Dion to Minnesota?

[Ward]

Do you think he opts out though?

I think he might. He's made a ton of money in his career and can make up for the lost money with the Florida tax and endorsements. If they win next year then he has 4 rings. Kobe has 5. He could be drawn to the idea of sacrificing money to help be on great teams as his career comes to a close. He'd have less pressure as the years go by with Lebron and Bosh both really just entering their prime or in the beginning of it. They have money to keep the core together and can keep adding veteran pieces for the minimum. Now all of a sudden if Wade retires with more/same rings than Kobe (he just needs two more and playing with Lebron the next x amount of years gives him a good chance) in a legacy crazed culture he could put himself in a certain category of all time. He already mentioned something similar after their last championship regarding him being put in a certain category with 3 rings.

 

[baggerbob]

That Miami team caught every break in the book to win this year, Rose out for the entire year, New York had 2 starters down most of the year, San Antonio meltdown last 40 seconds game 6. Miami had no significant injuries in the entire season, wade is one hard fall from being out all year, or landing wrong with 2 bad knee's.

 

[CaliCuse]

Why do you all hate Lebron in Miami so much? He's not leaving there. He wants to be a dynasty type player and you don't accomplish that by going from team to team every contract. He's playing for one of the best owners, one of the best coaches and the best gm. He's staying in Miami.

No matter how good James is he seems to lack that "Q score". Cebrities with over the top Q SCORE. Michael J. Fox is one off the top of my head.Until recent events Paula Deen was high. Now its pretty much gone.Carmelo has a higher one than Lebron.A closer more familiar comparison here might have been Jonny vs Devo. GMAChad it before he started hitting his clutch 3s.

 

[Knicks411]

I think he might. He's made a ton of money in his career and can make up for the lost money with the Florida tax and endorsements. If they win next year then he has 4 rings. Kobe has 5. He could be drawn to the idea of sacrificing money to help be on great teams as his career comes to a close. He'd have less pressure as the years go by with Lebron and Bosh both really just entering their prime or in the beginning of it. They have money to keep the core together and can keep adding veteran pieces for the minimum. Now all of a sudden if Wade retires with more/same rings than Kobe (he just needs two more and playing with Lebron the next x amount of years gives him a good chance) in a legacy crazed culture he could put himself in a certain category of all time. He already mentioned something similar after their last championship regarding him being put in a certain category with 3 rings.

Sure, but it would be awfully tough for him to turn down $40 million over 2 years for a lot less than that. If he was a FA or something, I could see that, but to actively turn down $20 million a year (or whatever it is) to take a paycut with the same team; I'm not sure.

I'm not sure I agree he can make up for the lost money with no income tax and endorsements; if he opts in for the final 2 years he'll be in Miami and won't be paying tax also.

 

[Ward]

Sure, but it would be awfully tough for him to turn down $40 million over 2 years for a lot less than that. If he was a FA or something, I could see that, but to actively turn down $20 million a year (or whatever it is) to take a paycut with the same team; I'm not sure.

I'm not sure I agree he can make up for the lost money with no income tax and endorsements; if he opts in for the final 2 years he'll be in Miami and won't be paying tax also.

Yea I'm not sure I would say it's a high probability, but I still think it's a possibility. Even if he just accepts 2-3 million less that would still be a relatively significant decrease in their tax penalty. Very true I didn't think about that lol. There's no way around it then he'd just have to accept a straight up pay cut and Arison is going to have a pretty big bill. I guess it just depends on how much they like winning to how they'll make it work regarding contract structures and such.

 

[realorange]

That Miami team caught every break in the book to win this year, Rose out for the entire year, New York had 2 starters down most of the year, San Antonio meltdown last 40 seconds game 6. Miami had no significant injuries in the entire season, wade is one hard fall from being out all year, or landing wrong with 2 bad knee's.

Agree with all you say. Also, many of the arguments above revolve around LBJ. I don't think it's any kind of guarantee he'll stay in Miami at the end of his contract. Then there is Bosh. If he is supposed to be an important part of the Big Three, I haven't seen much of it. And, as Baggerbob has said, Wade maybe near the end of his career due to injuries. Certainly he is on the downside.

 

[Knicks411]

The Knicks having 2 starters injured didn't really have anything to do with Miami winning the title. (Especially since one of them was Amare and he isn't really that good. They did better when he didn't play).

