts it" every play. He relaxed on defense when he felt like it and turned on the faucet when he wanted to go balls out. He isn't the most willing of passers to his teammates. When his drives to the basket and lollipop three point shots weren't falling, he looked useless at times. When he drove to the basket and thought he got fouled...he would argue with the ref as the other team went down court. This kind of stuff doesn't just "go away", its part of his basketball DNA.

In the NBA, he isn't going to be like Beal, who can start for good team. Dion will have to be a sparkplug off the bench for quick bursts of mins. Once the book is out on him, he is going to have to make jump shots. Not sure he is going to be able to count on that.

If he can hit 44% of his jump shots, then...the sky is the limit. I just don't see it.

For a guy known as a penetrator, his shooting percentages are surprisingly good. This year, he hit 36% from 3 and 48% overall from the floor. http://stats.syracuse.com/cbk/players.asp?id=97406&team=553
Some feel that won't translate -- but I agree with Fraschilla -- I think he could be a better scorer at the next level with the spacing of a pro offense and M2M coverage.

I think his selfishness mostly abated except in transition. In the running game he would look for the spectacular play instead of passing to a trailing guard (usually BT for the putback). But this is consistent with his role as sparkplug/offensive savior - injected into the game to take it over offensively.

In the half court, he showed the ability to pass outside on a drive. His inside passes were often dropped, which won't happen in the pros nearly as much. And he was almost unstoppable off of high screens -- finishing won't be as easy in the league and he'll have to find that floater/mid-range game that he didn't always need in college. I think he will.

On balance, Dion's raising eyebrows as one of the most athletically gifted guard prospects. The issue will be, how does he compare to the other candidates with broader skillsets who can appeal to more teams. I hope he gets taken in the first round by a team with a veteren PG that he can learn from while he adjusts to the pro game.