 

[Alsacs]

If Miami gets Greg Oden to sign a 2 year contract and he stays healthy the Heat will want Bosh to opt out of his contract. D-Wade isn't going to opt out and take less money unless he gets a Paul Pierce like contract extension after the 2010 season. The C's gave Pierce a 4 year 60 million dollar extension with the 4th year partially guaranteed. Wade has 2 year's 40 million he will want 4 years in the 50 million to 70 million dollar range to resign. I don't see Miami giving Wade more than 4 years 60 million dollars just to lessen their luxury tax hit by 5 million dollars, and Bosh isn't worth his money in Miami. Lebron James will opt out and likely resign and get his money or go LA. I don't see him returning to Cleveland. Even though I dislike Lebron James a lot and find him to be a baby and not somebody I root for the only person I dislike more is Dan Gilbert for his behavior after Lebron left. If Lebron wanted to leave he had the right and while the Decision was a joke Gilbert's letter reaction was the bigger joke. Lebron WILL not work for that guy after that letter they can say the feud has mended but Lebron can NOT work for and help that guy win a championship after his behavior.

I just hope Indiana or Brooklyn can beat Miami.

 

[Ward]

If Miami gets Greg Oden to sign a 2 year contract and he stays healthy the Heat will want Bosh to opt out of his contract. D-Wade isn't going to opt out and take less money unless he gets a Paul Pierce like contract extension after the 2010 season. The C's gave Pierce a 4 year 60 million dollar extension with the 4th year partially guaranteed. Wade has 2 year's 40 million he will want 4 years in the 50 million to 70 million dollar range to resign. I don't see Miami giving Wade more than 4 years 60 million dollars just to lessen their luxury tax hit by 5 million dollars, and Bosh isn't worth his money in Miami. Lebron James will opt out and likely resign and get his money or go LA. I don't see him returning to Cleveland. Even though I dislike Lebron James a lot and find him to be a baby and not somebody I root for the only person I dislike more is Dan Gilbert for his behavior after Lebron left. If Lebron wanted to leave he had the right and while the Decision was a joke Gilbert's letter reaction was the bigger joke. Lebron WILL not work for that guy after that letter they can say the feud has mended but Lebron can NOT work for and help that guy win a championship after his behavior.

I just hope Indiana or Brooklyn can beat Miami.

I agree that Bosh may not be worth the big money he's owed. Having said that though he is their best possible fit for their system. They like playing small to create mismatches and spacing. Bosh, despite his bad games in the playoffs, is a really good shooter from 15-18 feet. His ability to shoot is what led to the infamous decisions to keep Hibbert and Duncan off the floor in crucial late game wins for Miami. Then defensively with Miami loving to trap and implement high aggressive schemes Bosh's quickness and agility helps him hedge out on traps and also be quick enough for defensive rotations. There aren't many if any big guys in the league who can do those two things at the level he can.

 

[Alsacs]

I agree that Bosh may not be worth the big money he's owed. Having said that though he is their best possible fit for their system. They like playing small to create mismatches and spacing. Bosh, despite his bad games in the playoffs, is a really good shooter from 15-18 feet. His ability to shoot is what led to the infamous decisions to keep Hibbert and Duncan off the floor in crucial late game wins for Miami. Then defensively with Miami loving to trap and implement high aggressive schemes Bosh's quickness and agility helps him hedge out on traps and also be quick enough for defensive rotations. There aren't many if any big guys in the league who can do those two things at the level he can.

Bosh had 0 points in game 7 against SA. Bosh is what somebody on this board called I can't remember a 6'10" shooting guard. Bosh is not the reason Duncan and Hibbert sat it was dumb mistakes by Popovich and Vogel. I agree he fits Miami's system, but Miami played just as well with Birdman on the floor in the playoffs than Bosh. The Heat don't a need a big to do anything but rebound. Hibbert/West exposed how vulnerable Miami was against teams with multiple bigs that could score. Bosh had nothing to do with the fact Shane Battier, Mike Miller, couldn't stretch the floor against Indiana when they played West and Hibbert together. The Heat won the championship when they won game 3 in Indiana. Vogel leaving Hibbert on the bench in game 1 and Miami's first half outburst in game 3 won them the series against a better Indiana team IMO. I just hope Brooklyn and Indiana can beat Miami next year. Brooklyn with Lopez/KG and Indiana with West/Hibbert will be tough matchups for Bosh/Haslem/Battier to beat in a 7 game series that is why I hope Oden goes to Cleveland or San Antonio.

 

[Ward]

Bosh had 0 points in game 7 against SA. Bosh is what somebody on this board called I can't remember a 6'10" shooting guard. Bosh is not the reason Duncan and Hibbert sat it was dumb mistakes by Popovich and Vogel. I agree he fits Miami's system, but Miami played just as well with Birdman on the floor in the playoffs than Bosh. The Heat don't a need a big to do anything but rebound. Hibbert/West exposed how vulnerable Miami was against teams with multiple bigs that could score. Bosh had nothing to do with the fact Shane Battier, Mike Miller, couldn't stretch the floor against Indiana when they played West and Hibbert together. The Heat won the championship when they won game 3 in Indiana. Vogel leaving Hibbert on the bench in game 1 and Miami's first half outburst in game 3 won them the series against a better Indiana team IMO. I just hope Brooklyn and Indiana can beat Miami next year. Brooklyn with Lopez/KG and Indiana with West/Hibbert will be tough matchups for Bosh/Haslem/Battier to beat in a 7 game series that is why I hope Oden goes to Cleveland or San Antonio.

Why do you think Vogel and Pop "made that mistake"? They both said after the game it was because they didn't think Duncan or Hibbert could close out and recover on Bosh fast enough. Do you think that's an issue if Anderson and his arms length shooting range is in the game? Anderson is a great guy to have off the bench but him as your primary center isn't sustainable for a championship team. Bosh's ability to make jump shots keeps his man honest and not just sag down in Lenrons driving lanes. I already said he had tough games in the playoffs but that doesn't erase an entire career of results and productivity.

 

[moqui]

Owners don't use their personal wealth to finance these teams. So I don't care how much Mickey Arison is worth, he isn't dipping into it. He uses the operating expense and the revenue created by the franchise. Owners and billionaires stay rich because they don't dip into their personal wealth with these sports teams.

You don't understand how this issue works. Here is a little help to read up on it..

you are part way there, but you are the one who doesn't understand how this works at the higher level. Mickey Arison doesn't care if his operating budget is in the red by $50 million for a given year as long as the value of his franchise continues to grow. He doesn't care too much about making five to fifteen million a year through team revenue; he'll make his money by increasing (or, at this point, at least maintaining) the value of the franchise until he cashes out at some later date. He bought the Heat for $65M and, because he has the Big Three and a pair of titles, it is now worth 10 times that, maybe more (estimated value was $625M in Forbes' most recent valuation, back in January). The value of that asset takes a big hit if he blows it up. As long as the Heat keep contending at the highest level and the operating costs (including tax payments) are within a certain range, he will keep the machine together. The only reason to ditch any of the Big Three early will be if there are diminishing returns on the court that effect overall valuation. And, in that case, the move would be to dedicate an equal or greater amount of salary on high level replacements.

 

[Stern]

Wade's made hundreds of millions of dollars already and he's actually kind of a selfless guy. He has good income from endorsements. I actually do think he'll take a significant paycut to stay with Lebron for a few more years.

I don't. They did it once they won a bunch of rings that was the goal. Now its time to cash in and take care of yourself. All those guys will think that way and chase the $$$. As they should honestly! The window to make this kind of cash isn't open forever!

 

[Stern]

Do you think he opts out though?

Yep

 

[Stern]

you are part way there, but you are the one who doesn't understand how this works at the higher level. Mickey Arison doesn't care if his operating budget is in the red by $50 million for a given year as long as the value of his franchise continues to grow.

Stopped reading at this part because I couldn't stop laughing

 

[moqui]

Stopped reading at this part because I couldn't stop laughing

first of all, do yourself a favor and finish reading the post.

second, I don't think they will ever go that deep into the red, but just used that figure as an extreme example.

option 1: the team loses $50M but maintains its valuation
option 2: the team slashes payroll, earns $15M profit, but loses $100M in valuation

 

[djcon57]

I don't disagree with your general pt, Stern if it were anyone else... but you also should note Arison clearly likes being the hip old man hanging out with the cool guys at the club. I think he looks at himself as the new Jerry Buss. He got his money from his family founding CARNIVAL CRUISES. I don't think he'd mind taking the hit if it helped him get some pub for the Heat in the long run.

 

[Knicks411]

Yep

We'll see. He's turning down about $40 million over 2 years.

 

[Knicks411]

I tend to agree with Moqui; $50 million is a lot to lose, but Arison is worth billions. If he loses $20 million in a given season, but the value of the team goes up, I think he'll accept it.

 

[AZOrange]

That jumps about 10 fold than what it currently is now. They will have to pay $150 mill for just a 12 players on their team. An organization like Miami can't afford that. They would be operating in the RED forever and they aren't a rich organization that can do that for very long. NOT TO MENTION, if the league revenues increase in the next year or two the penalty they pay becomes even bigger!!

The team is going to be split up. That isn't up for debate. It WILL happen!

Tax issue aside you're really discounting how much these teams make from tix, merchandise, etc. and they are the 6th most valuable franchise in the league behind big 4 and dallas